BC POLITICS
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

"Fifty-nine percent of those polled said they believed China will become more powerful than the U.S. within 10 years" - https://t.co/3vN4I1TjwP ... I hate to break it to you but it already is in many areas.

 When I published this work (originally from 2015) - https://t.co/GYOItA3StZ - I did tend to get a lot of pushback from US folk when presenting it.

Six years later, less so.
I expect China to start to tackle inequality this year. It's the Achilles heel of the West. We have no response, nor Governments with the required skill, strategy or practice to respond.

We will ultimately face a more advanced, more wealthy and more equal society ...
... as that example of what "is possible" / "good looks like" shift to the East, we will face a painful shift as we question our own values including our kind of democracy. But in reality, the problem is not with our values but our shockingly poor standards of leadership.
X : Is this because of Trump?
Me : No, this has been going on since the 1990s. There has been no effective counterplay to the long game that Deng Xiaoping started. Just hubris, arrogance and exceptionalism with annual Economist articles on "How China will fall".
X : What can the West do?
Me : Nothing sensible other than to adapt. Longer term, you need to get rid of concepts like the "playing fields of Eton" and revitalise leadership. Start with the whole "Me" vs "We" discussion. It'll be a long journey.
X : Do you think the West will do this?
Me : You can either do good and educate people or you can manipulate perception and behaviour. The latter is now so cheap (thanks social media), that we will probably respond with more manipulation and denial until it is unsustainable.
X : Why do you think this?
Me : Any discussion (including "Me" vs "We") ultimately will lead you to the woeful state of leadership. You're asking me why a bunch of "leaders" are going to try to avoid any discussion on woeful leadership? Because they don't believe it ...
... they get paid lots of money, we live in a meritocracy and hence they must be good. Or at least, that's what their internal logic will tell them. Inertia and denial are powerful forces.
X : I'd argue that even the supposed internet advantage is not so true.
Me : "Today", in that table, was 2015. We're half way through it.
X : How quickly can the West respond?
Me : It's a long game. You'd have to rewire education especially in the US. Even basic economic understanding is distorted through belief in that culture's past success. So, unlikely in your lifetime even if you set off with good speed.
X : What does that mean?
Me : The next hundred years belong to China. Learn to adapt.
X : What about the pandemic?
Me : China "managed" it last year. They're rapidly growing - https://t.co/rt18db5jW0 ... we're still messing around with not doing lockdown properly, failing on test and trace, not learning, arguing over masks and hoping vaccines will sort it all out.
X : You're not very patriotic,
Me : Quite the opposite. I believe that love is best shown by a willingness to have those difficult conversations and not by pretending that everything is great.
X : GDP is a dreadful measure of the economy.
Me : True but generally people only say that when they don't like what it is saying. If they like what it is saying then it's an excellent measure.
X : But is China's growth sustainable?
Me : Watch China start to "tackle inequality"
X : What about Alibaba?
Me : Exceptional economic play, mixed model with context. Hats off to China Gov.
X : West produce better corporate decision quality.
Me : I would look at Haier, Alibaba and others. There are only a few corporates keeping the West in the game e.g. Amazon which Western Gov's are always talking about "splitting up" because ... well, it's the daft thing to do?
X : How does UK fix this?
Me : How to improve our position?
X : Yes.
Me : You need to find your Deng Xiaoping. Your problem is that she is likely to be living on a council estate, trying to hold down two jobs in a pandemic to feed the family and you've got no way of finding her.
X : The alternative?
Me : Do what we always do. Pay some big name management consultancy or think tank to write a report.
X : Will that help?
Me : No but it's all we know. Long path before we can fix this. Just adapt and try to learn from China.
X : Inequality isn’t a problem.
Me : Oh yes it is ... https://t.co/F3lpviYBGc ... especially since we live in a system governed by luck and power laws rather than some form of meritocracy based upon talent and ability.

More from Simon Wardley

Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : Do you think cloud will decentralise?
Me : Already has - started with regions and AZs and is now rapidly expanding into outpost, greengrass, EKS anwhere.
X : No, I mean many providers.
Me : There are two forms of decentralisation - provision and control (i.e. authorities) ...

... what is happening is decentralisation of provision (i.e. cloud everywhere, at the edge) but under centralised authorities (Amazon, Alibaba, MSFT, Google etc).
X : What about decentralisation of control?
Me : Many companies working to a common standard ...

