The most important question now on the mind of all analysts and traders. Is this a bear market rally or is this the start of a bull move. Retweeting this as I will need a few tweets to explain my view
Is Nifty bullish, or bearish?
— AP (@ap_pune) March 19, 2022
Replies MUST be ONLY with charts, not just 'views', no Russia Ukraine, crude, gold etc.
Can be levels....abv/below
Just technicals....maybe with trend lines, indicators or any other study (EW, harmonics etc)
Charts can be daily, weekly or monthly.
That is not the case now, which holds me back from calling this a clean bull market
More from Subhadip Nandy
Ok here is the explanation. Grab a cup of coffee and read on. If you have not read/noticed this, you will see intraday options movement in a new light.
Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points
To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs
Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM
Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk
In a high IV environment or when the market is very volatile
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) January 21, 2022
" OTM options will behave like ATM options", one will get almost the same delta movement
Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points
To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs
Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM
Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk
Perhaps you have the idea that calling me " 1 lot Nandy" is somehow derogatory and a easy poke at me. Allow me to explain why I look at this moniker as a badge of honour
I have traded 1 lot continuously twice in my life. The first in 2003 after I blew up on my INFY trade. I traded 1 lot ACC fut consistently and made 50k in a month
The 2nd time in 2013. When I suffered continuous losses for 5-6 months due to a variety of psychological issues. Then I traded 1 lot Nifty options consistently for 3 months. After that 2 lots for next 1 month and slowly increased
I have shared these two incidents on my various interveiws and regularly share this in detail with my handholding students when I talk about trading psychology.
This logic of trading 1 lot to iron out trading issues I learnt from the interview of Anthony Saliba, who traded 1 lot in options for 6 months. BTW, Saliba was the only options trader to have been profiled on the original Market Wizards ( I read his interview and used his logic)
Sir itseems people call you as "one lot Nandy".. Is it true?
— Bittu (@nanoobittu) July 16, 2021
I have traded 1 lot continuously twice in my life. The first in 2003 after I blew up on my INFY trade. I traded 1 lot ACC fut consistently and made 50k in a month
The 2nd time in 2013. When I suffered continuous losses for 5-6 months due to a variety of psychological issues. Then I traded 1 lot Nifty options consistently for 3 months. After that 2 lots for next 1 month and slowly increased
I have shared these two incidents on my various interveiws and regularly share this in detail with my handholding students when I talk about trading psychology.
This logic of trading 1 lot to iron out trading issues I learnt from the interview of Anthony Saliba, who traded 1 lot in options for 6 months. BTW, Saliba was the only options trader to have been profiled on the original Market Wizards ( I read his interview and used his logic)
This is actually an interesting question and a correct observation. Many people before you also have made this observation, so I am going to explain this the best I can
I am trading since badla days. There being long meant you had to pay badla / interest and being short meant you received badla. Similar to an options buyer having theta burn and an options seller being theta positive. So the bias among pros were being short bit
Now, as of now I am an options buyer. All my strategies are geared towards options buying, so I have a theta burn continuosly. I do use strategies to cover that a bit, but still the burn is there
Now, let's consider how an options buyer makes money. His enemy is theta, vega can be friend or enemy ( coming to this in next tweet) , Delta is whether his view is right or wrong
Now say I am bullish on BNF and I buy calls and I am directionally correct . As BNF goes up, generally IV will decrease. This leads to a double whammy.
1. Vega hurts me
2. Theta decay increases.
So, the position does give money, but slowly
Ek baat to hai dada, u like mandi over teji.. Don't u... I mean u play both sides bt still... Im ryt \U0001f911\U0001f911
— VaibhavSharma (@vaibhav2631) September 23, 2022
I am trading since badla days. There being long meant you had to pay badla / interest and being short meant you received badla. Similar to an options buyer having theta burn and an options seller being theta positive. So the bias among pros were being short bit
Now, as of now I am an options buyer. All my strategies are geared towards options buying, so I have a theta burn continuosly. I do use strategies to cover that a bit, but still the burn is there
Now, let's consider how an options buyer makes money. His enemy is theta, vega can be friend or enemy ( coming to this in next tweet) , Delta is whether his view is right or wrong
Now say I am bullish on BNF and I buy calls and I am directionally correct . As BNF goes up, generally IV will decrease. This leads to a double whammy.
1. Vega hurts me
2. Theta decay increases.
So, the position does give money, but slowly
Two year back thread on MFI, someone liked this so came up in notifications . Rather than running around 100s of indicators, I have made this my go to indicator under any circumstances and have been using this for years
This thread actually had some great answers , one can learn a lot about the thought processes of different traders from the answers. Please go thru them
What do you think/use as the most robust leading indicator if following technical analysis ? Please answer with reason , I will provide my answer after 2 hours
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) August 12, 2019
( At Delhi airport , bored as hell )
This thread actually had some great answers , one can learn a lot about the thought processes of different traders from the answers. Please go thru them
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The entire discussion around Facebook’s disclosures of what happened in 2016 is very frustrating. No exec stopped any investigations, but there were a lot of heated discussions about what to publish and when.
In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.
In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.
This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.
In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
The story doesn\u2019t say you were told not to... it says you did so without approval and they tried to obfuscate what you found. Is that true?
— Sarah Frier (@sarahfrier) November 15, 2018
In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.
In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.
This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.
In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
1. Project 1742 (EcoHealth/DTRA)
Risks of bat-borne zoonotic diseases in Western Asia
Duration: 24/10/2018-23 /10/2019
Funding: $71,500
@dgaytandzhieva
https://t.co/680CdD8uug
2. Bat Virus Database
Access to the database is limited only to those scientists participating in our ‘Bats and Coronaviruses’ project
Our intention is to eventually open up this database to the larger scientific community
https://t.co/mPn7b9HM48
3. EcoHealth Alliance & DTRA Asking for Trouble
One Health research project focused on characterizing bat diversity, bat coronavirus diversity and the risk of bat-borne zoonotic disease emergence in the region.
https://t.co/u6aUeWBGEN
4. Phelps, Olival, Epstein, Karesh - EcoHealth/DTRA
5, Methods and Expected Outcomes
(Unexpected Outcome = New Coronavirus Pandemic)
Risks of bat-borne zoonotic diseases in Western Asia
Duration: 24/10/2018-23 /10/2019
Funding: $71,500
@dgaytandzhieva
https://t.co/680CdD8uug
2. Bat Virus Database
Access to the database is limited only to those scientists participating in our ‘Bats and Coronaviruses’ project
Our intention is to eventually open up this database to the larger scientific community
https://t.co/mPn7b9HM48
3. EcoHealth Alliance & DTRA Asking for Trouble
One Health research project focused on characterizing bat diversity, bat coronavirus diversity and the risk of bat-borne zoonotic disease emergence in the region.
https://t.co/u6aUeWBGEN
4. Phelps, Olival, Epstein, Karesh - EcoHealth/DTRA
5, Methods and Expected Outcomes
(Unexpected Outcome = New Coronavirus Pandemic)