BC HEALTH
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

1. Last NYE was a quiet one for @AmyMcLellan2 & I, after a busy year writing and helping @DavidHHeadley and @LizzieCurle organise @CapitalCrime1

Someone I follow on Twitter shared this story, and we jokingly said we hoped it wouldn’t be another SARS.

 2. A few days later, after watching social media footage coming out of Wuhan, I went for a meeting to plan Capital Crime 2021, and said it was likely we’d have to cancel the festival because of the emerging pandemic. My partners in crime looked at me as though I was unhinged.
3. As the situation worsened, I reconnected with people I knew from my previous life working as a consultant to the medical industry, and it became clear we were witnessing the start of a pandemic.
4. Knowing something about the history of pandemics, I was aware that early intervention, and quick and decisive action were essential. I was asked to write a report for Matt Hancock on the risks of reinfection and long-term ill health caused by coronaviruses.
5. Knowing the public health and economic costs of a pandemic, I joined people like @DrEricDing trying to raise the alarm in February, calling for decisive government action. In the report sent to Hancock, I recommended a 4-week precautionary border closure and lockdown...
6. ...to stop transmission while a robust test, trace and isolate system was established. Basically New Zealand. SARS & MERS suggested the new coronavirus would leave a trail of long-term illness in its wake & based on endemic HCoVs, reinfection was a possibility.
7. @Sir_David_King was complimentary about what I’d written, but when another scientist said, “Why would we inflict a 4-week, 50% reduction in GDP for the flu?”, as this thread highlights, I knew our national response would be directed at tackling the wrong virus. https://t.co/PatwQu233F
8. @Tim_R_Dawson saw some of my alarming tweets and asked me to write an article for @FMConservatives based on the report. This was published on 1st March.

https://t.co/aluQ78ifmA
9. Much of my 2020 was then spent trying to combat #COVID19 misinformation and raise awareness of how the government’s flawed policies could be improved.
10. Over the course of the year I’ve got to know some genuine experts, whose advocacy has been inspiring. @BillHanage has been generous with his time and insight. @dgurdasani1 is an amazing scientist and communicator. She wrangled the John Snow Memo authors...
11. ...and has been a tireless advocate for a better public health response to the pandemic. @Dr2NisreenAlwan has been a voice for those suffering from #LongCovid All of the John Snow Memo authors are worth following.
12. @florian_krammer @AliNouriPhD @EckerleIsabella @GYamey @DebbyBogaert @theresphysics @eyejosh @bealelab @devisridhar @HZiauddeen - all working tirelessly to help us better understand #COVID19 and meet the challenge it poses. Full list of authors here:

https://t.co/8mKkiAOB8C
13. I’ve been vocal on the subject of schools because I don’t like the blind risk we’re taking with children’s health and can’t believe the government hasn’t implemented public health measures recommended by the @WHO and others to protect against transmission in schools.
14. Through this I’ve become aware of other advocates on the issue of school safety. @DrZoeHyde has been a leading voice.

And @SarahDRasmussen whose threads remind me why I love maths.
15. Parents, teachers and union representatives who are trying to make schools a safer place @HoppySaul @germanacanzi @karamballes @cyclingkev @paysupplystaff @DmodosCutter @ConcernedofBri1 @ChrisDo30828241
16. I’ve been impressed by the work @NafeezAhmed @peterjukes @BylineTimes have been doing to expose the dark underbelly of the money, shadowy networks and advisers who have tried to exploit the pandemic or minimise its impact.

https://t.co/XhyeVl7Pug
17. @chrischirp @Sir_David_King @martinmckee @GabrielScally @globalhlthtwit and the other members of @IndependentSage who have given so much time and energy to try and help improve the UK pandemic response.
18. @fitterhappierAJ has been hawkish on immunity and has been proven right again and again. He’s been generous with his time and thinking.
19. And @PRussW1 has been dogged in highlighting reinfection when people were saying it was impossible. It is an important issue we still don’t know enough about.
20. @queenchristina_ @mattprescott @StefSimanowitz who’ve been generous sharing information.
21. @DrDomPimenta for his tireless communication, medical and charity work. Still in awe of your epic #COVIDIOT battles with deniers, Keto nutritionists, Gompertz curve fans and those who believed the virus had ‘gone away’.

