Open Question to fellow investors tracking Music Industry.
A business like Universal which controls more than 1/3rd of all published music globally is selling for less than 6x FY20 Sales.
Why are Indian businesses like Saregama / Tips selling for 11x, 20x their sales?
FY 20 Revenues ~ 8.87 B USD or 7.4B EUR
Catalogue of Music includes every international artist you can possibly name
Either Universal is grossly undervalued or Saregama/Tips are grossly overvalued.
Homework for all the interested participants here:
— Intrinsic Compounding (@soicfinance) June 27, 2021
Q1.Why 20% and not 50%+ Margins for UMG
Q2. Differences in dynamics between Western&Indian cos?
Q3. Trends in West vs Trends in India in the industry.
Research and find the answers. My job is done \U0001f601\U0001f64f
If you see the ebitda of universal music its low 20% compared to our saregama 30% or tips 50%. So when you compare earnings saregama is 40x and tips is 30x and universal music is 30x. Also these type of companies are less( low or no capex with excellent and growinh cashflows)
— Srikanth V (@mynameisnani75) June 27, 2021
The rights are different here in India.
— Saket Reddy (@saketreddy) June 27, 2021
Indian labels own both publishing and master rights unlike the global peers.
Hence the 80% EBITDA Margins vs 20% EBITDA Margins for UMG.
Comparing them isn't useful IMO but should be only referred to study the Industry structure.
1. You own both the recording and publishing rights in India
— Saket Mehrotra \U0001f60e\u2615\U0001f4b0 (@mehrotra_saket) June 27, 2021
2. Streaming business in India is 85% of the industry compared to 52% globally
3. You should look at FY21 number for Tips as that is pure-play music streaming
4. Headroom in India builds optional value for paid converts https://t.co/mOBj83uZgH
All throughout the world, largecaps sell at lower valuations than smallcaps. Larger room for growth. + India growth narrative. + More rights with labels in India. + The whole bollywood industry means that imo moat is wider in india for indian labels than at global stage for umg
— Sahil Sharma (@sahil_vi) June 27, 2021
I think valuations based on sales is suitable only when the current profitability does not reflect the true profitability of the business. In the end valuations are based on profits
— Ankush Agrawal (@Ankush__Agrawal) June 28, 2021
UMG and Tips have very different margins and thus comparison based on sales is not a great way 1/2
Why do you think Bill Ackman is pouring in 28000 crore in Universal? He clearly believes that even at 25x EV/EBITDA, it is CHEAP.
— Neil Bahal (@NeilBahal) June 27, 2021
Universal has 20% ebitda margin. Tips has 60% net profit margin :) :) pic.twitter.com/6y8mEoLAU6
More from Tar ⚡
120: It's just a power exchange
250: Electricity in India won't grow
300: It just makes 4paise per trade
350: MBED will erode it's profitablilty
500: Maybe what @itsTarH said about IEX = NSE + Zerodha was right
570: Buys IEX
#JourneyOfAPessimist
250: Electricity in India won't grow
300: It just makes 4paise per trade
350: MBED will erode it's profitablilty
500: Maybe what @itsTarH said about IEX = NSE + Zerodha was right
570: Buys IEX
#JourneyOfAPessimist
Zerodha + NSE = IEX \U0001f4a1\u26a1\ufe0f
— Tar \u26a1 (@itsTarH) June 20, 2021
And just to clarify before people start posting
"Rocket Emojis with to the moon tags"
this business wouldn't hit 3lk cr market cap in next 3 yrs but it can steadily compound at 25-30% YoY for next 10 yrs
At 25% CAGR over 10 yrs, you get a 10 bagger
Keep expectations in check.
"Rocket Emojis with to the moon tags"
this business wouldn't hit 3lk cr market cap in next 3 yrs but it can steadily compound at 25-30% YoY for next 10 yrs
At 25% CAGR over 10 yrs, you get a 10 bagger
Keep expectations in check.
Lets talk results #lauruslabs
— Tar \u26a1 (@itsTarH) July 29, 2021
Always zoom out and view the results, never take a QoQ approach.
Here is how Sales, Op.Profit and PAT looks like when you zoom out.
The upwards trends continues.
No business will move linearly up or linearly down. pic.twitter.com/O9UUt1rEE5
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1/x Fort Detrick History
Mr. Patrick, one of the chief scientists at the Army Biological Warfare Laboratories at Fort Detrick in Frederick, Md., held five classified US patents for the process of weaponizing anthrax.