... that was the dream of OpenStack but they blew that on day one creating a collective prisoner dilemma. They are trying to recorrect this with K8s but the cloud has moved on, higher up the stack ...

... so, the idea of a marketplace of many different companies each having authority is ... wishful thinking by past vendors and clients they've hoodwinked. Maybe in 15-20 years we will get another go ... open source is a long game ...

... more likely is many points of provision i.e. companies offering EKS anywhere on a utility basis but under centralised authority e.g. AWS.

So, yes, the cloud is going to edge, has been for sometime but it'll be AWS / Alibaba / MSFT cloud that is everywhere.
FOR LATER READ
Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : Are you interested in container technology?
Me : No. I'm interested in the practices that emerge from industrialiation of technology. It's the practice that actually define the future, not the technology.
X : So, what are you interesting in?
Me : ... long list ...

1. SWARMING (of people and machines)

2. DISTRIBUTED AND INDIRECT LEARNING

3. DISTRIBUTION OF PROVISION (not power but provision)

4. ACCEPTANCE OF STANDARDS (identification and adoption of)

5. INCENTIVES & FUNDING MODELS (worth based / outcome based models)

6. FOCUS ON INTENT (long term goals)

7. MANAGEMENT OF CONSTRAINTS (including enabling constraints)

8. FOCUS ON PRINCIPLES (over beliefs)

9. SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

10. IMMERSION

11. RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

12. SUSTAINABILITY (not just tickboxes in a CSR)

13. REUSABILITY (of components including exaptation)

14. MANAGING INERTIA (models for identifying and managing)

15. RESILIENCE (both engineering and ecological)

16. MOBILISATION (of people and resources)

17. MANIPULATION (of perceptions and defense against)

18. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

19. AUGMENTED INTELLIGENCE (not replacement of human capital but addition to)

20. REDUCTION OF WASTE
TECH
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Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : Can you apply pace layers to maps?
Me : You can but what is where evolves. However, same rules apply to things, practices, data, knowledge and ethical values. All are forms of evolving capital. In the mapping world, we refer to this with pioneers, settlers and town planners.


X : What's the robot for?
Me : Image from an older presentation slide, don't worry it has no relevance.
X : Is this linked to diffusion?
Me : Not simply. Evolution of a single component can consist of many hundreds of diffusion curves i.e. a virus diffuses but it also evolves.

X : Why have you got DevOps in legacy? We haven't even started yet.
Me : That's not my problem. I would take a look at serverless.
X : DevOps is serverless.
Me : Some of the practices maybe co-opted (see ITIL vs DevOps) but the new faction will decide what it is or isn't.

X : I also disagree with your methods graphic.
Me : Do you mean this? As applied to the following map?
X : Yes. Lean is suitable for innovation.
Me : Ah, that depends upon what you mean by innovation. If you mean Genesis then lightweight XP has it beat.


X : I disagree.
Me : Well, I've had 15 years of people telling me that Agile works everywhere or Lean works everywhere or Six Sigma works everywhere and why all the competing methods don't. I have no interest in the conversation. Use appropriate methods based upon context.
INTERNET
Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : When is #mapcamp happening this year?
Me : Wed, Oct 13th.
X : What's the plan?
Me : Right now? Find some funding.

X : How much do you need?
Me : For a 1500 - 3000 person online event? Back of envelope calculation ... about £50k to make it happen. LEF has kindly sponsored it for the last few years but we now need to stand it up on its own two feet.

X : What does that mean?
Me : Like all events, it's a risk profile. So, today the chance of #mapcamp happening is 0%, as we raise some funds, identify costs and find ways of reducing costs etc then that chance increases to a point that we can say ... yep, we can do this.

X : What about ticket sales?
Me : Nothing can ever be guaranteed, so you have to position it to the point that if everything goes wrong the liability is acceptable. Ask me in a month then I'll have a better idea.

X : If it's all about cost, reducing liability etc ... why does anyone run an event?
Me : For the same reason we speak at events. We love the subject. If you didn't then you'd be mad.
SOCIETY
Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
To gauge the maturity of an organisation, use the doctrine table


To gauge how evolved a component is within the value chain, use the cheat sheet


Obviously, the cheat sheet isn't relevant to organisations that haven't matured enough to understand their users, user needs, the details (value chain) nor understand what is being considered (how evolved the components are) i.e. all those phase I basics of doctrine.

