BC PERSONAL GROWTH

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Sumit Garg
@sumitupgarg 4 years, 7 months ago 834 views

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How to think critically:

(mental models and logical fallacies)

Whenever possible, confirm the "facts."

"Fact-checkers are just fake authorities anointed by the media, according to fact-checkers." — @naval

Authorities can make mistakes.

Don't fall for the "arguments from authority fallacy."

"In science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts." — Carl Sagan

Survival of the fittest argument.

Always think of multiple explanations for an argument.

Then think of tests to disprove each explanation.

Whatever remains has a better chance of being right than simply sticking with the first idea.

Two mental models that fit here:

Occam's Razor: When faced with multiple explanations pick the simpler.

Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." In other words, there can be honest mistakes.

Debate all points of view.

"Be skeptical of the side of a debate that is less willing to try to see the other side’s point of view." — @sama

Be open to disproof.

Unfalsifiable ideas are not worth much in the grand scheme of the universe.

"It’s smart to take help of a pessimist to find blind spots in an idea you feel very confident about. That’s their only good use I've found so far." — @kunalb11

Choose knowledge over ego.

Just because an idea is yours doesn't make it right. Accept that others can and will find faults with it.

"The trick to viewing feedback as a gift is to be more worried about having blind spots than hearing about them." — @JamesClear

More from Sumit Garg

Sumit Grrg
@sumitgrrg

How to think about your career:

Phil Knight is the co-founder of Nike.

I found this advice in the last few pages of Phil's memoir about creating Nike.

It's some of the best I've ever received:

1/6

Hit pause.

Think long and hard about how you want to spend your time.

And with whom you want to spend it for the next forty years.

2/6

Don't settle for a job or a profession or even a career.

Seek a calling, even if you don’t know what that means.

If you’re following your calling, the fatigue will be easier to bear, the disappointments will be fuel, the highs will be like nothing you’ve ever felt.

3/6

Here's a warning:

The best of you, the iconoclasts, the innovators, the rebels, you will always have a bull’s-eye on your back.

The better you get, the bigger the bull’s-eye.

It’s a law of nature.

Sumit Grrg
@sumitgrrg

Five valuable mental models

1. Gates' Law
2. Parkinson’s Law
3. The Paradox of Choice
4. Hanlon's Razor
5. Leverage

On startups, business, finance, investing, career, life and whatnot.

Here's a quick guide/refresher:

Law.

We overestimate what we can do in a year and underestimate what we can do in ten years.

It's the classic instant gratification versus long term mindset.

A ten year timeline will set you free.

Parkinson’s Law.

Work expands to fill the time available for its completion.

"How can you achieve your 10 year plan in the next 6 months?" — Peter Thiel

Forgive me for putting it right after Gates' Law. But why not?

The Paradox of Choice.

More choices make decisions hard.

Your friends can't decide what to eat? Don't pass the parcel. Ask them to pick between two options. Same for Netflix. And so on. Saves time!

Eliminate indecision by reduction.

Hanlon's Razor.

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

Not everyone's out there to get you.

There can be honest mistakes.

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sumitgarg.eth
@sumitupgarg

I read two-and-a-half decades worth of Jeff Bezos’s Amazon shareholder letters.

It’s like a mini MBA.

Here I’ve pulled out a free guide for startups, investing, marketing, and “web3”🧵

(It’s a thread, not an ebook)

First, why the focus on web3?

It’s the mid 90’s. A 30-year-old Jeff Bezos is trying to raise money for Amazon. And investors are wondering,

“What’s this internet thing?”

Fast forward, the year is 2022, and folks today are wondering,

“What’s web3?”

Now, a little background…

In 1994, Bezos quit a well paying job to start Amazon.

It wasn’t an easy decision. But Bezos used his famous “regret minimization framework.”

In other words, he didn’t want to be 80 and regret not doing what he really wanted to do.

But what did he want?

Bezos didn’t set out to disrupt retail from the outset.

He simply wanted to come up with a business idea based on the internet and then let the internet grow around it while he kept working on it.

Today, that idea is worth $1.7 trillion and counting.

