🖍 What is investing cycle?

😄 2006-07, 2009-10, 2017, 2021
What fundamental, what valuation, what governance, what history when future bright 🤡

😕 2002-03, 2008, 2012-13, 2018-19
Only invest in good companies, fair valuation, with good history and honest promoter 🥵

More from kumar saurabh

To those who thought FMCG goes only one way, investing is super easy. buy quality FMCG at any valuations, do check history, though, its one of best sectors, it does test lot of patience

kumar saurabh
@suru27

2 wheeler components in an image from #varroc investor presentation

Another one along with this URL if you want to understand it component by component
https://t.co/gUyw05x2AU

kumar saurabh
@suru27

#NIFTY Blueline is 20M EMA. One of key support in uptrend. From Sept'18 (peak) and Feb'16 (bottom), current NIFTY CAGR: 8.7% and 14.8%. Same in Oct'21, 16% and 21%. If stays at these levels for 1 year, 4.5 year CAGR will be 6.7%. Something to chew on reversion to mean

kumar saurabh
@suru27

Prices fall, then, margins/topline takes beating, then, rerating normalizes, then, market loses interest, derating happens.Nothing excites - topline/margin. Market does not find quock triggers. Value emerges. Oneday triggers come, prices rise, growth comes, rerating happens

kumar saurabh
@suru27

#NASDAQ Will NASDAQ crash? How much more correction is to come? How to track?

An extended analysis of the morning tweet is in this Youtube video. Like and retweet for wider reach

morning tweet on NASDAQ

#NASDAQ How much NASDAQ can fall?
Since 2000, this is the 3rd worst fall in NASDAQ
2000: 77% fall from peak
2008: 55% fall from peak
2022: 34% fall from peak pic.twitter.com/MO8KNtzQez
— kumar saurabh (@suru27) June 14, 2022

More from Market cycle

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

18-19% ROE wale being bought by institutions at anywhere b/w 12 and 20x price to sales. Not many liked this space in 2013. Not many hate it today. Social validation in investing is a big curse ...

Ghor ChemYug 😆

#DeepakNitrite valuation is most attractive in the space...

growth will be most explosive in the space... pic.twitter.com/8VYdWwFApY
— jeevan patwa (@jeevanpatwa) June 30, 2021

Maitrey Patel
@MaitreyPatel11

@contrarianEPS Today Wonderla ran like anything due to opening of its parks. Wonderla has one of the strongest balance sheet in tourism, travel, entertainment and hotel related space. Some unlock investment(not trade) do work if selected properly.

Andrew Kuhn
@FocusedCompound

Always read the oldest 10-K you can find on a company

Reading the oldest 10-K will give you added perspective on the business and it'll get you thinking about how the business has changed over time/how it will change in the future

D.Muthukrishnan
@dmuthuk

Good time to buy is when a theme or segment is ignored by the market and not when it is popular.

When you buy what is popular when it is popular, need to forego returns for few years.

Aurum Capital
@CapitalAurum

Patience and conviction

At @CapitalAurum our endeavour is to read the cycle of various industries, locate turnarounds and put bets on undervalued stocks. We gather various data points, not necessarily always captured with conventional methods.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

1/n

This has lead us to get into the turnarounds in many companies and industries. In late 2018 and early 2019, one such visible trend was cement cycle when it was not going through the best of the time.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india
2/n

We recommended 2 stocks in a span of 3 months in Dec 2018 and Feb 2019 at around Rs 270 and Rs330 levels respectively. We started with 3% allocation in each ie 6% in cement sector.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

3/n

The drawdown happened. We saw a max draw-downs of 31% & 45% resp. during the fall of Mar 2020. This fall was much lower than the overall fall in Mid and Small cap indices in Mar 2020. In a way they outperformed the indices and helped our PF too.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india
4/n

As time progressed and we continued to get confirmations on our parameters, we increased the allocation in the sector. The current allocation is 12%. The average price of both the stocks remained closer to the initial buy price.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

5/n

If u are looking to enter a scrip just before the breakout
what would u look for?
How would u identify scrips just before breakout?

Here are a few pointers
Carefully understand the them and use at ur own discretion
(All comments r compiled from a question i posed)

1/23

Price is testing the same resistance repeatedly since long.
But now in recent times it's forming multiple candles near the same resistance with low volume.
Observe it and see for opposite move.
As soon as u get a positive candle, get in to it.

2/23

1. Volume buildup (vol > when resistance point created) along with, increase in OI, increase in delivery % on HTF
2. On LTF, price stalling around breakout area for at least 1-2hr.
3. No major events.

3/23

Stock reaching breakout LVL with HL-HH
Contraction of price and volume near it especially near 20 days ma.
If there is any breach of the latest HL it should be followed by a bullish candle with good volume.
Left side of the chart has a rally with a very steep slope of ma.

4/23

Number of wide range green bars with high volumes.
If stock is at its ATH then it adds more conviction bcz there wont b supply after that point

Consolidation below the resistance, volume of the candles & strong bullish candle closing at near highs just below the resistance

5/23

Jaynesh Kasliwal
@JayneshKasliwal

A simple #swingtrading strategy
1. Whenever you see a stock in strong uptrend it will tend to take support on its 21 ema.
2. Always look whether the stock has taken support previously.
@kuttrapali @rohanshah619 @chartmojo @chartworldat
#adaniports #balajiamine #jswsteel

3. 21 ema will act as dynamic support in a trending market
4. Risk: Reward is favourable in such setups
5. 50 ema can also act as support which can be kept as stoploss for swing trading
6. Volume should be less during pullbacks .
#nifty50 #stockmarket #CHARTS

$Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193$

Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson

@EricTopol @NBA @StephenKissler @yhgrad B.1.1.7 reveals clearly that SARS-CoV-2 is reverting to its original pre-outbreak condition, i.e. adapted to transgenic hACE2 mice (either Baric's BALB/c ones or others used at WIV labs during chimeric bat coronavirus experiments aimed at developing a pan betacoronavirus vaccine)

@NBA @StephenKissler @yhgrad 1. From Day 1, SARS-COV-2 was very well adapted to humans .....and transgenic hACE2 Mice

1. From Day 1, SARS-COV-2 was very well adapted to humans .....and transgenic hACE2 Mice
"we generated a mouse model expressing hACE2 by using CRISPR/Cas9 knockin technology. In comparison with wild-type C57BL/6 mice, both young & aged hACE2 mice sustained high viral loads... pic.twitter.com/j94XtSkscj
— Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193 (@BillyBostickson) January 30, 2021

@NBA @StephenKissler @yhgrad 2. High Probability of serial passaging in Transgenic Mice expressing hACE2 in genesis of SARS-COV-2

1. High Probability of serial passaging in Transgenic Mice expressing hACE2 in genesis of SARS-COV-2!
2 papers:
Human\u2013viral molecular mimicryhttps://t.co/irfH0Zgrve
Molecular Mimicryhttps://t.co/yLQoUtfS6s https://t.co/lsCv2iMEQz
— Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193 (@BillyBostickson) January 2, 2021

@NBA @StephenKissler @yhgrad B.1.1.7 has an unusually large number of genetic changes, ... found to date in mouse-adapted SARS-CoV2 and is also seen in ferret infections.
https://t.co/9Z4oJmkcKj

@NBA @StephenKissler @yhgrad We adapted a clinical isolate of SARS-CoV-2 by serial passaging in the ... Thus, this mouse-adapted strain and associated challenge model should be ... (B) SARS-CoV-2 genomic RNA loads in mouse lung homogenates at P0 to P6.
https://t.co/I90OOCJg7o