Likewise, those basic economic patterns used for anticipation of change are fairly pointless without phase I to II of doctrine in place


and there is no point in talking strategic gameplay or organisational change until you've got most of the doctrine (phase I to III) up and working
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Murray \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
Murray 🇺🇸...
@Rothbard1776
NEW: @GenFlynn interview w/ @newsmax [on his view of the 2020 Election and what should happen next] "First of all, @realDonaldTrump won on the 3rd of November. The things that he needs to do right now [are]: appoint a Special Counsel, immediately; seize all of these Dominion and

2/ other voting machines that we have across the country; he needs to go ahead and prioritize by state, and probably by county [Fulton County, Maricopa County, as an example]. Exactly what they did up in Antrim County, MI, and what they discovered. I think if he looks

3/ at a random sampling of some of these counties, he's going to find exactly the same problem. These machines are clearly, CLEARLY, there is a foreign influence that is tied to this system, and it goes back to China. It likely goes to Russia. Likely goes to Iran. We know that

4/ Venezuela has participated in the development of these machines. There's been problems all over the country with them. Not only with Dominion, but with this Smartmatic software. He's got a couple of options that he can take, and he needs to take them right now.

5/ The President could, immediately, on his order, seize every single one of these machines around country, on his order. He could also order, within the swing-states [if he wanted to], he could take military capabilities and he could place them in those states & basically re-run
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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/Politics thread time.

To me, the most important aspect of the 2018 midterms wasn't even about partisan control, but about democracy and voting rights. That's the real battle.

2/The good news: It's now an issue that everyone's talking about, and that everyone cares about.

3/More good news: Florida's proposition to give felons voting rights won. But it didn't just win - it won with substantial support from Republican voters.

That suggests there is still SOME grassroots support for democracy that transcends

4/Yet more good news: Michigan made it easier to vote. Again, by plebiscite, showing broad support for voting rights as an

5/OK, now the bad news.

We seem to have accepted electoral dysfunction in Florida as a permanent thing. The 2000 election has never really
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Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) The Whitaker scandal is deepening, as it becomes clear that Sessions' Russia recusal was a coordinated sham and his firing an act of obstruction—and that his replacement is a White House plant inside the Mueller probe. I hope you'll retweet and read on for more details.


1/ From 2014-17 Whitaker worked for World Patent Marketing—which during his tenure defrauded consumers out of $26 million and was successfully prosecuted by the feds. His involvement in the scam confirmed he had loose morals and that the feds would never want to employ him again.

2/ Despite the seeming impossibility of a man with Whitaker's background getting a job at Justice ever again—he'd been found to have used his former title as a US attorney to fraudulently threaten consumers with valid complaints with criminal penalties—Whitaker found an opening.

3/ Within 60 days of parachuting out of World Patent Marketing as it was being fined $26 million by the feds, Whitaker was working for CNN and telling a fellow attorney panelist that his purpose in working for CNN was to get noticed by one man—Donald Trump—and thereby get a job.

4/ Whitaker spent his time at CNN making ludicrous statements about the Mueller probe: there was no obstruction or collusion, he said; Mueller had no authority to look into any aspect of Trump's finances or to subpoena him, he said. All the while, he hoped Trump was watching him.
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Caroline - Real Feminists XX \U0001f1ff\U0001f1e6
Caroline - Real Femini...
@radicalhag
Transition, 'inclusion' etc all have political ramifications. Instead of buying into the remarkably masculinist assumptions of queer theory that the dissolution of boundaries is always good, we should be examining them from the point of group power relations.

Transactivists try to conflate identifying as trans with gay marriage, in attempts to demonstrate the progressiveness of their cause, but the comparators are actually transracialism, trans-abledness, identifying as w/c etc.

The diagram shows the asymmetrical nature of such identifications. Identifying down is colonisation. Identifying up is impossible. The most you can do is improve your individual status relative to your class of origin, which leaves everyone else behind.


It also shows that the classes are occupied. If you identify as disabled, or as a woman, or as black, you are demanding access to spaces and facilities which were set aside for people based on a characteristic which you don't share.

