Thread on Exit Polls and Voter Analysis: Neither the right or the left should put much, if any stock, in either.

Over the years, after witnessing one horrible blunder after another and the damage they leave in their wake, I truly believe media should abstain from using them.

We often ignore the years when exit polls correctly called the winner, though were still showing serious issues due to at least non-response bias.

Veteran exit pollster Murray Edelman has spoken a lot about this.

Here are some notable, egregious misses.

In 2004, the Kerry Campaign was elated. The Bush Campaign was in shock re Florida. The latter was confident they over-performed exit polls. By night's end, a Kerry exit poll win turned into a historically comfortable Bush win in a razor thin state he barely won 4 years before.

But that still left the Bush Campaign short in Ohio and Iowa, both of which exit polls suggested they would lose.

The loss for Kerry and his supporters was so painful that they continued to argue Bush stole Ohio years after he won a second term.

Why?

Exit polls showed it was mathematically impossible for Bush to win Ohio. That is why Russert and others were openly celebrating before the polls closed.

Hyped expectations leave people entertaining conspiracies rather than attributing misses to known problems with exit polls.

🚨THREAD🚨

Unusual turnout in Democrat-controlled areas where we have also uncovered serious allegations of fraud

President Trump performed about the same in these counties as in 2016

Yet Joe Biden's totals surged where the counting was paused and Democrats were way behind

Milwaukee County, WI

2016:
H - 288,822 (65%)
T - 126,069 (28%)

2020:
B - 317,251 (69%)
T - 134,355 (29%)

That's a 9.8% increase of ballots for Biden over Hillary

28,429 more ballots

Wayne County, MI

2016:
H - 519,444 (66%)
T - 228,993 (29%)

2020:
B - 587,074 (68%)
T - 264,149 (30%)

That's a 13.0% increase of ballots for Biden over Hillary

67,630 more ballots

Dekalb County

2016:
H - 251,370 (79%)
T - 51,468 (16%)

2020:
B - 308,102 (83%)
T - 58,361 (15%)

That's a 22% increase of ballots for Biden over Hillary

56,732 more ballots

Fulton County

2016:
H - 297,051 (67%)
T - 117,783 (26%)

2020:
B - 379,095 (72%)
T - 136,716 (26%)

That's a 27.6% increase of ballots for Biden over Hillary

82,044 more ballots

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Starting an Impeachment Trial

2) It is unclear when and how the Senate may begin President Trump’s second impeachment trial. The problem with “starting” an impeachment trial is that once you start, under the Senate impeachment rules, it can potentially supersede all other Senate action.

3) That’s the case - UNLESS - the Senate works out some sort of an agreement on handling an impeachment trial. Otherwise, once you start an impeachment trial, without a side agreement, the Senate meets six days a week at 1 pm et, Sundays excluded, until the trial is finished.

4) The key is when the House sends over the article of impeachment. That triggers a lot of things.

First things first. The Senate must send a parliamentary message to the House that it’s ready to “receive” the article.

5) This is kind of like a football referee waving his hand at a kickoff returner stationed in the end zone to make sure he’s ready to proceed with the kickoff. Once the Senate does that, the House can send the articles.

But…

WARNING, HEADS UP!!!!
Dear Patriots,
Some of you may recognize my name. I have daily briefing with POTUS and have posted here before a handful of times as a “helper”.
What I’m about to disclose is the most important post you’ll read before the inauguration.

1. Today, 130+ GOP members of Congress will vote to ignore millions of voters and try to install Trump for a second term.

We reviewed thousands of FEC records to find the top corporate donors to this group.

Follow along if interested.

2. Top corporate donors to 138 Republican members of Congress voting to subvert democracy:

@ATT ($2M, 130 members)
@Comcast ($1.7M, 126 members)
@UPS ($1.5M, 121 members)
@Deloitte ($1.3M, 90 members)
@EY_US ($1.2M, 79 members)
@PwC (890K, 71

3. Top corporate donors to 138 Republican members of Congress voting to subvert democracy (con't):

@UnitedHealthGrp (749K, 73 members)
@Delta (710K, 86 members)
@KPMG (693K, 67 members)
@Walmart (679K, 111 members)
@Pfizer (610K, 74

4. Top corporate donors to 138 Republican members of Congress voting to subvert democracy (con't):

@Google (610K, 75 members)
@Amazon (598K, 104 members)
@Microsoft (505K, 83 members)
@Lowes (498K, 69 members)
@BankofAmerica (448K, 51

5. Top corporate donors to 138 Republican members of Congress voting to subvert democracy (con't):

@CapitalOne (375K, 50 members)
@WellsFargo (322K, 55 members)
@AnheuserBusch (302K, 38 members)
@bostonsci (274K, 54

Hubei province, where Covid started, has 57m people and cities of 11m

They locked down completely, closed airports, roads, schools, business for 16 weeks, then opened up

Deaths per million:

China: 3.3
UK: 676 and rising

Uk economy fell over 20%
Hubei is growing at 4%...

China locked down within 14 days of the virus being identified.

It took us nearly 3 months, and our airports still remain open.

We had a series of partial, failed lockdowns, messages from govt that lockdowns were anti-British, govt pals being let off with breaches...

Science was ignored. Decisions made late. We were paid to go out and socialise. Schools were threatened with being sued if they closed.

It's highly likely the new strain began here because a virus mutates faster if it has more chances to spread. So we're endangering the world...

The PM missed 5 COBRA meetings when vital decisions should be made. He took 2 weeks off as the virus spread, to deal with his latest divorce.

