BC HEALTH

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Santiago
@svpino 4 years, 4 months ago 966 views

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You gotta think about this one carefully!

Imagine you go to the doctor and get tested for a rare disease (only 1 in 10,000 people get it.)

The test is 99% effective in detecting both sick and healthy people.

Your test comes back positive.

Are you really sick? Explain below 👇

The most complete answer from every reply so far is from Dr. Lena. Thanks for taking the time and going through it!

https://t.co/jGt006Vlh5

Really doesn\u2019t fit well in a tweet. pic.twitter.com/xN0pAyniFS
— Dr. Lena Sugar \U0001f3f3\ufe0f\u200d\U0001f308\U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f1ef\U0001f1f5 (@_jvs) February 18, 2021

You can get the answer using Bayes' theorem, but let's try to come up with it in a different —maybe more intuitive— way.

👇

Here is what we know:

- Out of 10,000 people, 1 is sick
- Out of 100 sick people, 99 test positive
- Out of 100 healthy people, 99 test negative

Assuming 1 million people take the test (including you):

- 100 of them are sick
- 999,900 of them are healthy

👇

Let's now test both groups, starting with the 100 people sick:

▫️ 99 of them will be diagnosed (correctly) as sick (99%)

▫️ 1 of them is going to be diagnosed (incorrectly) as healthy (1%)

👇

Let's now test the group of 999,900 healthy individuals:

▫️ 989,901 of them will be diagnosed (correctly) as healthy (99%)

▫️ 9,999 of them will be diagnosed (incorrectly) as sick (1%)

👇

Since your test came back positive, it means that you belong to either one of the groups that had a positive result:

1. 99 people that are truly sick, or
2. 9,999 people that are actually healthy (but were diagnosed as sick.)

👇

Basically, out of 10,098, only 99 are truly sick.

That'll give you a 0.98% chance of being sick!

So no, most likely, you are fine!

👇

Here is something important: this is true as long as our only priors are that 1 in 10,000 people have the disease.

For example, if you were showing symptoms, then your chance of being sick after receiving a positive test will be higher.

More from Santiago

Santiago
@svpino

Machine learning education is broken.

If you are preparing for a research position, you are good. If you are looking to get out there and start solving problems, not even close.

Here are some thoughts so you can get ahead.

↓

Most classes, courses, and books cover the same road.

They start with a dataset. They finish with a working model. The focus is always on everything that happens in between.

Dataset → Model.

This is great, but not enough.

Real-life situations rarely start with a dataset, and they never end after you finish building your model.

Applying machine learning successfully is hard.

Here are a few examples that you should keep in mind.

First challenge: Properly framing up the problem.

If you don't understand the problem, you can't determine what data you need. If you don't understand the data, you can't build a good model.

I've never seen a company that had their data ready to go.

In fact, most of them don't even have data at all and need you to determine what exactly they should start collecting.

You usually have to go Problem → Potential Solution → Data.

Santiago
@svpino

The 8-step quick-start guide to learn Machine Learning.

🧵👇

1⃣ Start with Python 🐍

Yes, you can do other languages, but Python is by far the most straightforward option.

👇

2⃣ Get familiar with numpy, pandas, and matplotlib

These three libraries are probably the most common Python libraries you'll have to use every day.

(Even if you don't end up doing machine learning, these libraries are awesome and useful.)

👇

3⃣ Start using notebooks

Look into Jupyter or Google Colab.

Notebooks are essential for data scientists and machine learning practitioners. Most of the code you'll read and write will be in notebooks.

👇

4⃣ Find a problem (already solved)

In my opinion, the best way to start is by working through a problem —especially when you can learn from its solution.

Start with something simple. I usually recommend "Titanic" from Kaggle.

👇

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Santiago
@svpino

Beginners guide to start with machine learning.

What you need:

1. A programming language
2. A place to write and run code
3. A way to deal with data
4. A way to visualize results
5. A cool algorithm
6. An introductory course
7. A project to solve

Here are my recommendations.

Most people recommend Python to start.

I do too.

You can do machine learning with many different languages, but today, Python is the best option.

My advice: Get comfortable writing code before looking into machine learning.

