The Feynman Technique—how to learn anything:

Survivorship Bias 101

History is written by the victors. But if we exclusively focus on these successes, we allow survivorship bias to distort our understanding of the world.

But what is "survivorship bias" and how does it work?

Here's Survivorship Bias 101!

👇👇👇

1/ First, a few definitions.

Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures).

When we do so, we miss the true "base rates" of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

2/ When we completely ignore failures, we lose our ability to correctly identify the differences between successes and failures.

Put simply, exclusively focusing on successes may actually inhibit our ability to identify (and replicate) the actions that led to such success.

3/ Cicero wrote on the topic over 2,000 years ago.

An atheist named Diagoras is shown portraits of people who prayed and were saved from death at sea as proof of God's existence.

Diagoras replies, "I see those who were saved, but where are those painted who were shipwrecked?"

4/ Cicero cuts right to the point - we cannot conclude that prayer led to being saved from the sea if we ignore those who prayed and then drowned.

Survivorship bias can lead to a deeply-flawed understanding of cause-and-effect relationships.

Let's look at some examples.

Logical fallacies are errors in reasoning that undermine the quality of an argument.

THREAD: 20 common logical fallacies to learn, identify, and avoid:

Ad Hominem

Latin for "to the person" - an attack of the person rather than the argument.

Instead of addressing the argument and its points and merits, the offender attempts to refute the opposition on the basis of personal characteristics.

All-too-common in politics.

The Texas Sharpshooter

A Texan fires a gun at a barn wall and then paints a target around the closest cluster of bullet holes to create the appearance of accuracy.

Selecting and highlighting evidence that supports the conclusion while ignoring evidence that may refute it.

The Bandwagon Fallacy

An assumption of truth on the basis of the majority of people believing it to be true.

"Everyone believes X, so obviously X is true."

Typically offered without regard for the qualifications or ability of the people in question to validate the claim.

Straw Man

The offender ignores the actual argument and replaces it with a flimsy, distorted, easily-refuted argument (a “straw man”).

By replacing a strong argument with a weak one, the offender can create the illusion of an easy, swift victory.

The most powerful paradoxes of life:

The Persuasion Paradox

Have you noticed that the most argumentative people rarely persuade anyone?

The most persuasive people don’t argue—they observe, listen, and ask questions.

Argue less, persuade more.

Persuasion is an art that requires a paintbrush, not a sledgehammer.

The Effort Paradox

You have to put in more effort to make something appear effortless.

Effortless, elegant performances are often the result of a large volume of effortful, gritty practice.

Small things become big things. Simple is not simple.

The Wisdom Paradox

“The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know.” — Albert Einstein

The more you learn, the more you are exposed to the immense unknown.

This should be empowering, not frightening.

Embrace your own ignorance. Embrace lifelong learning.

The Growth Paradox

Growth takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you ever would have thought.

Growth happens gradually, then suddenly.

When you realize this, you start to do things differently.

The interview process is never fun.

But it’s a real opportunity to stand out.

Master these 10 common questions to nail your next interview:

Question: “Tell me about yourself.”

This isn’t an invitation to recite your resume.

It's a test of whether you can provide a concise, thoughtful overview of your past, present, and future.

Keep it short.

Focus on key decisions and insights that may not pop off the page.

Question: “Why this company?”

Standard test for for shotgun blast applicants.

A generic answer can derail your process.

Do your research. Write down 2-3 unique points about the company that appeal to you.

You won’t get the job with your answer, but you can definitely lose it.

Question: "What would you do in the first 100 days on the job?"

This is a test of your preparation, research, initiative, and humility.

Have a concrete plan for how you would approach your early days.

Be sure fact-finding and learning is a key part of it (the humility aspect).

Question: “What are your strengths?”

Resist the urge to reel off a long list of broad strengths.

Tailor your response to the role and company.

Provide 1-2 key strengths that make you well-suited for this specific job.

Leverage storytelling—bring them to life with anecdotes!