2/x
Under Mr. Patrick’s direction, scientists at Fort Detrick developed a tularemia agent that, if disseminated by airplane, could cause casualties & sickness over 1000s mi². In a 10,000 mi² range, it had 90% casualty rate & 50% fatality rate
3/x His team explored Q fever, plague, & Venezuelan equine encephalitis, testing more than 20 anthrax strains to discern most lethal variety. Fort Detrick scientists used aerosol spray systems inside fountain pens, walking sticks, light bulbs, & even in 1953 Mercury exhaust pipes
4/x After retiring in 1986, Mr. Patrick remained one of the world’s foremost specialists on biological warfare & was a consultant to the CIA, FBI, & US military. He debriefed Soviet defector Ken Alibek, the deputy chief of the Soviet biowarfare program
https://t.co/sHqSaTSqtB
5/x Back in Time
In 1949 the Army created a small team of chemists at "Camp Detrick" called Special Operations Division. Its assignment was to find military uses for toxic bacteria. The coercive use of toxins was a new field, which fascinated Allen Dulles, later head of the CIA
Mr. Patrick, one of the chief scientists at the Army Biological Warfare Laboratories at Fort Detrick in Frederick, Md., held five classified US patents for the process of weaponizing anthrax.
2/x
Under Mr. Patrick’s direction, scientists at Fort Detrick developed a tularemia agent that, if disseminated by airplane, could cause casualties & sickness over 1000s mi². In a 10,000 mi² range, it had 90% casualty rate & 50% fatality rate
3/x His team explored Q fever, plague, & Venezuelan equine encephalitis, testing more than 20 anthrax strains to discern most lethal variety. Fort Detrick scientists used aerosol spray systems inside fountain pens, walking sticks, light bulbs, & even in 1953 Mercury exhaust pipes
4/x After retiring in 1986, Mr. Patrick remained one of the world’s foremost specialists on biological warfare & was a consultant to the CIA, FBI, & US military. He debriefed Soviet defector Ken Alibek, the deputy chief of the Soviet biowarfare program
https://t.co/sHqSaTSqtB
5/x Back in Time
In 1949 the Army created a small team of chemists at "Camp Detrick" called Special Operations Division. Its assignment was to find military uses for toxic bacteria. The coercive use of toxins was a new field, which fascinated Allen Dulles, later head of the CIA
The YouTube algorithm that I helped build in 2011 still recommends the flat earth theory by the *hundreds of millions*. This investigation by @RawStory shows some of the real-life consequences of this badly designed AI.
This spring at SxSW, @SusanWojcicki promised "Wikipedia snippets" on debated videos. But they didn't put them on flat earth videos, and instead @YouTube is promoting merchandising such as "NASA lies - Never Trust a Snake". 2/
A few example of flat earth videos that were promoted by YouTube #today:
https://t.co/TumQiX2tlj 3/
https://t.co/uAORIJ5BYX 4/
https://t.co/yOGZ0pLfHG 5/
Flat Earth conference attendees explain how they have been brainwashed by YouTube and Infowarshttps://t.co/gqZwGXPOoc
— Raw Story (@RawStory) November 18, 2018
This spring at SxSW, @SusanWojcicki promised "Wikipedia snippets" on debated videos. But they didn't put them on flat earth videos, and instead @YouTube is promoting merchandising such as "NASA lies - Never Trust a Snake". 2/
A few example of flat earth videos that were promoted by YouTube #today:
https://t.co/TumQiX2tlj 3/
https://t.co/uAORIJ5BYX 4/
https://t.co/yOGZ0pLfHG 5/
Great article from @AsheSchow. I lived thru the 'Satanic Panic' of the 1980's/early 1990's asking myself "Has eveyrbody lost their GODDAMN MINDS?!"
The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.
1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!
2) "Repressed memory" syndrome
3) Facilitated Communication [FC]
All 3 led to massive abuse.
"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.
Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.
FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.
For three years I have wanted to write an article on moral panics. I have collected anecdotes and similarities between today\u2019s moral panic and those of the past - particularly the Satanic Panic of the 80s.
— Ashe Schow (@AsheSchow) September 29, 2018
This is my finished product: https://t.co/otcM1uuUDk
The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.
1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!
2) "Repressed memory" syndrome
3) Facilitated Communication [FC]
All 3 led to massive abuse.
"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.
Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.
FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.
