Excellent article on Investor psychology & Market cycles based on Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle".

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

My fav pts 👇
continued...
Excellent pts 👇

✔️Mania and risk
"The combination of feedback loops and irrational exuberance, where newfound expectations and enthusiasm, encourages investors to bid up and rationalize extraordinary growth in asset prices.
By contrast, during periods of fear and pessimism, many face difficulties with identifying potential future value beyond the immediate-term.

An understanding of where attitudes to risk sits within the current investor psychology cycle can be a useful knowledge advantage.
Markets may misprice assets on a risk-adjusted basis as society swings along the pendulum of psychology.

Marks believes that the biggest source of investment risk is when investors believe that there are no risks at all.
✔️Contrarianism
It is helpful to consider the extent to which optimism or pessimism is incorporated into current asset prices. Skepticism is needed when mass optimism or pessimism is in excess. Contrarianism at the right moments is an important ingredient for successful investing
The rational, analytical and unemotional investor that finds balance between defensiveness and aggressiveness, particularly during periods of mania, is more likely to find success."
My 2 cents - For individual investors, it's a futile effort to predict the Macro but there's a lot we can glean from what is already happening in the Mkts, and how we can posture our Portfolio for offense/defense (on the edges), especially when there's excessive fear/froth in Mkt
Inability to predict the Macro shouldn't stop us from learning more about Business, Credit & Economic cycles and being aware that they can affect Markets in both directions, and impacting the discount/premiums to the Valuations of Companies (far away from their intrinsic values).

More from Ram Bhupatiraju

Happy 2⃣0⃣2⃣1⃣ to all.🎇

For any Learning machines out there, here are a list of my fav online investing resources. Feel free to add yours.

Let's dive in.
⬇️⬇️⬇️

Investing Services

✔️ @themotleyfool - @TMFStockAdvisor & @TMFRuleBreakers services

✔️ @7investing

✔️ @investing_city
https://t.co/9aUK1Tclw4

✔️ @MorningstarInc Premium

✔️ @SeekingAlpha Marketplaces (Check your area of interest, Free trials, Quality, track record...)

General Finance/Investing

✔️ @morganhousel
https://t.co/f1joTRaG55

✔️ @dollarsanddata
https://t.co/Mj1owkzRc8

✔️ @awealthofcs
https://t.co/y81KHfh8cn

✔️ @iancassel
https://t.co/KEMTBHa8Qk

✔️ @InvestorAmnesia
https://t.co/zFL3H2dk6s

✔️

Tech focused

✔️ @stratechery
https://t.co/VsNwRStY9C

✔️ @bgurley
https://t.co/NKXGtaB6HQ

✔️ @CBinsights
https://t.co/H77hNp2X5R

✔️ @benedictevans
https://t.co/nyOlasCY1o

✔️

Tech Deep dives

✔️ @StackInvesting
https://t.co/WQ1yBYzT2m

✔️ @hhhypergrowth
https://t.co/kcLKITRLz1

✔️ @Beth_Kindig
https://t.co/CjhLRdP7Rh

✔️ @SeifelCapital
https://t.co/CXXG5PY0xX

✔️ @borrowed_ideas

More from Investing

You May Also Like

Recently, the @CNIL issued a decision regarding the GDPR compliance of an unknown French adtech company named "Vectaury". It may seem like small fry, but the decision has potential wide-ranging impacts for Google, the IAB framework, and today's adtech. It's thread time! 👇

It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details):
https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha

I've read it so you needn't!

Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.

The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.

Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.