#NIFTY Blueline is 20M EMA. One of key support in uptrend. From Sept'18 (peak) and Feb'16 (bottom), current NIFTY CAGR: 8.7% and 14.8%. Same in Oct'21, 16% and 21%. If stays at these levels for 1 year, 4.5 year CAGR will be 6.7%. Something to chew on reversion to mean

To those who thought FMCG goes only one way, investing is super easy. buy quality FMCG at any valuations, do check history, though, its one of best sectors, it does test lot of patience

#Maithanalloys part 2 on valuation n other details will be out this weekend. In case you have not watches part 1, it's here. This is for fundamental investors.

Any guesses which company? Will the resistance of PE will play again?

So, above Rs 250 Cr market cap (thats where I like to play mostly), out of 1168 companies:

> 40% correction : 6% companies
> 30% correction : 18% companies
> 20% correction : 45% companies

Not bad. So, almost evey second company is down by 20% from life time high

TREND TEMPLATE CRITERIA by the Legend @markminervini

A stock must meet all eight criteria to be deemed in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend.

1. Stock price is above both the 150-day (30-week) and the 200-day (40week) moving average price lines.

A Thread🧵

2. The 150-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average

3. The 200-day moving average line is trending up for at least 1-month (preferably 4 to 5 months or longer).

4. The 50-day (10-week moving average) is above both the 150-day and the 200-day moving averages.

5. The current stock price is at least 25 percent above its 52-week low. (Many of the best selections will be 100 percent, 300 percent, or more above their 52-week low before they emerge from a healthy consolidation period and mount a large-scale advance).

6. The current stock price is within at least 25 percent of its 52-week high
(the closer to a new high the better).

7. The relative strength (RS) ranking (as reported in Investor's Business
Daily) is no less than 70, but preferably in the 90s, which will generally be the case with the better selections.

(1/3)

I am using only one indicator in the chart.
i.e DC(20) = Donchain Channel
I use 3 min chart and the DC period is 20, so DC high is basically the last 1 hour high & DC low is the last 1 hour low.
The middle line is the median of high and low.

(2/3)

Donchian channels are mainly used to identify the breakout of nifty/BNF.
We can take directional bias based on the indicator.
If nifty is breaking DC high, can take bullish view.
if it is breaking DC down, can take bearish view.
if it is in between, can trade range-bound.

(3/3)

We can monitor nifty/banknifty futures with volume along with DC.
If the volume is 1.5 to 2 times the average volume and if DC high/low is taken out then it can be a strong bullish/bearish signal.

This is in response to the question by @unseenvalue

If I had to buy 1 stock today, anywhere in the world, no avg. up or down, 5 year holding period (I will make that as 10 year for thesis to play out)

Since I track mainly Indian equities, restricting the choice to this space

Few points to look for
1. Strong macro tailwind rather than headwind, huge growth runway for company/segment. It can't be in a niche space & demand must not be easily substitutable
2. Strong Biz Model, high growth curve (15%+ over the period), strong ROE profile (hurdle rate 20%)

3. Low or no leverage, efficient capital allocation, (read minimal or zero fresh dilution requirements), strong cash flows and correspondingly high dividend payout ratios (consistent dividend history) and finally strong moat and with limited regulatory involvement / no reg issues

4. Promoter quality and intention must be beyond reproach, proven management with skin in the game
5. Capability to manage disruption, and if possible to even profit from it. If you can't be disrupted easily, you will eventually adapt your game to gain scale

6. There must be a possibility of non-linear growth if the scale-up hypothesis gets proven right. It's like an FD with low fixed return plus significant upside optionality. Multiple revenue streams / margin levers / IP that can provide non linearity in growth