You don't have to be a great developer to start.

But if you are, it helps.

Everything you know about building software is helpful to build machine learning systems.

Good developers have the odds in their favor.

"How much Python do I need to know before starting?"

If you ask, you aren't ready yet.

Ideal scenario: You should be comfortable building software. Most people get here within a year.

Let's move on to the 2nd item from the list: A place to write and run your code.

Get familiar with Google Colab.

• It's free.
• Requires no setup to start.
• It's available from anywhere.

Alternative: Kaggle.

Santiago
@svpino

One of the most popular activation functions used in deep learning models is ReLU.

I asked: "Is ReLU continuous and differentiable?"

Surprisingly, a lot of people were confused about this.

Let's break this down step by step: ↓

Let's start by defining ReLU:

f(x) = max(0, x)

In English: if x <= 0, the function will return 0. Otherwise, the function will return x.

If you draw this function, you'll get the attached chart.

Notice there are no discontinuities in the function.

This should be enough to answer half of the original question: the ReLU function is continuous.

Let's now think about the differentiable part.

A necessary condition for a function to be differentiable: it must be continuous.

ReLU is continuous. That's good, but not enough.

Its derivative should also exist for every individual point.

Here is where things get interesting.

We can compute the derivative of a function using the attached formula.

(I'm not going to explain where this is coming from; you can trust me on this one.)

We can use this formula to see whether ReLU is differentiable.

Santiago
@svpino

I learned enough AI/ML in 12 months to change my life forever.

You can do the same, and it all starts with a killer process to learn new things.

You can steal my approach. Every detail on the latest issue of my newsletter: https://t.co/9gaenLByFb.

Make it work for you.

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Thane Black
@thane_black

A week ago I voluntarily admitted myself to the hospital to get help bc I am losing weight as a result of increased food intolerances, secondary to my very severe #MECFS. A psychiatrist here decided that im mentally ill, 1/

purely on the basis that the medical workup was unable to explain my food intolerance. My psych eval only found mild anxiety and depression. 2/

They have put me on a 72hr psych hold while they work to get the county courts to commit me to a psych ward. This is a nightmare. They have taken away most of my belongings, put me in a new uniform, and are keeping me under 24/7 video surveillance. 3/

In the middle of the night last night when I sat up to use the urinal loud alarms sounded, as though I was trying to escape. I can’t even walk and hadn’t even left my bed. 4/

If they succeed in having me fully committed I will lose ability to communicate with the outside world except for an occasional phone call. I will lose all agency, and will very likely have treatments forced upon me. 5/

Ted Petrou
@TedPetrou

I gave masks the benefit of the doubt in the spring/summer of 2020. I have since changed my mind and see no scenario where it makes sense to wear them in public.

Even if they provided 100% protection, I believe masks to be harmful. An explanation below 👇👇👇

Let's say masks provide 100% protection to both the wearer and others (perhaps non-masked individuals) in close proximity. This is perhaps the worst scenario.

The immune system requires a consistent influx of both microbes and viruses to remain trained.

Halting the exposure to microbes and viruses is extremely harmful in the long run and leaves you exposed to enormous risk in the future.

Without training, you will become susceptible to even weaker microbes that your immune system would have normally handled with ease.

This is no different than laying in bed for a prolonged period of time. Walking up stairs, an activity that normally would not be a challenge, would all of a sudden become difficult.

Your immune system would slowly degrade similarly not able to complete previous tasks.

This is particularly harmful to children who's immune systems do not have the training of adults and would leave them more vulnerable. Children have the most life to lose so it harms them the most.

