BC ICARUSPARADOX

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Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom 4 years, 8 months ago 805 views

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The Icarus Paradox offers a critical lesson on business, investing, and life.

Here’s a simple breakdown:

The story of Icarus is a famous tale from Greek mythology.

Icarus is the son of a craftsman—Daedalus.

To help the pair escape from Crete, Daedalus uses feathers and wax to create two sets of wings.

Prior to the attempt, Daedalus warns his son to avoid complacency and hubris.

Daedalus instructs Icarus to avoid flying too low or too high—cautioning that the sea's moisture or the sun's heat could cause the wings to malfunction.

But Icarus becomes amazed by his flight and soars away.

The sun melts the wax on his wings and Icarus falls to his death.

The tale of Icarus offers a poignant lesson:

Avoid complacency and hubris at all times.

What makes you successful initially may eventually lead to your downfall.

This is often referred to as "The Icarus Paradox”—it shows up constantly in business, investing, and life:

In business, how many incumbents have we seen achieve success with one product, only to be disrupted when the market shifts under their feet?

Overconfidence and success blinds incumbents to the coming wave of disruption.

60+ companies from the 1966 Fortune 100 no longer exist!

In investing, how many successful investors have blown up spectacularly when they refused to adapt to new information?

Success with one strategy blinds the investor to market change or tail risk.

Look no further than the demise of LTCM...

Everyone is a genius in a bull market!

The Icarus Paradox is a cautionary tale for incumbents—for anyone experiencing success.

Remember: You're only as good as your last pitch...

It's also a rallying cry for the disruptors—the incumbent's tendency towards complacency and hubris is on your side in the battle.

More from Sahil Bloom

Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom

Warren Buffett is a treasure trove of wisdom.

But contrary to what you have been told, most of it has nothing to do with investing.

10 powerful lessons for life from the Oracle of Omaha:

Wait For A Juicy Pitch

“You don't have to swing at everything - you can wait for your pitch."

Life doesn’t reward you for the number of swings you take.

Focus on identifying the juiciest pitch.

When it comes, swing hard and don’t miss it.

Just Stop Digging

“The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging."

When things aren’t working, change course and try something different.

Be nimble. Be agile.

When you find yourself at the bottom of a hole, stop digging and climb out of it.

Exploit Disconnects

“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

Seek out situations where there is a clear disconnect between price and value.

This applies to investing, but it’s more broadly a mental model for life.

Identify disconnects. Exploit them to your advantage.

Be Contrarian

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

Following the crowd is easy, but it can be a trap.

Learn to think independently. Come to your own decisions. Develop your own mental models.

Your unique perspectives are your superpower.

Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom

1/ An Allegory of Finance

I have been posting a lot of educational (and humorous!) threads on finance, money, and economics.

My mission is simple: to demystify these concepts and make them accessible to everyone.

All of the threads can be found below. Enjoy and please share!

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Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom

I recently asked my audience: What is the most genius marketing campaign of all time?

I got 2,000+ responses.

THREAD: 20 of the most iconic marketing and advertising campaigns in history:

De Beers “Diamonds are Forever”

Arguably the most iconic, controversial, and impactful marketing campaign in history.

Created the massive, global diamond industry.

(Note: This will be the subject of a future thread…)

Coke vs. Pepsi Superman Battle

Pepsi ran the Halloween ad on the left. Coke responded with the ad on the right.

Game, set, match.

h/t @perfexcellent

The Original Apple iPod Campaign

“1,000 songs in your pocket”

Simple, intuitive, genius.

Starbucks Wrong Names on Cups

Starbucks employees writing the names of millions of customers in hilariously wrong ways to get them to post the images across social media with Starbucks branding.

For free.

h/t @SleepwellCap

Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom

The interview process is never fun.

But it’s a real opportunity to stand out.

Master these 10 common questions to nail your next interview:

Question: “Tell me about yourself.”

This isn’t an invitation to recite your resume.

It's a test of whether you can provide a concise, thoughtful overview of your past, present, and future.

Keep it short.

Focus on key decisions and insights that may not pop off the page.

Question: “Why this company?”

Standard test for for shotgun blast applicants.

A generic answer can derail your process.

Do your research. Write down 2-3 unique points about the company that appeal to you.

You won’t get the job with your answer, but you can definitely lose it.

Question: "What would you do in the first 100 days on the job?"

This is a test of your preparation, research, initiative, and humility.

Have a concrete plan for how you would approach your early days.

Be sure fact-finding and learning is a key part of it (the humility aspect).

Question: “What are your strengths?”

Resist the urge to reel off a long list of broad strengths.

Tailor your response to the role and company.

Provide 1-2 key strengths that make you well-suited for this specific job.

Leverage storytelling—bring them to life with anecdotes!

Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom

21 lessons learned in 2021:

Engineered Serendipity

I believe that some of what we call "luck" is actually the macro result of 1,000s of micro actions.

Your daily habits can put you in a position where "luck" is more likely to strike.

Increase your serendipity surface area.

Engineer your own serendipity.

Pessimists Sound Smart, Optimists Get Rich

Pessimists look at the future and see the doors that are closed.

Optimists look at the future and see the doors that are open—and probably kick down the closed doors, too.

Surround yourself with optimists. The future is bright.

The Exponential Growth Challenge

Human brains cannot fathom the insane power of exponential growth. We consistently underestimate its impact.

When you're on an exponential growth curve—stop trying to set specific goals.

Strap in, keep your head back, and enjoy the ride.

Work Like a Lion

Most people are not wired to work 9-5.

Modern work culture is a remnant of the Industrial Age—long periods of steady, monotonous work.

If your goal is to do inspired, creative work, you have to work like a lion.

Sprint when inspired. Rest. Repeat.

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Have covered:
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2. Workbook
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He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.

This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
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4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.

There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
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How to trade on Expiry day with Nifty straddle?
(System trading on Expiry)

Triple straddle is one of the best and accurate methods for expiry day

If nifty trading at 15720 then will sell three straddles above 50 points from ATM, below 50 points and ATM.

Ex.
Sell straddle 15700(ATM), 15650(ATM-50), 15750 (ATM+50)

Stoploss of 80% on every leg and run your trade till 3 PM

Once SL hit in any Leg just keep holding other leg till expiry with SL (Never or less chance to hit both SL on expiry day)

Trading timing at 9:20 the Morning