ЁЯЪиNew paper on "Psychology as a historical science" w/ @JoHenrich & @slingerland20 in Annual Review of Psychology. Catalyzing the field of "historical psychology" by reviewing work on: origins of psychology and institutions today, psychology of the past (data from dead minds) 1/

Our psychology is shaped by our societies, and our societies are shaped by their histories. We can do better than butterfly collecting--just measuring cross-cultural diffs. For psychology to develop a full theory of human behavior, we need historical psychology. 2/
Psychology is shaped by millions of years of genetic evolution, thousands of years of cultural evolution, & a short lifetime of experience; yet, much of the field has focused on that short lifetime of experience. The WEIRD People Problem is not only about geography but history 3/
Past societies can be as culturally distant as distant societies. Cohort effects are a sliver of the cross-temporal variation we would expect in a culturally evolving species. History serves as a kind of psychological fossil record, a source of "data from dead minds". 4/
We (1) review work in historical psychology; (2) introduce methods including causal inference & how to extract data from dead minds; (3) explore the role of theory in mapping history to psychology; and (4) provide some conclusions concerning the future of this field. 5/
E.g.s: Religious evolution & social psych. Some gods gained the ability to see into hearts & control an afterlife contingent on compliance. In many large-scale societies, these gods became omniscient, omnipotent, & omnibenevolent, coevolving with the scale of their societies. 6/
This historical theory makes predictions not only about expected relationships in the historical record but also about expected contemporary cross-cultural diversity in religious beliefs and cognition. In doing so, the theory links historical psychology to cultural psychology. 7/
WEIRD Psychology may have its origins in suppressing kin networks, changing family structures, & related via one particular religion: The Catholic Church 8/
Institutions rest on invisible cultural and psychological pillars. E.g. a constitutionтАЩs proclamations are irrelevant without a belief in the rule of law, or norms of punishment for violations of this rule. 9/
We discuss the importance of causal inference techniques in historical psychology: instrumental variables, difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity. Some e.g. use for slavery & trust in strangers; agriculture & sex diff, gender inequality, collectivism; personality 10/
Historical psychology includes the psychology of the past - data from dead minds, cognitive archeology. Historical databases are emerging. But sometimes the data is qualitative requiring tools like text analysis. 11/
We discuss some examples of the importance of theory. A society has codependent norms, values, beliefs, behaviors, and institutions. If one takes an exploratory approach and looks for correlations in history, there are many to be found. Theory helps clarify causality. 12/
Collaboration between psychologists, historians, and other humanities scholars is important (see https://t.co/3yapB0NbaI for an e.g.). We discuss challenges & strategies. 13/
Taking history seriously is a critical part of moving beyond the WEIRD people problem and making psychology a genuinely universal science of human cognition and behavior. There is more work in "historical psychology" than we could review. Please share your favorite work! 14/14
See also the thread from co-author @JoHenrich: https://t.co/aICrMZ16Tq
Forgot to link the paper!

https://t.co/WQz2n38REM

https://t.co/Nx6NRxCgoK

More from Health

1/16
Why do B12 and folate deficiencies lead to HUGE red blood cells?

And, if the issue is DNA synthesis, why are red blood cells (which don't have DNA) the key cell line affected?

For answers, we'll have to go back a few billion years.


2/
RNA came first. Then, ~3-4 billion years ago, DNA emerged.

Among their differences:
ЁЯФ╣RNA contains uracil
ЁЯФ╣DNA contains thymine

But why does DNA contains thymine (T) instead of uracil (U)?

https://t.co/XlxT6cLLXg


3/
ЁЯФСCytosine (C) can undergo spontaneous deamination to uracil (U).

In the RNA world, this meant that U could appear intensionally or unintentionally. This is clearly problematic. How can you repair RNA when you can't tell if something is an error?

https://t.co/bIZGviHBUc


4/
DNA's use of T instead of U means that spontaneous C тЖТ U deamination can be corrected without worry that an intentional U is being removed.

DNA requires greater stability than RNA so the transition to a thymine-based structure was beneficial.

https://t.co/bIZGviHBUc


5/
Let's return to megaloblastic anemia secondary to B12 or folate deficiency.

When either is severely deficient deoxythymidine monophosphate (dTMP*) production is hindered. With less dTMP, DNA synthesis is abnormal.

[*Note: thymine is the base in dTMP]

https://t.co/AnDUtKkbZh
You gotta think about this one carefully!

Imagine you go to the doctor and get tested for a rare disease (only 1 in 10,000 people get it.)

The test is 99% effective in detecting both sick and healthy people.

Your test comes back positive.

Are you really sick? Explain below ЁЯСЗ

The most complete answer from every reply so far is from Dr. Lena. Thanks for taking the time and going through


You can get the answer using Bayes' theorem, but let's try to come up with it in a different тАФmaybe more intuitiveтАФ way.

ЁЯСЗ


Here is what we know:

- Out of 10,000 people, 1 is sick
- Out of 100 sick people, 99 test positive
- Out of 100 healthy people, 99 test negative

Assuming 1 million people take the test (including you):

- 100 of them are sick
- 999,900 of them are healthy

ЁЯСЗ

Let's now test both groups, starting with the 100 people sick:

тЦля╕П 99 of them will be diagnosed (correctly) as sick (99%)

тЦля╕П 1 of them is going to be diagnosed (incorrectly) as healthy (1%)

ЁЯСЗ

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