Moving on to the lessons…

Each year since 1997, Bezos has written an annual letter to Amazon shareholders.

These letters reveal a great deal of lessons and secrets behind his massive success.

So what are they?

Sumit Grrg
@sumitgrrg

I just read all of Jeff Bezos's 23 letters to Amazon shareholders. And here's a thread with just one key-takeaway from each of these letters.

So if you're an artist or an entrepreneur looking to get some insight into the mind of this genius, read this right now.

1997: Focus relentlessly on your customers and long-term growth.

1998: Here are the 3 criteria Bezos wants managers to consider when hiring (to set the bar high):

1. Will you admire this person?

2. Will they raise the average level of effectiveness of the group?

3. Along what dimension might this person be a superstar?

1999: How to think long-term? Think: it's good enough today, but it will get so much better.

2000: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” - Benjamin Graham

We aren’t 10% smarter when the share goes 10% up, nor 10% dumber when it goes down. We want to be weighed, & we're always working to build a heavier company.

Sumit Grrg
@sumitgrrg

I've read all of Jeff Bezos's 23 years of Amazon shareholder letters twice now.

It's an MBA of its own.

Here's what I learned about startups, entrepreneurship, investing and more:

Your customers are loyal to you right up until the second that someone else offers them a better service.

Listen to customers, but don't just listen
to customers also invent on their behalf.

Here's Jeff Bezos on coming up with the Amazon Kindle:

We set ourselves the incredibly audacious goal of improving upon the physical book.

So don't be afraid to set big goals.

And remember that if you don't execute well, it will be done by someone else.

Many of the problems you'll face will have no textbook solutions, and so you should happily invent new approaches.

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48 Laws Of Power Bot
@48_quotes

Hide your intentions not by closing up (with the risk of appearing secretive, and making people suspicious) but by talking endlessly about your desires and goals - just not your real ones.

D.Muthukrishnan
@dmuthuk

The less you've expectation from others, the more you would receive respect in the relationships.

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48 Laws Of Power Bot
@48_quotes

People feel superior to the person whose actions they can predict.

If you show them who is in control by playing against their expectations, you both gain their respect and tighten your hold on their fleeting attention.

48 Laws Of Power Bot
@48_quotes

A Viper crushed beneath your foot but left alive, will rear up and bite you with a double dose of venom.

An enemy that is left around is like a half-dead viper that you nurse back to health.

Time makes the venom grow stronger.

SEE ACT WIN
@SEEACTWIN

One of my favorite characters is Michael Corleone from The Godfather

A key lesson I learnt from him:

'Active listening' need not always involve 'active engagement'
Sometimes, it is best to stay quiet and simply observe
Very intently
With a poker face

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WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan

PETER PADUKAM - THE LEGEND OF MADURAI MEENAKSHI TEMPLE AND A BRITISH COLLECTOR.

A British Collector named Rous Peter was appointed as Collector of Madurai from 1812 to 1828.

Though a Christian by faith, he respected all faiths including Hinduism and also honored local practice

Collector Peter was the temple administrator of the Meenakshi Amman Temple and conducted all his duties with sincerity and honesty and respected the religious sentiments of all people.

Collector Rous Peter respected and treated people of all faiths equally and this noble trait

earned him the popular nickname ‘Peter Pandian'

Goddess Meenakshi Amman Temple was situated between Collector Peter's residence and office.

Everyday he used to go to the office by his horse and while crossing the temple, he got down from his horse, removed the hat and his shoes

and crossed the whole path on his foot.

Through this small gesture he expressed his reverence to the Goddess!

One day there was a heavy downpour in Madurai city and River Vaigai was in spate.

Collector was sleeping in his residence and was suddenly disturbed and woken up by

the sound of anklets and he left his bed to find out from where the sound had came.

He saw a small girl wearing pattuvastrams (silk garments) and precious ornaments and addressing him as 'Peter come this way'.

Mitesh Patel
@Mitesh_Engr

Again sharing bank nifty intraday weekly straddle. How to play by selling straddle.
Mostly will work on Monday to Wednesday. Sometimes on Friday.
Why to pay your money to learn this if u can get it here.
U need only practice.
Let’s go.