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(Cyriac) Abby Philips
@drabbyphilips

1/
Remember woman who tuk multiple @SriSriTattva products 4 range of problems frm diabetes 2 gas 2 liver disease & developed liver failure, listed for liver transplant?
Here is original thread:
https://t.co/PXxI1Slyv2
23 samples, Analysis results
#MedTwitter #livertwitter

Middle-aged woman wit jaundice (bilirubin 34), liver failure. Liver #Transplant this week.
\U0001f633Cause\U0001f447#Ayurveda #medicines total 23\U0001f616 by @SriSriTattva & @SriSri 3-6 mnth 4 sugar, pressure, #COVID19 #ImmuneBoosters, #memory, #liver tonic.
Sent 4 analysis.#livertwitter #MedTwitter pic.twitter.com/uz3FCiVJ3f
— (Cyriac) Abby Philips (@drabbyphilips) December 7, 2020

2/
Before I go into results, I must say this was overwhelming. There was SO MUCH the lab identified, impossible to put everything here. So I made a summary. At the end of this thread, I have linked a full analysis described in Excel format. Some results were VERY concerning

3/
How did we analyse?
Here R links 2 methods
They R high end, done under strict protocols
Frm Ministry of Forest, Environment, Climate / NABL approvd Lab
ICP-OES https://t.co/O1CLhqVQAu
GC MSMS https://t.co/zRJoXyWQIr
FTIR https://t.co/goAembQ08p
Here is list V analysed 👇

4/
Sample names written on top (each column).
First 5 samples: C what we identified in #Ayurveda #medicines
Antibiotics
Steroids (anabolic/synthetic)
#NARCOTICS - LSD, Morphine
Blood thinners (possible reason Y bleeding tests were off the roof in the patient)
Heavy metals!

5/
Next 5 samples (total 10 now)
Mercury is clear winner. Almost all samples
See controlled substances - Butyrolactones https://t.co/CPz0FwPEOm, methylamine https://t.co/OZnXY7U9UQ
Alcohols, industrial solvents
Rare metals - cobalt, lithium
Again lots of blood thinners
#Ayush

Chris Hopson
@ChrisCEOHopson

1/23 We haven't had a lot to celebrate during this pandemic. But achieving the milestone of offering vaccine to the over 70s, health and care workers and the most clinically vulnerable just before target date is a huge cause for celebration, given the scale of the achievement.

2/23 When Margaret Keenan got her first jab in Coventry on December 8th last year, who’d have thought that, by Valentine’s Day, we’d have vaccinated over fourteen million people across the UK in just ten short weeks? Amazing, extraordinary and truly, really, world class!

3/23 I’ve been struck by how much joy and relief has been brought to those doing the vaccinations and those receiving them. A GP told me yesterday that nothing had given him greater pleasure in his long career. And that the patient's relief was sometimes overwhelming.

4/23 It's vital to recognise the extraordinary contribution of the staff and volunteers who have made this happen. One of my close family had their jab yesterday and was in awe of the volunteer standing outside in the freezing cold for a four hour shift meeting and greeting.

5/23 What I wanted to share in this thread was the slightly untold story of some of the extraordinary challenges the NHS has had to overcome to deliver this target. Requiring superhuman effort from NHS leaders and staff, way beyond the call of duty. Five challenges set out below.

Hypertroph | Fitness C...
@CoachHypertroph

I transformed my body in 6 months.

People charge INR 25,000+ for this information. It should be free.

Just follow these simple fat loss rules:

Exercise:
• 3-4x per week
• Weights > Cardio
• Compound movements first
• Cardio after weights

Don't focus on burning calories focus on getting stronger

Video

Nutrition:
• 20-25% calorie deficit
• 1.6-1.8 g/Kg Protein
• 2x fruits & veggies daily
• Limit eating out

Food quantity determines weight loss. Food quality determines health.

Video

Sleep:
• Fix wake up time
• Sleep 8 hrs
• No caffeine after 2 pm
• Dinner 2-3 hours before bed

Have a routine, and be consistent. Routines save your time and maximise your energy.

Video

Simple is beautiful.

Don't bookmark and forget.

• Commit to the end goal
• Disappear for 6 months
• Build yourself in private

Before you go, I would love to give you 10 bonus tips to make you unstoppable-

(with step-by-step video tutorials)

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Hello Dear Tweeples!

It’s Siddhars time of the week! Last week I shared story of Guru (Machamuni or Yogi Matsyendranath), this week I bring you information on his Shishya.

#Thread on Gorakanathar Siddhar.

@LostTemple7

His origin story is interesting, though I couldn’t verify it’s authenticity, so not sharing the story here. He’s shishya of Machamuni Siddhar and also learnt from Agasthiya Siddhar.