How well tolerated this is gives us a clear insight into which oppressions are tolerated. We're rightly paying a lot more attention to racism, so Rachel Dolezal was fired by the NAACP. Other white women in the US who've tried this have been heavily criticised.
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Pirate croco
Pirate croco
@pirate0991
Ok as a French Muslim, i think, i must to explain to EVERYONE what’s this exactly about the “Halal” ban slaughter (1/8)

Recently, many have seen some tweets saying that the slaughter of animals with the "halal" ritual will be banned in France. (2/8)

But, unfortunately, this is the problem of the networks, no one will go digging to know more, laziness trivialized in these modern times surely. (3/8)

Know what you must to know it’s they banned only those who use the electronarcosis then they slaughter the animal with the halal ritual.
Before it was permissible by the French law but not by the European rules. (4/8)

Also theses three mosques (Evry, Paris, Lyon) who’re mentioned on many articles about this, you must to know now, they already cheated with the whole French Muslim community. (5/8)
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Here are 10 low-risk, high return stocks (that we ignore):

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💹Chart with upwards trend Since IPO
💹Chart with upwards trend Over the last 5 Years or since IPO

These are all long-term winners that will keep on winning

What do We Mean by “low-risk”?

A combination of:

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❣️Low Disruption/Dilution/Volatility
❣️Consistent Organic Growth
❣️Assorted Customers/Suppliers
❣️Low debt

1-#CDSL

A depository is a big business and will grow continuously, Its a sustainable business
cause "Market hai toh CDSL bhi hai or rahega"


2- #Dixon

High Management Efficiency with a high ROE of 19.30%
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1/ The first 18 months of starting a company is often life or death. I must've made 5 different companies that each failed within 9 mo. 😭 Each time the company failed I figured out what I could do better. Eventually startup #6 got to $40K/mo by month 18. Here’s what I learned...

2/ Stay focused! Ignore things that are a waste of time: meetups & conferences, meetings with no clear agenda, fundraising if you're not fundraising, reading lots of tech media articles, etc. Every week should feel like significant progress in the first year.

3/ Your first 5 hires will be the difference between life or death. Choose carefully. Be picky. Many of the things we do at the company still are a result of those early hires' legacy. Have fun as a tight knit team. It will change & evolve as you get bigger so enjoy this moment.

4/ Growth may be flat for the first 9 months. It's gonna be okay. Almost every company has experienced this: Airbnb had to sell cereal in-between, Slack failed as a gaming company first, Tesla sold only 147 cars after 6 years! You probably won't be an overnight success either.

5/ In the beginning, do customer support yourself. You will learn a lot about why your product sucks. I did 5,000+ support tickets when it was the two of us. Delight customers & fix things fast while you learn. It will help you build an amazing intuition about your customers.
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Dani\xeblle Stotijn
Daniëlle Stotijn
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NESARA / GESARA explained for all who are not aware.

"The End of Poverty, The End of Debt, The Beginning of a New Golden Age!"

No Poverty, No Hunger, No Debt, Only Global Prosperity and Peace for ALL

NESARA will merge with GESARA

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So I was talking to @gewt about Job: A Comedy of Justice and I came up with a theory that I think explains why Heinlein's late-period work is so kinda-terrible and why I still enjoy it so much


So Heinlein had always been very interesting in the short parts of his novels, like the little snippets inside chapters. He had a very fun writing style, and wrote some fun dialogue with fun characters, right?>
It probably comes from how much of his early stuff was short fiction

And I think what happened with a lot of his longer works is that he'd just start writing fun bits and hope it would end up going somewhere or having a bigger plot by the end. like eventually he'd figure out where this was going, then go back and rewrite it into a cohesive whole

and I'm sure he had editors that'd help this process. No editor would let you publish something as rambly and changing-gears-every-other-chapter as The Number Of The Beast, for example... unless you were God-King Of Science Fiction 1980s Robert Heinlein.

so basically I think what happened is that by the 80s (when he was in his seventies!!) he lost the drive to go back and rewrite and he was too Untouchable for editors to make him.
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2. Although sometimes she’s also an AUTHOR and English Academic.


3. A Hospital Consultant and ex Gymnast.

(Pinterest public profile)


4. A Physician, Doctor, or hospital consultant.

A “Hospital Consultant”, would probably mean a senior doctor, in the UK at least.


5. Hollie changes her Twitter picture and bio so often, it’s hard to keep up with her qualifications.
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