Say bank nifty future is at 32000.
Sell both 32000 call and put.
Considering current volatile market lest say premium on Monday morning is 350 on both sides.
Sold with 700 points combine premium.
If bank nifty will trade in narrow range say +\- 100 hold it.
If moving 200 points

then exit previous sold straddle. Sell new one. Let’s say BN moved +200
Now sell 32200. If bank nifty will move here within range then u will get profit through theta decay. Follow same procedure for next 150-200 pts move.

This is only for single straddle sell position.

Now in second case sell three straddle. 31900/32000/32100
In case of 100 points move no need to change.
If 200 + then future is 32200.
Exit 31900 and sell 31200 straddle.
If moving another 100 then exit 32000 and sell 32300. Continue same with 100 points move.
If no move then

it will consolidate between 32000-32200 or 32100 to 32300 and u will get theta decay.

This is for normal move. Sudden big move may come anytime. So keep SL in system.
If u r selling at 350-350 then keep SL in system 475 for both legs.
Practice it. No need to attend webinar.

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Suhail
@Suhail

1/ The first 18 months of starting a company is often life or death. I must've made 5 different companies that each failed within 9 mo. 😭 Each time the company failed I figured out what I could do better. Eventually startup #6 got to $40K/mo by month 18. Here’s what I learned...

2/ Stay focused! Ignore things that are a waste of time: meetups & conferences, meetings with no clear agenda, fundraising if you're not fundraising, reading lots of tech media articles, etc. Every week should feel like significant progress in the first year.

3/ Your first 5 hires will be the difference between life or death. Choose carefully. Be picky. Many of the things we do at the company still are a result of those early hires' legacy. Have fun as a tight knit team. It will change & evolve as you get bigger so enjoy this moment.

4/ Growth may be flat for the first 9 months. It's gonna be okay. Almost every company has experienced this: Airbnb had to sell cereal in-between, Slack failed as a gaming company first, Tesla sold only 147 cars after 6 years! You probably won't be an overnight success either.

5/ In the beginning, do customer support yourself. You will learn a lot about why your product sucks. I did 5,000+ support tickets when it was the two of us. Delight customers & fix things fast while you learn. It will help you build an amazing intuition about your customers.

foone
@Foone

It is 2018 and this error message is a mistake from 1974.
This limitation, which is still found in the very latest Windows 10, dates back to BEFORE STAR WARS. This bug is as old as Watergate.

When this was developed, nothing had UPC codes yet because they'd just been invented.
Back when this mistake was made, There was only one Phone Company, because they hadn't been broken up yet. Ted Bundy was still on the loose. Babe Ruth's home run record was about to fall.

When this bug was developed, Wheel of Fortune hadn't yet aired. No one had seen Rocky Horror. Steven Spielberg was still a little-known directory of TV films and one box-office disappointment. SNL hadn't aired yet. The Edmund Fitzgerald was still hauling iron ore.

WHEN THIS STUPID MISFEATURE WAS INVENTED, THE GODFATHER PART II HAD JUST OPENED IN THEATERS.

So, why does this happen? So Unix (which was only 5 years old at this point) had the good idea of "everything is a file" which mean you could do things like write to sockets, pipes, the console, etc with the same commands and instructions.

Andrew Chen
@andrewchen

👇Thread.

Published a new essay: The red flags and magic numbers that investors look for in your startup’s metrics – 80 slide deck included!

This was a deck that I created on my (longish) interview process with @a16z. It was a long path, starting with meeting folks at the firm 10 years ago. But the purpose of the deck was to explain how I would use my superpower in an investing context

Here's what I explain in the deck. As investors (whether angel or VC) we're often confronted with an up-and-to-the-right graph. Is it going to go up? Or down?

One solution to forecast these growth curves is the Growth Accounting Framework, where you add up New+Reactivated and subtract churned users. In each time period that gives you the difference in monthly actives.

The problem with this is that it's a lagging metric, not a leading one. We need to go one level deeper and look at the underlying loops that drive these numbers, to understand the quality.