@HelloNNewman @RajiIndustani @Kishoreciyer1

Unlike other Siddhars, he is depicted as either with a Tiger or seated & wearing Tiger skin. While I couldn’t find any explanation for this. My interpretation is as follows:

Tiger is a predator that lurks around and attacks unexpectedly.

Our 5 indriyas and 5 vikitis also similar to Tiger, they lurk around and attacks our thoughts when we’re least expecting. Gorakkar is said to have mastered these aspects, thus to denote this, he shown with Tiger.

@Itishree001 @VarierSangitha @jananisampath

Gorakanathar or Gorakshnath (as he’s known in the Nath Sampraday) is celebrated Guru in both Northern and Southern part of India. He’s one of the NavNath in Nath Sampraday and also 18 Siddhars of Tamil tradition. During his life, he’s travelled Indian subcontinent extensively +

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Laurie Voss
@seldo

The 2018 State of JavaScript survey is out. They got 20,000 responses and have some delicious, delicious data. I'mma thread in some highlights:

First up: JavaScript flavors. There's TypeScript at 47% adoption, a tad higher than npm's own survey results (which said 46%). npm's survey is coming up again soon and will ask about TypeScript in a lot more detail.

I really, *really* like SoJ's "would not use again" question, which lets people who've abandoned a tech self-identify. This is noticeable in the graph above with Flow users -- 41% of people who've used Flow say they wouldn't use it again.

Now JavaScript frameworks. It's been a full year since npm's survey, so these numbers differ from ours in the directions I expected:
React 65% (vs. 60%)
Vue 29% (vs. 24%)
Ember 5% (vs 4%, I was expecting a bigger rise)

But there's a shocker in here: Angular.

npm's survey had Angular at 40% last year and SoJ has it at either:
- 58% (if you include those who don't want to use it again)
- 24% (if you count only those who like it)
Since npm's question didn't ask if they intend to *continue* using it I think that might explain this.

Katie Mack
@AstroKatie

Light travels at about 1 foot per nanosecond.

Hold your hand up 12 inches from your face: you’re seeing your hand as it was a nanosecond ago. Everything you look at is, to one degree or another, in the past. The farther away in space, the more ancient in time.

You can’t see the Sun as it is now, but you can see it as it was about 8 minutes ago. You can’t see Alpha Centauri now, but you can see it 4.4 years ago. You can see the Andromeda Galaxy as it was 2.5 million years in the past. And so on.

With powerful telescopes, we can see galaxies whose light has been traveling to us for more than 13 billion years. We see them shining in a universe that’s still young, where gravity has just begun to pull matter together into stars and galaxies.

We can see something even more distant, and more ancient, than the first galaxies. If we peer out far enough, in between the galaxies, we can see parts of the Universe that are so far away, it has taken the light from that distance almost the entire age of the cosmos to reach us.

Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet

THE LESSER KNOWN MAHARANA OF MEWAR:RANA KUMBHA
Kumbalgarh Fort is one of most spectacular sites of India,atop a hill abt 3600ft above sea lvl in the https://t.co/LkjmzzBhE2's second largest wall is surrounding it.A fort wall second only to Great wall of China,still not so famous.

This longest wall of India stretches to almost 36Km and encompasses a few hills, many step wells and over 360 temples and palaces. Birth place of the Great Maharana Pratap, this fort is named after another Great Maharana of Mewar, who is not given his due in the History.

Builder of many architectural marvels like the Kumbhalgarh Fort, an erudite scholar, a patron of arts, music, culture & a great warrior was the Great Maharana Kumbha. Yet we don't know much about him. Let's get to know him a little.

Maharana Kumbha was the undefeated King of Mewar from 1433-1468CE.He never lost any battles &kept Mewar out of the reach of Islamic Invaders till the time he was alive. Born on Makar Sakranti to Maharana Mokal & Saubhagya Devi, Rana Kumbha was only 13 when he ascended the throne.

His father was killed by his own relatives in a political conspiracy. He was a powerful King about 8ft tall &charismatic personality,a hardcore Hindu Rajput who could shed his life for Hindu honour without thinking twice.He was an ardent skillful warrior who never lost a battle.