When the upcycle in a sector is very strong
Poorly managed companies also make returns

2021 steel cycle-
SAIL went up from 30 to 120

Now in the current credit upcycle:-
PSU Banks are making money!

But does this mean credit culture has changed for PSU Banks?
No evidence of that

Index Funds have been a red hot equity passive Mutual Fund strategy in the last 10 years!

A thread🧵explaining why index funds should be a part of ur equity MF portfolio!

Hit "Retweet" to educate maximum investors

Let's go👇

(1/18)

Passive vs Active Mutual Fund Strategy

Active Strategy:-

Active investing, as its name implies, takes a hands-on approach and requires that someone act in the role of a portfolio manager.

The goal of active money management is to beat the stock market’s average return

(2/18)

Passive Strategy:-

Passive investing entails a non-active role on part of the investor.

When you invest in a diversified portfolio with low costs and a long-term horizon, it tends to deliver returns comparable to the market average.

(3/18)

What are Index Funds?

Index Fund invests in stocks that imitate a stock market index like the Nifty, Sensex.

These are passively managed funds which means that the fund manager invests in the same securities as present in the underlying index in the same proportion.

(4/18)

The relentless rise of Index funds:-

The assets under management (AUM) of passive products will grow eight times from the current levels of ₹3 trillion to ₹25 trillion by 2025

Passive assets will grow to constitute 37% of the overall assets in the MF industry by 2025

(5/18)

High Copper Prices Are Terrible for EV Makers. This Company Has a Fix. https://t.co/kWu59AUGO1 via @BarronsOnline

A very pertinent question investors ask:-

"When to sell a stock?"

A small thread🧵which can help u in this process

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(1/20)

First things first:-

There is no set methodology to decide when to sell a stock.

Everybody has their own framework.

These are just some pointers that work for us.

One should create their own framework

(2/20)

Many investors have an anchorship bias.

They never sell in loss even if the fundamentals are deteriorating.

Numerous examples like Yes Bank,DHFL,Vodafone Idea can be seen where retail investors are now stuck.

Don't shy away from admitting mistakes and taking losses

(3/20)

So when to sell a stock?

1. Framework for investment not working out:-

Fundamentals of the company deteriorate:-

When we invest in a company....we create a broad vision of how the targets the company will achieve in the next 3-5 years.

(4/20)

Each quarter we just make sure that the company is slowly moving toward the guided path.

There can be delays due to business realities.

If the company completely digresses from the required path!

Eg:-

Since 2018,Sterlite tech saw a sharp deterioration in fundamentals

(5/20)

From HDFC Bank to Kotak to Bajaj Finance to Canara Bank!

How did lenders perform in Q4FY21?🤔

A thread🧵on the Banking/NBFC results

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(1/24)

HDFC Bank:Stable

🏦Profits grow at 18.2%
🏦Asset quality remains stable with credit costs at 1.65% for the quarter
🏦CAR at 18.8%
🏦Gross NPAs at 1.32% vs 1.38%
🏦HDB Financial returns to profits
🏦Watching carefully on how the second wave will turn out

(2/24)

ICICI Bank Results:-Stable

🏦Operating profit grows at 20%
🏦Covid-19 provisions increased by 1000cr to 7475cr
🏦Deposits grow by 21%
🏦Net NPA declines to 1.14%
🏦Capital Adequacy at 18.06%
🏦Retail loan growth at 20%
🏦Corporate loan growth at 13%
🏦Dividend-Rs 2/share

(3/24)

Cholamandalam Investment:Stable

🏦Disbursements decline 13%
🏦Loan loss provisions at 1.4%
🏦Profits up 29%
🏦Positive on Auto financing

(4/24)

HDFC Ltd:Strong

🏦Loan disbursements grow 60%
🏦Month of March had highest ever disbursements
🏦Gross NPAs at 1.98%
🏦Individual loan NPAs at 0.99%
🏦Non-Individual Loan NPAs at 4.77%
🏦Dividend of Rs 23/share
🏦PAT grows by 19%

(5/24)

Aadhar
UPI & now
Open Network for Digital Commerce(ONDC)

As ONDC starts testing in Bengaluru!
ONDC is yet another UPI moment(game changer) in e-commerce

A thread🧵on what is ONDC? How will it revolutionize e-commerce in India?

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(1/21)

How Big is India's e-commerce market?

In India, the Gross Merchandising Value (GMV) for the digital commerce retail market was ₹2.85 Lakh Crores (US$ 38 billion) in 2020.

(2/21)

Kirana Stores are physical in Nature:-

In India, around 1.2 crore Kirana stores, which are hyperlocal neighborhood provision stores, account for 80% of the retail sector, but most of these stores are digitally excluded.

(3/21)

India had 4.25 crore Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) that could benefit from the digital revolution, the paper adds.

(4/21)

Currently, only about 20% of internet users in India are online shoppers.
By 2030, we can expect this to grow to nearly 50 crores,

(5/21)

Patience and conviction

At @CapitalAurum our endeavour is to read the cycle of various industries, locate turnarounds and put bets on undervalued stocks. We gather various data points, not necessarily always captured with conventional methods.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

1/n

This has lead us to get into the turnarounds in many companies and industries. In late 2018 and early 2019, one such visible trend was cement cycle when it was not going through the best of the time.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india
2/n

We recommended 2 stocks in a span of 3 months in Dec 2018 and Feb 2019 at around Rs 270 and Rs330 levels respectively. We started with 3% allocation in each ie 6% in cement sector.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

3/n

The drawdown happened. We saw a max draw-downs of 31% & 45% resp. during the fall of Mar 2020. This fall was much lower than the overall fall in Mid and Small cap indices in Mar 2020. In a way they outperformed the indices and helped our PF too.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india
4/n

As time progressed and we continued to get confirmations on our parameters, we increased the allocation in the sector. The current allocation is 12%. The average price of both the stocks remained closer to the initial buy price.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

5/n

Not fully up to date but still an incredible resource for papers about market efficiency:

If everything is Obvious, Everyone would have made money. However Reality is,Very Few People Make Money in long run,So there is something which is beyond the obvious.
Second Level Thinking is what one needs!!!

This is how Howard Marks Explains Second Level Thinking.
#SA

@contrarianEPS Today Wonderla ran like anything due to opening of its parks. Wonderla has one of the strongest balance sheet in tourism, travel, entertainment and hotel related space. Some unlock investment(not trade) do work if selected properly.

Guy in 1989: "Wow, those Nifty Fifty investors were so stupid."
Same guy in 1999: "Yes, a 250 P/E makes sense for Cisco."

Guy in 2011: "Wow, those tech bubble investors were so stupid."
Same guy in 2021: "Yes, 25x sales and a 450 P/E makes sense for a car company."