Thread on Exit Polls and Voter Analysis: Neither the right or the left should put much, if any stock, in either.

Over the years, after witnessing one horrible blunder after another and the damage they leave in their wake, I truly believe media should abstain from using them.

We often ignore the years when exit polls correctly called the winner, though were still showing serious issues due to at least non-response bias.

Veteran exit pollster Murray Edelman has spoken a lot about this.

Here are some notable, egregious misses.
In 2004, the Kerry Campaign was elated. The Bush Campaign was in shock re Florida. The latter was confident they over-performed exit polls. By night's end, a Kerry exit poll win turned into a historically comfortable Bush win in a razor thin state he barely won 4 years before.
But that still left the Bush Campaign short in Ohio and Iowa, both of which exit polls suggested they would lose.

The loss for Kerry and his supporters was so painful that they continued to argue Bush stole Ohio years after he won a second term.

Why?
Exit polls showed it was mathematically impossible for Bush to win Ohio. That is why Russert and others were openly celebrating before the polls closed.

Hyped expectations leave people entertaining conspiracies rather than attributing misses to known problems with exit polls.
Even in recent elections in which the winner was correctly predicted, the exit polls have overstated Democratic support. That's because Edelman was right re: non-response bias specifically re: older voters and other more conservative voting groups, issues pollsters now fail with.
But the final straw was in 2016, when the exit polls showed Hillary Clinton would win everywhere. It was a total defeat for Donald Trump, let alone failed to predict rather comfortable wins in Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio and elsewhere.

Thus, the use of exit polls...
Thus, the use of exit polls conducted by Edison Research were outright abandoned and replaced by AP and their partners such as Fox News.

The "voter analysis" has been touted as a far more accurate system due to ONLY the call for control of the U.S. House in 2018.

Like polls...
Like pre-Election Day polls and exit polls, the success of voter analysis has been largely limited to that call for the U.S. House.

State-level races in Florida and the Midwest, were not accurately gauged by voter analysis. The 2020 Democratic primary performance was even worse.
In Maine, it was mathematically impossible for Joe Biden to defeat Bernie Sanders, according to AP/Fox voter analysis. Bernie led with every age group, educational group AND both genders in the post-closure wave.

Folks, Joe Biden won Maine.

They're later revised to = reality.
In Minnesota, it was a very similar story. Bernie was going to defeat Biden despite the last-minute endorsement by the home state senator.

Folks, Biden beat Bernie in Minnesota.

Truth is the AP/Fox voter analysis struggled and struggles with the same groups Edelman discussed.
All that said, imagine how difficult it will be this year for either exit polls or voter analysis to report accurate results. Even if we could gauge preference in either VBM or in-person, which clearly is wrong, non-response & social desirability, will be even worse.

In sum...
In sum, voters should NOT put stock or even believe exit polls or AP/Fox voter analysis, and media should be responsible for once and not even report them during the day, if at all.

They serve only to engage in voter suppression, and have become the foundations of conspiracies.

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Funny, before the election I recall lefties muttering the caravan must have been a Trump setup because it made the open borders crowd look so bad. Why would the pro-migrant crowd engineer a crisis that played into Trump's hands? THIS is why. THESE are the "optics" they wanted.


This media manipulation effort was inspired by the success of the "kids in cages" freakout, a 100% Stalinist propaganda drive that required people to forget about Obama putting migrant children in cells. It worked, so now they want pics of Trump "gassing children on the border."

There's a heavy air of Pallywood around the whole thing as well. If the Palestinians can stage huge theatrical performances of victimhood with the willing cooperation of Western media, why shouldn't the migrant caravan organizers expect the same?

It's business as usual for Anarchy, Inc. - the worldwide shredding of national sovereignty to increase the power of transnational organizations and left-wing ideology. Many in the media are true believers. Others just cannot resist the narrative of "change" and "social justice."

The product sold by Anarchy, Inc. is victimhood. It always boils down to the same formula: once the existing order can be painted as oppressors and children as their victims, chaos wins and order loses. Look at the lefties shrieking in unison about "Trump gassing children" today.
Trump is gonna let the Mueller investigation end all on it's own. It's obvious. All the hysteria of the past 2 weeks about his supposed impending firing of Mueller was a distraction. He was never going to fire Mueller and he's not going to


Mueller's officially end his investigation all on his own and he's gonna say he found no evidence of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election.

Democrats & DNC Media are going to LITERALLY have nothing coherent to say in response to that.

Mueller's team was 100% partisan.

That's why it's brilliant. NOBODY will be able to claim this team of partisan Democrats didn't go the EXTRA 20 MILES looking for ANY evidence they could find of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election

They looked high.

They looked low.

They looked underneath every rock, behind every tree, into every bush.

And they found...NOTHING.

Those saying Mueller will file obstruction charges against Trump: laughable.

What documents did Trump tell the Mueller team it couldn't have? What witnesses were withheld and never interviewed?

THERE WEREN'T ANY.

Mueller got full 100% cooperation as the record will show.
Here we go. Tag 4 des Impeachments. Trumps Verteidigung.


Es wird argumentiert, dass Trump nur habe sicherstellen wollen, dass die Wahl fair abgelaufen sei. Die Verteidigung zeigt Clips einzelner Demokraten, die der Zertifizierung von Trumps Stimmen 2016 widersprechen. (Dass es 2016 keinen von Obama gesandten Mob aufs Kapitol gab?Egal!)

Die intellektuelle Unehrlichkeit ist so unfassbar, ich weiß kaum, wo ich hier überhaupt anfangen soll; so viele fucking Strohmänner auf einmal.

Die Verteidigung spielt random Clips, in denen Demokraten “fight” sagen, fast zehn Minuten lang. Weil Trump 20mal am 6. Januar “fight” gesagt hat. Dies ist kein Witz. Komisch, dass sonst die Folge nie war, dass ein Mob das Kapitol gestürmt hat und Pence hängen wollte


“Dieser Fall geht um politischen Hass” Ich mein, ja. “Die House Managers hassen Donald Trump.”

So close.

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