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Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju 3 years, 10 months ago 853 views

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Excellent article on Investor psychology & Market cycles based on Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle".

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

My fav pts 👇

continued...

Excellent pts 👇

✔️Mania and risk
"The combination of feedback loops and irrational exuberance, where newfound expectations and enthusiasm, encourages investors to bid up and rationalize extraordinary growth in asset prices.

By contrast, during periods of fear and pessimism, many face difficulties with identifying potential future value beyond the immediate-term.

An understanding of where attitudes to risk sits within the current investor psychology cycle can be a useful knowledge advantage.

Markets may misprice assets on a risk-adjusted basis as society swings along the pendulum of psychology.

Marks believes that the biggest source of investment risk is when investors believe that there are no risks at all.

✔️Contrarianism
It is helpful to consider the extent to which optimism or pessimism is incorporated into current asset prices. Skepticism is needed when mass optimism or pessimism is in excess. Contrarianism at the right moments is an important ingredient for successful investing

The rational, analytical and unemotional investor that finds balance between defensiveness and aggressiveness, particularly during periods of mania, is more likely to find success."

My 2 cents - For individual investors, it's a futile effort to predict the Macro but there's a lot we can glean from what is already happening in the Mkts, and how we can posture our Portfolio for offense/defense (on the edges), especially when there's excessive fear/froth in Mkt

Inability to predict the Macro shouldn't stop us from learning more about Business, Credit & Economic cycles and being aware that they can affect Markets in both directions, and impacting the discount/premiums to the Valuations of Companies (far away from their intrinsic values).

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Ram Bhupatiraju
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Phenomenal compilation of summaries of🔟important Business/Finance/Investing books. h/t @EdelweissFin 👏
An excellent weekend read.👍

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid @saxena_puru

https://t.co/Nl4eWteJKK

Snapshots of the Key Takeaways of the books discussed.

1⃣ "A Piece of the Action" is an excellent book to understand the Finance Industry evolution in the US.

2⃣ The obvious classic "The Intelligent Investor".

3⃣ Ray Dalio's "Principles"

4⃣ Howard Marks' "The Most Important Thing"

5⃣ "Thinking Fast and Slow" is a good book on Behavioral Finance.

6⃣ Another obvious classic "One Up on Wall Street"

7⃣ "The Little Book of Behavioral Investing" is another good behavioral finance book.

8⃣ "The Black Swan" by Taleb. A very important book about unpredictability and cautioning against over-relying on Models/predictions.

9⃣ "The Millionaire Next Door". I haven't read it, but hear it's a good personal Finance book.

🔟"Nudge" about improving decision making.

Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

Sharing the latest holdings and some random thoughts.

@FromValue @dhaval_kotecha @SeifelCapital @saxena_puru @BahamaBen9 @richard_chu97 @TMFJMo @7Innovator @investing_city @SagaPartners @adventuresinfi

Individual Investing is a very personal journey where we need to match our strengths and strategies to our goals, while ignoring all the noise but also constantly learning and improving our process.

W/O understanding the other person's situation, interests, competency etc we shouldn't quickly offer unsolicited advice that they should be doing this or that with their portfolio.

Like "Why don't you just own ARK funds instead of holding so many SaaS stocks"? Maybe that's because I like searching for and studying solid companies from different sectors in my own free time, and buy each one after personally understanding them...

...and buy them at my own timeframe slowly over the years. As long as the med-long term Portfolio results are better than the indexes and comparable ETFs, that's a worth-wile endeavor.

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Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

Excellent collection of articles related to Financial Statement Analysis and related topics, on Harvard Business School Online blog. h/t @online_HBS 👏

✔️The Beginner's Guide to Reading & Understanding Financial

How to Read & Understand

✔️Income Statement
https://t.co/sx2QP2kDvx

✔️Balance Sheet
https://t.co/xK5r04EmPT

✔️Cash Flow

✔️GAAP vs. IFRS : What are the Key Differences?
https://t.co/9vqtZVmOys

✔️20 Financial Terms to

✔️How to quickly & effectively read an Annual Report
https://t.co/6vNPoHY3yi

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Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

"4 Simple Rules To Protect Your Portfolio From Yourself" h/t @EconomyApp 👏👏

Excellent article for the current environment (with big drawdowns in many high growth including some quality Co.'s)

My fav parts from the article in the thread below.