10 Biases That You Need To Understand

= THREAD =

1. Anchoring bias

This is when you base all your decisions on the first information you receive

If I told you my service was $1000

Then you came back a week later and I said $500 you would think you were getting a deal

You can use this to sell your product to anyone

2. Availability heuristic bias

You overestimate the importance of the mainstream media

People make decisions based more on stories and news than real information

If people see there is a problem with public school

Then they will start homeschooling their children

3. Bandwagon bias

You will believe something not because of what you believe but because you want to be part of the majority

This is dangerous

Avoid groupthink and speak up in situations where you feel pressured to agree with everyone else

4. Choice supportive bias

You have the tendency to defend something just because you chose it

Think about IPhone users

They only see the good and avoid the negative sides

If you avoid this you can use it as an advantage to those who can’t

Don’t be a consumer, be a creator

These paradoxes will change your life:

The Brakes Paradox

What allows a Formula 1 driver to fly around the track?

It's not the engine, the tires, or the suspension.

It's the brakes.

Strong, reliable brakes unlock the driver.

Build brakes into your life that allow you to accelerate and hit turns without fear.

The Advice Paradox

Taking more advice leaves you less well-equipped.

Most advice sucks.

It's well-intentioned, but it's dangerous to use someone else's map of reality to navigate yours.

Winners learn to filter and selectively implement advice—take the signal, skip the noise.

The Opportunity Paradox

Take on less, accomplish more.

Success doesn’t come from taking on every opportunity.

It comes from deploying energy on the opportunities that matter—the 10x opportunities.

Time and energy are finite.

Say yes to what matters & no to everything else.

The Persuasion Paradox

Have you noticed that argumentative people rarely persuade anyone of anything?

Persuasive people don’t argue—they observe, listen, and ask questions.

Argue less, persuade more.

Persuasion is an art that requires a paintbrush, not a sledgehammer.

Mental models can save your life.

But psychological biases can ruin it.

Here are 10 psychological biases to help you avoid a life of pain and suffering:

1. Doubt-avoidance:

Doubt and uncertainty make us feel uncomfortable.

And when we don't have clarity, we start rushing decisions to avoid that feeling of uncertainty.

When in doubt, take a deep breath and sleep on it before making a decision.

2. Overoptimism bias:

When we want something badly, we start overestimating our odds of success.

It's why so many people bet on their sports team to win.

It's also why millions buy lottery tickets.

Don't let what you want cloud your judgment of what you should do.

3. Reciprocation:

The tendency to treat others as they've treated us.

When treated well: "You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours."

When treated badly: "An eye for an eye."

Sometimes this tendency can lead to endless conflict.

Resist the urge to reciprocate bad behaviour.

4. Social Proof:

We copy other people's behaviour when making decisions.

Especially when we're feeling uncertain.

This is why so many ads have celebrity endorsements and user testimonials.

Next time you make a decision, be mindful of other people's influence.

14 tiny behaviours that make people instantly respect you more

- thread -

1. Talk less.

Speaking less demonstrates comfort in one’s own skin if coupled with a relaxed demeanour and adds to your sense of mystery.

2. Be relaxed and move slow.

Quick movements and fidgeting make you appear nervous and thus lower status.

3. Hold people’s eye.

Nothing says ‘I’m confident and I am interested in other people’ than holding someone’s gaze, especially for a little longer than might feel comfortable.

👀

4. Talk boldly.

Occasionally say something that needs to be said that no one else is daring to say.

Speak your mind honestly.

20 of the smartest things that have ever been said: 🧵

"Holding onto your anger is like drinking poison and expecting the other person to die.”

–Buddha

“We are what we repeatedly do, Excellence is therefore not an act but a habit."

–Aristotle

"Look at a day when you are supremely satisfied at the end.

It's not a day when you lounge around doing nothing; it's a day you've had everything to do and you've done it."

–Margaret Thatcher

“There are only two great tragedies in life: one is not getting what you want and the other is getting it.”

–Oscar Wilde