You gotta think about this one carefully!

Imagine you go to the doctor and get tested for a rare disease (only 1 in 10,000 people get it.)

The test is 99% effective in detecting both sick and healthy people.

Your test comes back positive.

Are you really sick? Explain below 👇

The most complete answer from every reply so far is from Dr. Lena. Thanks for taking the time and going through it!

https://t.co/jGt006Vlh5
You can get the answer using Bayes' theorem, but let's try to come up with it in a different —maybe more intuitive— way.

👇
Here is what we know:

- Out of 10,000 people, 1 is sick
- Out of 100 sick people, 99 test positive
- Out of 100 healthy people, 99 test negative

Assuming 1 million people take the test (including you):

- 100 of them are sick
- 999,900 of them are healthy

👇
Let's now test both groups, starting with the 100 people sick:

▫️ 99 of them will be diagnosed (correctly) as sick (99%)

▫️ 1 of them is going to be diagnosed (incorrectly) as healthy (1%)

👇
Let's now test the group of 999,900 healthy individuals:

▫️ 989,901 of them will be diagnosed (correctly) as healthy (99%)

▫️ 9,999 of them will be diagnosed (incorrectly) as sick (1%)

👇
Since your test came back positive, it means that you belong to either one of the groups that had a positive result:

1. 99 people that are truly sick, or
2. 9,999 people that are actually healthy (but were diagnosed as sick.)

👇
Basically, out of 10,098, only 99 are truly sick.

That'll give you a 0.98% chance of being sick!

So no, most likely, you are fine!

👇
Here is something important: this is true as long as our only priors are that 1 in 10,000 people have the disease.

For example, if you were showing symptoms, then your chance of being sick after receiving a positive test will be higher.

More from Santiago

More from Health

Thread on how atheism leads to mental retardation (backed with medical citations🧵💉)

To start with, atheism is an unnatural self-contradicting doctrine.

Medical terminology proves that human beings are naturally pre-disposed to believe in God. Oxford scientists assert that people are "born believers".

https://t.co/kE0Fi588yn
https://t.co/OqyXcGIMJn


It should be known that atheism could never produce an intelligently-functioning society and neither ever will.

Contrastingly, Islam produced several intellectuals & polymaths, was on the forefront of scientific development, boasting 100% literacy


It is also scientifically proven that atheism led to lesser scientific curiosity and scientific frauds, which is also why atheists incline to pseudo-science.

Whereas, religion in general and Islam in particular boosted education.

https://t.co/19Onc84u3g


Atheists are also likely to affected by pervasive mental and developmental disorders like high-functioning autism.

Cognitive Scientists and renowned Neurologists found that more atheism is leads to greater autism.

https://t.co/zRjEyFoX3P

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So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.


The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.

The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."

This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.