https://t.co/qh1n147kYC
22. @DrSimonAshworth @doctor_oxford @rupert_pearse and all the frontline NHS staff at the sharp end of this pandemic. They deserve far more than claps.
23. @mirvatermos @katemeredithp @ahandvanish @LongCovidSOS @keyeri @preshitorian and many others for being voices on the issue of #LongCovid

@itosettiMD_MBA for sharing useful info (and a sense of disbelief at how some governments are failing to respond to the pandemic).
24. And so many others who’ve shared info, insight or laughs to make 2020 a little easier.

I think we’ve all had enough of this pandemic, so I really hope our governments can get a handle on things. Half measures only make things worse & the new variant will punish inaction. https://t.co/Ou2VgaG4A5
25. And looking at the relative success of eradicators such as China, New Zealand, Vietnam, and others, we may want to revise all future pandemic plans.

https://t.co/KPvONwwBqV
26. I hope 2021 is a better year for everyone and that the day will come when we can put this all behind us.

In the meantime, stay positive, keep safe and be kind to yourself and others.
27. Almost forgot @ToryFibs and @Parents_Utd who have done a great job of sharing information on schools and exposing some of the dangerous misinformation out there.

More from Adam Hamdy

Adam Hamdy
Adam Hamdy
@adamhamdy
1. I find it remarkable that some medics and scientists aren’t raising their voices to make children as safe as possible. The comment about children being less infectious than adults is unsupported by evidence.


2. @c_drosten has talked about this extensively and @dgurdasani1 and @DrZoeHyde have repeatedly pointed out flaws in the studies which have purported to show this. Now for the other assertion: children are very rarely ill with COVID19.

3. Children seem to suffer less with acute illness, but we have no idea of the long-term impact of infection. We do know #LongCovid affects some children. @LongCovidKids now speaks for 1,500 children struggling with a wide range of long-term symptoms.

4. 1,500 children whose parents found a small campaign group. How many more are out there? We don’t know. ONS data suggests there might be many, but the issue hasn’t been studied sufficiently well or long enough for a definitive answer.

5. Some people have talked about #COVID19 being this generation’s Polio. According to US CDC, Polio resulted in inapparent infection in more than 99% of people. Severe disease occurred in a tiny fraction of those infected. Source:
SCIENCE
Adam Hamdy
Adam Hamdy
@adamhamdy
1. THE PLAN

We see countries like China & New Zealand succeed by implementing border controls and wonder why our government didn’t do the same. Unfortunately, it’s been following the 2011 influenza pandemic plan, which says...


2. China & New Zealand have international travel (limited in the case of New Zealand) and freight, and rather than delay their peaks, their border controls have helped keep cases to a minimum. Border controls might not work in a flu pandemic, but they worked for #COVID19.

3. Countries that have done well against #COVID19 have high adherence to mask wearing. The pandemic plan tells us the British people won’t bother wearing masks over time so let’s no bother asking them to, eh.


4. Mass super spreading events have been shown to play a significant role in the transmission of #COVID19.

But the pandemic plan tells us they don’t play a role (perhaps the source of Jenny Harries’ comments about Cheltenham?) and therefore the government will not restrict them


5. I call this the white flag clause. Surrender was built into the assumptions behind our pandemic response. The success of other countries has proved this clause completely wrong.
TRAVEL
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Adam Hamdy
Adam Hamdy
@adamhamdy
1. I believe the government is about to make another huge mistake. Where is @UKLabour in all this? I have some questions @Keir_Starmer should be asking urgently. Please RT to raise awareness.


2. Where is the modelling or evidence to support a focused protection vaccination strategy? The government has chosen it as its preferred strategy but it must have considered other options. Will the government publish the data and the alternative options considered?

