DC Coup Analysis Thread 1/

I am doing my 'first thoughts' review & analysis of the Trump attempt of a Dictatorial Coup of America we just witnessed in DC the past few days. This is the first in a SERIES of THREADS. This looks at 'what happened'. This sets the stage

As people are pondering Bill Barr's behavior and motivations, let's do a Thread... there is a method to his madness

Path 6 - Mark Meadows First Thread/1

This is the Sixth Path to take Trump to prison for life. It is named Mark Meadows who is a key player to get Trump convicted in espionage, related to stealing 325 classified documents in Trump's attempt to sell US secrets to US enemies

Path 6 - Mark Meadows First Thread/2

Donald Trump faces 6 paths that EACH take him to prison for life

1. Weisselberg (NY taxes)
2. Giuliani (Ukraine)
3. Matt Gaetz (selling Presidential pardons)
4. Roger Stone (Jan 6th)
5. Tom Barrack (UAE & Qatar)
6. Mark Meadows (Espionage)

Path 6 - Mark Meadows First Thread/3

Note: Mark Meadows is a KEY player on Path 4: Roger Stone, which is about January 6th. And Mark Meadows seems to have flipped against Trump (now in August)

This Path 6 is SEPARATE from those crimes of Jan 6th. This is entirely ANOTHER crime

Path 6 - Mark Meadows First Thread/4

The INITIAL crime in Path 6 is THEFT of Classified documents. Ms Reality Winner went to prison for 4 years holding ONE classified document. Trump stole 325. Even if we ONLY give Trump 4 years on each of those it would be 1,300 YEARS in prison

Path 6 - Mark Meadows First Thread/5

Path 6 goes from theft of 'Classified' documents (up to 5 years prison per document) to theft of Top Secret documents (62 of them were Top Secret = add 620 years)

It includes obstruction of justice, on AT LEAST 103 counts (= add 824 years)

Offered a guy a ride from Yaba to Obalende this morning. Just as we're approaching Alagomeji, uncle asked me if he can drive. Said he's not comfortable being driven by a woman. I parked and told him to come and take the wheel. Once he got down, I just zoomed off. Arrant nonsense

Funny thing is the guy is quite young. He can't be more than 25. How can someone that young have this sort of mentality?

I actually did not think that the guy could have wanted to get away with my car at the time. Now that I think of it though, that's a big possibility. We need to be careful out there. These thieves now have different ways of operating

#NEIOH

1. Beloved Ones!

We Have Important Matters To Discuss With You!  If You Believe This Is A Joke, You Should Leave Now. We Do Not Joke When It Comes To This Planet. AKATU Will Lighten Things To Cheer You. What We Share Now Will Inform You.

1/14 How do e-cigarettes (ECs) affect cigarette smoking among youth? My new paper with @FloeFoxon simulates each scenario and finds out which one best matches actual trends... https://t.co/dBB7kcnTls @jgitchell @mikepesko @SwitchFinder @jkelovuori @TobPolicy @Clive_Bates

2/14 First, let's talk about why this question is so difficult to answer: COUNTERFACTUALS. We can't know the alternate-reality answers, like which smokers would have never started in a world without ECs, and which nonsmokers would now be smoking without ECs as an option.

3/14 So, the best we can do is use fancy/sophisticated methodologies to estimate what would have happened to youth smoking rates in the absence of ECs. In our case, simulation modeling

4/14 First, we look at the declining smoking trends *that were already happening* before ECs came (~2010), and project them into the present. This is our BASE-CASE SCENARIO about what smoking trends would be if ECs were never invented. Actual trends were LOWER than this base-case

5/14 Side note about terminology: We use the term “catalyst” instead of “gateway,” because “catalyst” is more precise about the claim we are modeling (that ECs are used first, and then causally lead to smoking). Whereas "gateway" can include other mechanisms like renormalization.

So much #FactCheckBait being put out by IT Cell today and so many people biting.

What is #FactCheckBait? Fascists putting out tweets or messages with very obvious rebuttal properties. So non-fascists are distracted by rebutting or fact checking them. And the fascists get more name recognition. What have the top sanghi twitter accounts done other than provoke?

Why are so many sanghi bigot handles famous & well followed on Twitter despite having no notable quality other than getting called out by liberals? Cos that's all it takes. If they can fool liberals into QTing or even screenshot-ing them, they become heroes and then are like

Another example of #FactCheckBait. This sanghi wants you to identify them while pointing out the very obvious flaws in their logic. This sanghi is counting on it to improve their visibility. Don't give them that oxygen. Call them out like this, without IDs, if you must.

As pointed out by @bongopondit, peak #FactCheckBait was Ted Cruz saying rejoining the Paris climate agreement was about appeasing Paris not Pittsburgh. He knows it's BS. He's an evil psychopath but not dumb. He wants you to QT him and distract from his insurrection efforts.

What did failure and going broke teach me?
Here are some of the top few things I learnt.
1. You rarely learn things overnight.Honestly I learnt things over a period of time.I failed 6 years back and today I feel,yes I have learnt a few things.There is no hurry. No exam happening

2. MOST IMPORTANTLY. Failure isn't the end and it's ok to fail. It is not your desired state of affairs but it won't end. Learn to pick up the pieces and try for another day. As Scarelett O'Hara "After all Tomorrow is another day"

3. Don't romanticise failure. It is not something you want people to go through. While it's important to remind people, world won't end, don't make it look like its some romantic notion that every successful person should go through. It isn't

4. It's absolutely fine not to be able to talk about your failure. There is no greatness in speaking about it. I do, cause I came out of it.And yet it took me time. I know how much I struggled to deal with the blow. How ashamed I felt of letting all down. It's part of the process

5. Go for therapy. If you a start up person, reach out to people. Today's start up world is different. People help each other. Reach out. There is a world out there willing to help you. There will be people who will shun you (but you will find more of them when you successful)