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I tend to agree with this - of course many things can still go wrong...but (certainly on the UK side) as the list of outstanding issues decreases and as the cost of no deal becomes more apparent deal momentum will increase.


I find it most amusing that people invest so much value in public statements, briefings, tabloid headlines, the tweets of obscure backbenchers etc. Cherchez les fundamentals!

There is a deep vein of analytical pessimism in one particular direction, which, whether correct or not, is noteworthy. On the one hand, a firm belief in the fundamentals - gravity exists - but on the other hand those fundamentals are not meaningful to the final decision.

But gravity does exist! Whether one likes it or not. We do not have wings. Or feathers. And the realisation of the fundamentals will impact the political calculation (though timing differences may apply).

You don’t have to invest any particular optimism or see any virtue in the principal players to make this point.
This is why I just don't buy that 'Corbyn changed politics'. He did his best, sure - but the movement didn't move anywhere, even under his watch.

It's strange, looking back, how much potential was wasted. And not just because of PLP sabotage either. All very sad.


On a related note: I've seen many tweets insisting that Corbyn *proved* Labour don't need donors' money.

Sorry, no he didn't. Because we lost: in general elections, European elections and local elections again and again and again. Despite the massive membership.

He certainly enthused and inspired many... but ultimately, not enough. And he was like Marmite to the wider electorate for all sorts of reasons: some legitimate, others a lot less so.

See also: Sanders. Enthused and inspired many, dragged the platform leftwards, not corporate funded in any way... and never close to winning.

How big is the Tory membership? It's a heck of a lot smaller than Labour's even now... yet look at their majority. Money still matters.

To be frank, Labour will always be the underdogs. Our entire history - which is embarrassingly bad electorally - demonstrates that.

So we have to think differently, act differently (Starmer falls down on both at present) and combine activism and Parliamentary politics together.
30 December 2020 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

Comments on @OptimisticCon's Article - Part 2

We'll pick up with Slide 6 shortly, but we have a couple of stops on the way to make first. Here we go!