3. A responsible government will have modelling for 20%, 50% and 80% vaccine coverage, and projections for the number of infections, Long Covid and deaths in each scenario. Where are those models? On what basis has the government opted for the 20% scenario?

4. The government should also have modelled each of these scenarios against a backdrop of low, medium and high community transmission. What is the impact of each vaccination scenario against varying levels of community transmission?

5. There should also be some assessment of incidence of reinfection and likely evolution of variants given different levels of community transmission. What does this assessment tell us?
GOVERNMENT
Adam Hamdy
Adam Hamdy
@adamhamdy
1. This thread has been given a new lease of life today. People keep saying, "We can't do #ZeroCovid, it doesn't fit with our way of life."

Look around.

What way of life?

The one we used to have?

The UK has been under varying degrees of restriction since March 23rd 2020.


2. Nearly a year of having our social and economic freedoms curtailed in one way or another. Nearly a year of muted economic activity. Nearly a year of mass death and disease.

#ZeroCovid doesn't fit with a way of life that doesn't exist anymore.

3. The question isn't whether it fits with our old freewheeling ways, but whether it would lead to better outcomes than the UK's current (poorly defined) strategy? Experiences in New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, China, Taiwan and elsewhere very much suggest it would.

4. #ZeroCovid isn't about what's possible. It's about what's necessary. Decide what's necessary and figure out a way to make it possible. We can't force travellers to quarantine in hotels for two weeks? Why not? Taiwan does. And if that's what's necessary, why aren't we doing it?

5. I've heard some odd things said about #ZeroCovid

Simple-minded clod Matt Hancock said Zero Covid is impossible because no country has had zero cases.

Zero Covid sets out an ambition. It signals a country treats any infections as serious
SOCIETY
Adam Hamdy
Adam Hamdy
@adamhamdy
1. The problem facing Europe & the US isn't a scientific one. Scientists have been clear for months: public health and economic & social wellbeing are best served by policies that supress the virus. The #JohnSnowMemo cites evidence that makes this

2. Some media commentators seek to present the issue of how to respond to the virus in simplistic terms: Lockdown vs Herd Immunity. This a mischaracterisation. The countries that have tackled #COVID-19 best have used a range of public health


3. Almost every scientist acknowledges lockdown equals failure. It is a sign governments have failed to implement the measures needed to allow life to be lived more or less as normal, without risking exponential growth in transmission.

4. There is an active misinformation campaign that is being aided and abetted by certain sections of the media and some politicians. The campaign would have us believe that if we open up and shield the vulnerable, all will be well. This approach has been derided as inhumane...

5. ...by the WHO, and ridiculous by Dr Fauci for many reasons. It is based on faulty logic, and the proponents of this approach have submitted no evidence that it can be achieved nor any practical examples of how they would do so.
SOCIETY

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Ary Serpa Neto
Ary Serpa Neto
@a_serpaneto
The #RELAx trial has been published today in @JAMA. It was coordinated by Anna Algera. This thread is to explain the rationale, what we did, the findings and the meaning.
The rationale of #RELAx is based on the following

First, there is NO adequate evidence on the level of PEEP in non-ARDS patients. Most of the studies are old, conducted in post-surgical patients (short-term ventilation), and were not powered to detect differences in patient-centered

Second, despite the absence of evidence, the levels of PEEP used in non-ARDS patients increased over years, from 5 to 7/8 cmH2O, probably as a reflection of studies and practice in ARDS

Third, one IPDM showed that higher levels of PEEP could benefit more severe ARDS patients. However, opposite trends (higher mortality and longer ventilation) were found in mild ARDS with higher PEEP (despite not powered to be statistically

Fourth, most of the weaning protocols include PEEP ≤ 5 cmH2O as a criterion for readiness to wean. Theoretically, a standardized liberal strategy of higher PEEP could delay weaning in some
HEALTH
Ted Petrou
Ted Petrou
@TedPetrou
I gave masks the benefit of the doubt in the spring/summer of 2020. I have since changed my mind and see no scenario where it makes sense to wear them in public.