"The real threat to your portfolio is not volatility. It's your ability to cope with it. As a result, your portfolio doesn't need to be protected from volatility. It needs to be protected from yourself." 👏

"Volatility refers to how dramatically the price of an investment may change. On the other hand, risk refers to the probability that an investment will underperform the market or result in a permanent loss of capital."

"In short, a stock that sees very large swings in its price over time may be a less risky investment than one that barely moves. The true risk over a long timeframe depends on the underlying business more than the sheer volatility of its share price."

"How much volatility can I tolerate?"

That's the key question that we all need to answer, but it might be the wrong way to tackle the question of temperament.

Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

The (investing) world is full of noise📢. Tune that out and find your signal.🗼

Investing websites/blogs that I shared during the @FintwitSummit last weekend. With some minor changes and lot of additional commentary in the thread below. ⬇️⬇️

My investing diet 🗒️

✔️Zero Financial TV.

✔️Very little Market & Stock prices commentary/content.

✔️Lot of Company produced presentations/statements.

✔️ Lot of Investing Podcasts (thread some other time).

✔️Lot of below awesome content whenever I find time.

Tech : Have to start with my favorite sector

✅ @stratechery
For deeper understanding of Platforms and Aggregators.
https://t.co/VsNwRStY9C

✅ @benedictevans
Phenomenal essays related to

✅ @adam_hartung
Extremely good if you are into following & investing in strong/durable trends.
https://t.co/IOE1pmkqbi

✅ @BaillieGifford
Mind blowing, if you're into extremely patient and visionary style of

✅ @StackInvesting
Must read if you love the combination of Software + Investing
https://t.co/WQ1yBYzT2m

✅ @hhhypergrowth
Phenomenal writing if you love technical deep dives into SaaS
https://t.co/kcLKITRLz1

✅ @Beth_Kindig
Sharp Tech focused

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✍️CÓMO LEER EL 10-K✍️

Es el informe más importante y antes de invertir en cualquier empresa debemos leerlo y saber interpretarlo.

Papel, lápiz y café.

El 10-k es un informe completo que detalla las actividades de una empresa durante el año anterior.

Su propósito es brindar a los usuarios, como accionistas o potenciales inversionistas, información sobre las operaciones y desempeño financiero de la empresa.

La estructura de los informes anuales, sin duda, variará según cada empresa, pero la mayoría de los informes anuales generalmente contendrán lo siguiente:

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▪️Parte 2: Financial Data and MD&A

▪️Parte 3: Executive compesation

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2. Risk Factors
3. Selected Financial Data
4. The Management Discussions and Analysis (MD&A)
5. Directors, executive officers and corporate governance
6. Executive Compesation

1) BUSINESS

Esta es la primera parte del reporte, y es una de la más importante.

Se habla de la actividad principal de la empresa, de cómo gana dinero, de dónde opera.

También de la visión y misión general de la empresa.

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In 2009, an unknown investor from Russia came out of nowhere to make one of the greatest late stage venture bets in the history of Silicon Valley. Why did FB choose an outsider to lead our Series D round? Here’s the inside story:

2 years earlier we famously raised from Microsoft at $15B valuation. That turned out to be a mistake because it set us up for a painful down round. By 2009 growth had slowed and the financial crisis crushed advertising. “Smart money” bids for our Series D were coming in at $3-6B.

We had a high bid at $8B from a respected valley firm, and we had a wildcard bid from Yuri Milner/DST who offered to top any other bid by 20%. We initially chose the reputable firm at a lower price, but they refused to drop a ratchet provision so we decided to give DST a chance.

Yuri understood 2 things that nobody else could see at the time: 1/ He had seen virtual currencies in Eastern Europe and China, believed FB could make money this way. 2/ We were offering secondary shares at 40% discount to preferred, DST was the only firm who valued this.

