Difference between wealth and money.

(a short 🧵 thread)

1/ Here are my notes from @robertwrighter's book - Nonzero: the logic of human destiny. I enjoyed the book very much.

The basic premise of the book is that history has a direction which favors co-operation and non-zero sum games, and that causes an increase in complexity.

2/ Starting from the first replicating molecule which co-operated with an outer layer to form first proto-cell, evolutionary and cultural history is full of examples where two entities come together to survive and progress a lot more than they would have done individually.

3/ This co-operative entity fares much better than two individual entities because of specialization. If two entities are in the same boat - that they win together or lose together - then trust is implicit.

4/ In a non-zero sum game, trust causes entities to focus on what they do best.

For example, eukaryotic cells - the ones animals and plants have - emerged when two proto-cells merged, and one took the role of energy generator (mitochondria), the other specialized in protection.

5/ Some scientists believe that even nucleus in a cell is a result of an early cell merging with another cell.

So M&A is not a recent phenomena, entities have been merging because of common interests ever since life started.

We may be alone in the 🌌 ENTIRE UNIVERSE.

(a thread on this bold conjecture)

🎉 It's also my 1st podcast episode https://t.co/7u2FskrhHi

1/ For my inaugural podcast episode, I interviewed @anderssandberg who is a senior research fellow at the @fhioxford.

I highly recommend listening to the entire episode. It's full of gems and insights.

But if you want key ideas, keep reading this

2/ Before we get to that, here's what we talk about in the hour-long conversation.

3/ Both history and science fiction shows us how the world can be dramatically different than what it is today.

4/ But exponential curves (like Moore's law) make it hard to predict the future because early on they look like linear

Here’s me trying to make sense of the unprecedented 2020 bull rally of stock markets.

(A thread)

1/ The simple answer to why stock markets are up is always that there’s more demand for stocks than supply.

So the real question is: why is there more demand for stocks?

2/ Actually, what’s happening is what should happen.

Central banks across the world, especially the fed in the US, are providing cheap liquidity across the board to institutions.

With interest rates falling to 0% and below, bonds are no longer attractive.

3/ The central banks are injecting this extra liquidity to stimulate economic activity.

They’ve made risk-free investments such as bonds so unattractive that the only place for money to go is towards relatively risky investments which are stocks.

4/ More than anything else, what central banks want is inflation.

They want things to become pricey so wages grow, profits grow and people’s perception of recession goes away because you’re getting more money than last year.

It’s a mistake to assume that open-minded people have weak opinions.

On the contrary, they are actually strongly opinionated because they actively seek evidence contrary to their beliefs which makes them converge on beliefs that are only updated if there’s compelling evidence.

You can find a lot about a company's undisclosed strategy by simply looking at what positions it is hiring for.

One of my favorite characters is Michael Corleone from The Godfather

A key lesson I learnt from him:

'Active listening' need not always involve 'active engagement'
Sometimes, it is best to stay quiet and simply observe
Very intently
With a poker face

Never expose the sweat and labor behind your poise.

Some think such exposure will demonstrate their diligence and honesty, but it actually just makes them look weaker — as if anyone who practiced and worked at it could do what they had done.

This simple idea may appear too obvious to be useful, but there is an old two-part rule that often works wonders in business, science, and elsewhere:

(1) Take a simple, basic idea and
(2) take it very seriously.

The less you've expectation from others, the more you would receive respect in the relationships.

A Viper crushed beneath your foot but left alive, will rear up and bite you with a double dose of venom.

An enemy that is left around is like a half-dead viper that you nurse back to health.

Time makes the venom grow stronger.