His advisor broke the rules, lied openly about why, and got away with it. His govt gave £billions in dodgy contracts to mates...

But opted out of cooperation with neighbouring countries tries to buy the desperately needed PPE our health workers were crying out for.

The govt wanted hundreds of millions on unstaffed sheds, as a publicity stunt, while 600+ health workers, lacking PPE, died...

As I have pointed out in a previous posting, many of the rioters found to their dismay and bewilderment that there was no plan, at least that they could discern, for the mob to carry out that day. 1/63

The only thing they knew is that there had been a call to action--and to a large extent to arms as well--to disrupt the certification of Biden’s electoral college win. 2/63

According to Ali Alexander (formerly known as Ali Akbar) the idea was to show up so angry and in such overwhelming numbers that it would “change the hearts and the minds of Republicans who were in that body, hearing our loud roar from outside.” 3/63

(In fact, there is mounting evidence that Ali and other organizers of the event intended for the rioters to get INSIDE the fenced-in perimeter and even the building itself, which would in themselves have been unlawful actions--but that is a subject for another thread.) 4/63

Ali’s description might well fit the motives of many in the mob that assembled on January 6. But the more interesting and important question is: What did Trump and the activists and event organizers expect (or a least hope) that the *members of Congress* would do that day? 5/63

1/ Many people remark that we wouldn't have survived 4 more years of Trump (ym'sh) - and I agree - but this was a 40 year project of destroying the democratic form of US gov., starting with Reagan, and accelerated from Gingrich.

DJT was to almost the final hammer blow.

2/ Both Roosevelts changed the function of the government from preserving the entrenched power to an instrument to help people survive & thrive

TR was a Progressive, tore down the monopolies, established public health etc. When he left the party, the GOP became what it is today

3/ Wilson took up TR's platform (TR helped by splitting the 1912 vote) and when the GOP won in 1920, they actively tried to undermine the entire new project of what America would do for its

4/ Of course 12 years of retrograde regressive GOP destroyed the economy and led to a worldwide depression which aided the rise of totalitarianism around the world. 1920/1929 and 2020 share so many characteristics

But FDR, thank God, was able to pull us from the brink

5/ For the next 40 years FDR's vision of the government being the support and protector of its citizenry culminated in LBJ's Great Society, finally bringing many of the gifts to the oppressed engine that drove America's prosperity: African-Americans

Okay something I’ve been thinking about this morning: WTF was the actual intention of the MAGAts who stormed the Capitol building?

There’s all these people on Reddit/here saying that this was an organized coup. And TBH I keep thinking that “organized” is a strong word. 90% of them had no aim other than showing up and shouting.

The other 10% are the ones that should worry everyone.

So Trump does his stupid rally, having fired up the MAGAts for actual months, then says they should march on the Capitol and of course they do, then sympathizers among the security forces let them through to the building itself.

SO many people are getting fired over that.

Anyway: so they’re inside and now what? Again, 90% of them have no clue, they just show up and shout and perhaps smash shit or steal, and generally be assholes.

The worrisome 10% had an aim in mind: kidnap/hurt/kill.

But here’s the thing: even that 10% didn’t have any fucking clue what to do. Look at the videos and photos, this was military cosplay. They made merchandise for gods sake. They loudly proclaimed their intentions to try starting a civil war.

If you're one of the people who've had to cut folks out of your life for being Trump voters, please know that I'm proud of you and I know you may feel grief. I'm sorry for us.

#Gaslighting alert:

You may come across bot-amplified activists pitching the idea that #Republicans have been packing the Courts for years, and therefore, hypocritically object to Democratic Party machinations to inflict #courtpacking on America if Kamala Harris and her running mate are elected.

So, is it true, have "Republicans been packing" the Courts for decades?

Well, let's start by agreeing that this, or any, conversation is pointless unless we share a common language. If you think so, then ...

The term "court-packing" was devised to describe a proposal by President #FDR to add additional justices to the Supreme Court thereby increasing the number of justices. His plan wasn't so crass as simply to add justices.

Rather, under FDR's plan, the number of justices sitting on the Court would be increased by an additional justice for each sitting justice that reached the age of 70.

Let’s talk about how the attempted take-over of the US Capitol came to pass. For months leading up to the general election, Pres. Trump sowed the seeds of doubt in the election, repeatedly tweeting that it would be “rigged”. (Thread)

Hyper-partisan right wing media and social media influencers cultivated that doubt. They amplified his rigged claims, and combed the internet for stories that they could fit into their developing theories of voter fraud.

Ballots from 2018 round in a recycling bin? Fraud! Ballots accidentally discarded in a trash can? Fraud! An information card mailed to an old address in CA (mislabeled as a “ballot”)? Fraud!

This started in September and continues today.

If you look closely, you can see the same set of actors mobilizing again and again and again to spread these false claims. From accounts affiliated with right wing media and right wing political organizations to members of Trump’s inner circle. And of course, the Pres. himself.

Here’s a table we generated from months of work at the @2020Partnership of false/misleading information “incidents” on Twitter, from August through November:

My Thoughts: #ClintonFoundationWhistleblowers

(1/15) This country needs more honest, open and aggressive debate and sharing of ideas and opinions so thank you to those individuals on this thread with similar or vastly different views but who have individually committed

Summary of the Michigan Kraken release. Once again, Happy Thanksgiving, America!

COUNT I
Defendants Violated the Elections and Electors Clauses and 42 U.S.C. § 1983.