Even if they provided 100% protection, I believe masks to be harmful. An explanation below 👇👇👇

Let's say masks provide 100% protection to both the wearer and others (perhaps non-masked individuals) in close proximity. This is perhaps the worst scenario.

The immune system requires a consistent influx of both microbes and viruses to remain trained.

Halting the exposure to microbes and viruses is extremely harmful in the long run and leaves you exposed to enormous risk in the future.

Without training, you will become susceptible to even weaker microbes that your immune system would have normally handled with ease.

This is no different than laying in bed for a prolonged period of time. Walking up stairs, an activity that normally would not be a challenge, would all of a sudden become difficult.

Your immune system would slowly degrade similarly not able to complete previous tasks.

This is particularly harmful to children who's immune systems do not have the training of adults and would leave them more vulnerable. Children have the most life to lose so it harms them the most.
HEALTH
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katya
katya
@kazbek
it seems to me that not many know that navalny is an avowed nationalist & racist and not just a blonde guy who likes to gently kiss his blonde wife before going to jail and watches “rick & morty”. so here’s a little thread and some of it is pretty personal.

here is navalny’s 2007 video. “a tooth without a root is called “dead”. a nationalist is someone who doesn’t want the russian root to be removed from the word “russia”. we have the right to be russian in russia, and we will defend it.”


i downloaded it to make sure it won’t disappear but it is still shared by navalny’s official youtube channel. btw, in this video, navalny is introduced in the caption as a “certified nationalist”.

here is another video navalny is not keen to share anymore, in which he compares muslims to cockroaches and flies and recommends shooting them with guns if swatters and shoes

here is a 2011 interview with navalny where he explains why he goes to the so-called “russian march”, a yearly nationalist gathering, and why he thinks it’s ok to collaborate with
HEALTH
\u2744\ufe0fI'm A Fuckin' Princess\u2744\ufe0f
❄️I'm A Fuckin' Prince...
@Just_ReneaR
I'm not pro-murdering babies.
I'm pro-Becky who found out at her 20 week anatomy scan that the infant she had been so excited to bring into this world had developed without life sustaining organs.
HEALTH
Albert Vilella
Albert Vilella
@AlbertVilella
@sbarnettARK Epigenomic biomarkers are becoming more established for #LiquidBiopsy and #CancerScreening, and we have seen the big players positioning themselves in this #epigenomics race recently.

Catching signs of #cancer early is crucially important to the disease management and survival rates, so the question is: how can we find out if there is something wrong going on early enough?

The first generation of high-throughput technologies was predicated on finding mutated (tumor) DNA in the individual's body (somatic), different from their (normal) DNA. Tumor/Normal (T/N) comparisons of the individual's samples, biopsies or ctDNA will indicate if there

are signs of cancer already underway. So why do we need #epigenomic profiling if we can do all this with the detection of mutations? Well, the argument is that if you can see sufficient mutated copies of DNA, cancer may already have progressed beyond the initial stages.

Then people asked the question: is there an earlier mark that we can detect for earlier stages of cancer before the Tumor/Normal mutations signal amps up? Here is where #epigenomics profiling took hold.
HEALTH

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The YouTube algorithm that I helped build in 2011 still recommends the flat earth theory by the *hundreds of millions*. This investigation by @RawStory shows some of the real-life consequences of this badly designed AI.


This spring at SxSW, @SusanWojcicki promised "Wikipedia snippets" on debated videos. But they didn't put them on flat earth videos, and instead @YouTube is promoting merchandising such as "NASA lies - Never Trust a Snake". 2/


A few example of flat earth videos that were promoted by YouTube #today:
https://t.co/TumQiX2tlj 3/

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Vibhu Vashisth
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Did you know?

When Saudi Arabia's King visited India in 1955, PM Nehru ordered all the Hindu Temples and Idols of Hindu Deities that came in Saudi King's way to be covered up.
Our temples are the architectural marvels in their own league.