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1) My investment philosophy + Disclaimer -

I'm a full-time investor and my concentrated portfolio is comprised of (primarily founder-led) high growth companies with large addressable markets. I usually look for dominant businesses with a special sauce (moat) which allows..

2)...them to compound their revenues, cash flows and earnings for an extended period of time (multiple years).

Usually (but not always), such disruptive businesses operate in the technology sector and they are led by visionary founders with skin in the game.

When I invest,...

3)...it is always with the intention of holding indefinitely but the business world is unforgiving and capitalism is brutal; so in reality, my average holding period is a few years.

So, when do I sell?

(i) When a company's rev. growth < 15% pa
(ii) When the mgt. deteriorates

4)...(iii) When the 'moat' has been invaded
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Apart from the above scenarios, I remain invested in the companies and allow them to compound over time.

On macro, market timing, forecasts -

I started investing in the late 90s...

5)...and have yet to come across an individual who has accurately and consistently timed the economy and/or the stock market. Not one!

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Saturday thoughts on market pull. What is it? How is it different from Total Addressable Market (TAM)? And what ideas tend to have strong market pull?

A thread >>

1) First: "Market pull" != market size.

IMO (and most VCs will disagree!!), market size (TAM) doesn't *really* matter. But market pull DEFINITELY does. For that reason, I've almost never asked a startup about TAM.

Why?

2) First, what is TAM?

TAM is a sizing of how big your market is. A good way to estimate this is - if you can get to all potential buyers and based on how much $$ they are worth to you, how much money can your company make if you took the whole mkt?

3) An example: Say we run an e-commerce site that sells hippo food. TAM in the world:

-1000 zoos have on average 3 hippos = 3000 hippos.
-Each hippo eats $100 worth of food each day
-365 days * $100 * 3000 hippos = $110m per year globally

4) But, we'll come back to this.

Why I don't like TAM - it doesn't take into acct a few things:

A) how hard it is to get customers
B) how much more you can upsell once you have customers
C) how fast the mkt is moving up or down

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Phenomenal article/compilation on "The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make". h/t @manualofideas @JMihaljevic 👏

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid @saxena_puru

My fav pts in the thread below

Lot of great points on the importance of having a strategy, process, discipline, patience, self-reliance, awareness of risk, biases/emotions, learning from mistakes & more.

Some more ⬇️

The last year has delivered great results to many Portfolios but Market conditions are always changing and it's important to ensure the Process and Portfolio are built to withstand whatever the Market throws at it in the short-term and sustain & succeed for the long-term.

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Viruses and other pathogens are often studied as stand-alone entities, despite that, in nature, they mostly live in multispecies associations called biofilms—both externally and within the host.

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Microorganisms in biofilms are enclosed by an extracellular matrix that confers protection and improves survival. Previous studies have shown that viruses can secondarily colonize preexisting biofilms, and viral biofilms have also been described.

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$Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3$

Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
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Thirumalai Murugan Kovil
#Panpoli
#TamilNaduTemples 🚩

Thirumalai Murugan Temple is located in Tenkasi district of Tamil Nadu. Muruga is worshipped as Thirumalai kumarasamy. Temple is situated near Kerala border and known to be where Shri Murugan gave darshan to Rishi Agasthiar

Devi is worshipped in the temple as Thirumalai Kaali amman

Sthala Puranam says that, there was a priest named Poovanbhattar of Thirumalai Kaali amman. Murugar appeared in a dream of the bhattar and said to find a Vigraham, lying in particular place which is of Thirumalaikumaran

Bhattar conveyed the news to the Pandalam Raja and they went to find out the vigraham. Surprisingly ants showed the way to find the Vigraham. Thus Murugan vigraham was found and Prathista was done here. There is a lake with pure water on the top of the hill

which is said to be created by Agasthiyar. It is believed that kannaki of
Chilapathikaram visited here before going to Kerala. Sapthamathrukkal also worshipped Murugan here. Kanthashashti Thiruvizha is very famous here.

Om Muruga
Muruganukku Harohara
🙏🕉🙏