1/Today in @bopinion, I discuss why America has been producing too many PhDs in recent years, and what we need to do to solve the

2/First of all, many people don't realize just how many PhDs we produce! More than almost any other rich country.
3/And we've kept ramping this number up and up.
4/But the problem begins when PhDs start looking for (usually academic) jobs.

https://t.co/M8hhoap12d
5/The U.S. built a ton of universities and then we stopped.

Professors have tenure.

That means there are just going to be fewer new tenure-track jobs than before. Everyone in academia already knows this well.
6/Here's the market for history professors.

https://t.co/sAwByQikS0
7/Here's the market for anthropology professors.

https://t.co/APb5NbB6Np
8/Here's the market for English and foreign-language professors.

https://t.co/rzzuFsoGCT
9/Now, to make matters worse, college enrollment has been flatlining. Even before COVID-19 came along and kicked colleges' butt.

https://t.co/nsbwhqaoYp
10/And colleges, under huge pressures to cut costs, have switched from tenure-track faculty to adjuncts and lecturers.
11/The life of many PhDs after graduation has thus become "adjunctopia" -- or more accurately, Adjunct Hell. Desperately hanging on year after year, hoping for that big break that never comes.

https://t.co/z9GjZkmAhB
12/Of course, PhDs can go into the private sector. BUT, many doctoral advisors push PhD students toward academia. And grad school culture stigmatizes private-sector jobs as failure...
13/Plus, while STEM PhDs and some social science PhDs can often find private-sector jobs in their fields, many humanities and social science fields don't have good private-sector analogs.

This will lead to underemployment and resentment.
14/And social unrest really is a threat here. Dashed expectations can lead to deep rage at the system. And who better equipped to overthrow the system than a bunch of brilliant underemployed people?

https://t.co/HEp0Hf5Egs
15/Some historians, like @Peter_Turchin, have warned that "elite overproduction" is a recipe for unrest.

https://t.co/23VstFoiAd
16/And the insanely shitty job market for PhDs is taking a massive psychological toll.

https://t.co/Mmuovpg3u5
17/So what do we do about this?

For STEM PhDs, we can have the government employ more. A massive expansion of federal research funding is in the works. We should pass @RoKhanna's Endless Frontier Act.

https://t.co/4Nd91Fcejr
18/But for many humanities and social science fields, a big federal bailout simply isn't in the cards. Nor is the private sector prepared to employ ever-increasing humanities and social science PhDs without severe underemployment.

We need to cut back on production.
19/Some universities are already cutting back on production in these fields.

This will be painful but necessary.

https://t.co/iK92UoN6Zd
20/We need a PhD production system that is more in line with new economic realities -- flat or declining college enrollment, cost-cutting, and the end of the 20th century college building boom.

(end)

https://t.co/o36CkgHRlU

More from We need 3 million vaccinations a day 🐇

This thread demonstrates that a lot of academic writing that *looks* like utter nonsense is merely scholars dressing up a useful but mundane point with a ton of unnecessary jargon.


My theory is that the jargon creates an artificial barrier to entry. https://t.co/MqLyyppdHl

If one must spend years marinating one's brain in jargon to be perceived as an expert on a topic, it protects the status and earning power of people who study relatively easy topics.

In econ, a similar thing is accomplished by what recent Nobel prize winner Paul Romer calls "mathiness": https://t.co/DBCRRc8Mir

But mathiness and jargon are not quite the same...

Jargon usually doesn't force you to change the substance of your central point.

Mathiness often does. By forcing you to write your model in a way that's mathematically tractable (easy to work with), mathiness often impoverishes your understanding of how the world really works.

has written about this problem:

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