Each of our temples tells the story of our rich history and cultural heritage. Was Nehru that ashamed of his own nation's heritage that he had to cover them up or there was some other reason? The answer would be best known to him only.

PM Nehru invited the then Saudi King Saud bin Abdul Aziz to India who accepted the invitation and planned a 17 day long official visit to India in 1955. Saudi King had brought a large delegation with him and he had to visit various Indian cities like Mumbai, Hyderabad, Agra,


Aligarh, Shimla, Mysore and Varanasi. However, when Saudi King reached Varanasi, Nehru ordered to cover all the temples and Idols with curtains that came in the way of the Royal Convoy. During his stay in Varanasi, Govt buildings were painted with the words "Kalma Tayyiba".


'Kalma Tayyiba' means 'There is not God but only Allah and Mohammed is his messenger'. In addition to it, Pooja and Aartis were also stopped at temples. I can call it the appeasement politics of the highest order and Nehru was indeed the greatest appeaser of all times.
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Simon DeDeo
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So, today, for the first time in 25 (!) years of Apple, I downgraded. From the 2016 MacBook Pro to my 2013, which I had kept in a drawer...


It was pretty simple to do—Apple Time Machine backups let me do it with one click.

That first tweet captures, in two pictures, how badly Apple has “lost the plot” (to quote @wylieprof). On the right is the Apple MagSafe adapter, from 2013. On the left, what I had “upgraded” to.

Thanks, Apple! I really was nostalgic for worrying about yanking my computer off the table.

Oh and I really appreciated not knowing if my computer was charging. What was great was the little whoop sound you used, so that the speaker before me could be informed I was charging my laptop.
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Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
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MASTER THREAD on Short Strangles.

Curated the best tweets from the best traders who are exceptional at managing strangles.

• Positional Strangles
• Intraday Strangles
• Position Sizing
• How to do Adjustments
• Plenty of Examples
• When to avoid
• Exit Criteria

How to sell Strangles in weekly expiry as explained by boss himself. @Mitesh_Engr

• When to sell
• How to do Adjustments
• Exit


Beautiful explanation on positional option selling by @Mitesh_Engr
Sir on how to sell low premium strangles yourself without paying anyone. This is a free mini course in


1st Live example of managing a strangle by Mitesh Sir. @Mitesh_Engr

• Sold Strangles 20% cap used
• Added 20% cap more when in profit
• Booked profitable leg and rolled up
• Kept rolling up profitable leg
• Booked loss in calls
• Sold only


2nd example by @Mitesh_Engr Sir on converting a directional trade into strangles. Option Sellers can use this for consistent profit.

• Identified a reversal and sold puts

• Puts decayed a lot

• When achieved 2% profit through puts then sold
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Shannon Sims
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I’m remembering how much I love about Brazil 🇧🇷 today. I’ve traveled almost all over the country over the past decade here, and I thought maybe I should share my very favorite places.😻 Thread, share with your friends who want to visit #Brazil!👇

(1) I’m a beach bunny, & Brazil provides endless beaches for me to explore. Several of my favorites are in a rarely-visited area along the south coast of Paraíba state in the Northeast. Pink cliffs juxtapose turquoise waters like a painting, & the forests are awesome for hikes.


(2) Brazil has a ton of really special colonial towns. Paraty is wonderful, but I often get annoyed by crowds & rain. The town I prefer is #OuroPreto in Minas Gerais. The air there is so brisk & fresh, the people are so kind, and all I want to do when I’m there is stroll forever.


(3) To get away from it all, I go to the far north of the country, to the remote beaches between Jericoacoara & Lençóis Maranhenses. Along this coast, the environment is rugged & rough, & you can walk forever without seeing anyone. It’s my favorite place for sex on the beach. 😇


(4) My favorite Brazilian city is #RiodeJaneiro. It’s the most touristy place in Brazil & I think it should be. I feel genuinely sorry for someone who doesn’t get the chance to hear samba, or see the incredible mountains, or people-watch on the beach. It never gets old.
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