The most important question now on the mind of all analysts and traders. Is this a bear market rally or is this the start of a bull move. Retweeting this as I will need a few tweets to explain my view

Everyone knows the HH-HL or LH-LL as per Dow theory. This can be a bit confusing on how one marks the Highs and Lows. Long back, I picked up this trick from one of the neo-Dow theorists on what to do in scenarios like this
Simply plot a 5 period exponential moving average on a different panel. A 5-EMA simply shows you a running weekly perspective and kind of smoothens the price where a single spike high/low is not of that much importance
You will see this 5-ema also making HH.HL.LH.LL. So now, rather than focusing on the highs/lows on the charts, focusing on highs/lows on the 5-ema gives a cleaner perspective
As per this charts, unless the 5-ema now closes above 17540 ( the ema, not Nifty price) I will not play this as a bull market. I will deal with this market as a counter move against the major bear trend
More about Dow theory here :

https://t.co/9gBIjv1iqY
In a strong bull market, the 5-ema moves in tandem with price. The tops are broken almost at same time, max a few days apart and sometimes in advance. See the marked examples.
That is not the case now, which holds me back from calling this a clean bull market
Since end March 2020, we have had the first clean breakdown of lows and a Lower High - Lower Low scenario
The common consensus is that moving averages, whether simple or exponential are lagging indicators. So explain this, the 5-ema crosses previous high even before the price crosses the previous high. This is a massively bullish signal
#ITC

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This is actually an interesting question and a correct observation. Many people before you also have made this observation, so I am going to explain this the best I can


I am trading since badla days. There being long meant you had to pay badla / interest and being short meant you received badla. Similar to an options buyer having theta burn and an options seller being theta positive. So the bias among pros were being short bit

Now, as of now I am an options buyer. All my strategies are geared towards options buying, so I have a theta burn continuosly. I do use strategies to cover that a bit, but still the burn is there

Now, let's consider how an options buyer makes money. His enemy is theta, vega can be friend or enemy ( coming to this in next tweet) , Delta is whether his view is right or wrong

Now say I am bullish on BNF and I buy calls and I am directionally correct . As BNF goes up, generally IV will decrease. This leads to a double whammy.
1. Vega hurts me
2. Theta decay increases.
So, the position does give money, but slowly

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