🚨New lockdown regulations just published, in force tomorrow

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (No. 3) and (All Tiers) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2021

https://t.co/L5jwlTDaIE

(Thread)

These are not a new set of regulations: they are amendments an old set of regulations

Which we thought were gone! But they are back

Welcome back No.3 regulations
A quick thing before we continue!

I have been analysing these laws for free for 9 months now - if you want to say thanks and have a few £ to spare please give to my @LawCentres fundraiser

They give free legal advice to people who need it most

https://t.co/NqjdiiAjqW
They also amend the All Tiers regulations

Oh god it's all amendments by paragraph references

Basically all of England now in Tier 4 and Tier 4 is amended but not by a huge amount

This really is a terrible way to make laws on the fly - who can possibly understand it?!
So, to explain, you need 2 documents open if you want to understand what is going on:

All Tiers regulations (Tiers 1-4, 2 December as amended) https://t.co/IraPQ112ak

And amendments https://t.co/L5jwlTDaIE

No sensible way of doing except by track changes, on it now, back soon
First thing to go is "open air recreation" which is what we suspected based on the guidance.

So this means that you can go out for exercise (or any other listed reasonable excuse) but not to recreate (is that the verb?).
Before I go on - this is going to sound a bit abstract unless I explain that the new "lockdown" is an amendment to the Tier 4 restrictions. Tier 4 was a lockdown but slightly less strict than March.

This is my thread on Tier 4 - perhaps read that first https://t.co/zkKiVO62cd
Some minor changes here to Exception 1 to being outside the home ("leaving home necessary for certain purposes").

Key point is the original reasons - work, voluntary services etc. etc. are still there

"public outdoor place" can't include sports grounds or facilities
Important to see that you still don't count a child under 5 or person with disability who needs continuous care when you are with someone from another household for exercise

Not in the guidance I think but maybe they don't want to publicise
Next change is to para 13 so the exceptions almost all stay in - see last thread https://t.co/DnXxk1DQfK
Paras 13 and 14 are about childcare. Some small but important changes:

I think it means that you can only provide informal childcare for "critical workers" in very limited circumstances

Tell me if I'm wrong
Children's outdoor sports gatherings removed as a reasonable excuse - we knew that from the guidance
Parents and child groups no longer permitted
What is important really is how similar this is to Tier 4:
- No open air recreation
- No parents and child groups
- More limited informal childcare options (I think)
- No children's sport or other outdoor sport such as tennis)
But otherwise its very similar
Elite sport and sport for people with disabilities is still permitted
Also well trailed in the announcements is the closure of outdoor sports facilities such as swimming, gyms, sports grounds
No alcohol takeaway
Have to pop off to eat, back later! That's basically it though, not much else changed from Tier 4
Oh, before I go, so as not to build tension, here's what's not in the law which is in the guidance :
- Time limit on outdoor exercise;
- Geographical limit on outdoor exercise
- Travel between areas.
I was indeed partly wrong on informal childcare, apologies https://t.co/s44qSsp88I
Charles has it here https://t.co/eY1P4nk7cD
I am going to wait until there is a consolidated version of the regulations to make a new video, hopefully tomorrow afternoon. I understand that the amended version of the regulations should be up tomorrow
All this remains in place https://t.co/5oaU0W3RjD
And this is still there https://t.co/ClJGeOkZwE
As is this - guidance has changed but not law re students https://t.co/vgsxo9nVvX
Communal worship still permitted https://t.co/94CtyjP41i
Linked households (bubbles) remain the same - exactly the same, people. Really important to get that https://t.co/VpcNmSAayM
One other error sorry - it is the carer of a person with a disability who needs continuous care who doesn’t ‘count’ for gatherings not the disabled person themselves https://t.co/Mpt5DLb0YX
The amendments have a sad little ending
Here is my unofficial and probably unreliable track changes version of the Tier 4 rules. Please don't rely on it, for illustrative purposes only! https://t.co/GmVC9GwjhN

More from Adam Wagner

🚨Important changes to lockdown/self-isolation regulations from 5pm

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (All Tiers and Self-Isolation) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2021

£800 'house party' FPN & police can now access track & trace data

https://t.co/k9XCpVsXhC


“Large gathering offence”

As trailed by Home Secretary last week there is now a fixed penalty notice of £800 (or £400 if you pay within 14 days) for participating in an gathering of over 15 people in a private residence


Fixed Penalty Notices double for each subsequent “large gathering offence” up to £6,400

Compare:
- Ordinary fixed penalty notice is £200 or £100 if paid in 14 days
- Holding or being involved in the holding of a gathering of over 30 people is £10,000


Second big change:

Since September has been a legal requirement to sell-isolate if you test positive/notified by Track & Trace of exposure to someone else who tested positive

Police can now be given access to NHS Track & Trace data if for the purpose of enforcement/prosecution


This will make it easier for police to enforce people breaking self-isolation rules. Currently there has been practically no enforcement.

Data says only a small proportion of people meant to be self-isolating are fully doing so.
A short thread on why I am dubious that the government can lawfully impose charges on travellers entering the UK for quarantine and testing (proposed at £1,750 and £210)

1/

The UK has signed up to the International Health Regulations (IHA) 2005. These therefore create binding international legal obligations on the UK.

The IHA explicitly prevent charging for travellers' quarantine or medical examinations.

https://t.co/n4oWE8x5Vg /2


International law is not actionable in a UK court unless it has been implemented in law.

But it can be used as an aide to interpretation where a statute isn't clear as to what powers it grants.

See e.g. Lord Bingham in A v SSHD https://t.co/RXmib1qGYD

/3


The Quarantine regulations will, I assume, be made under section 45B of the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984

https://t.co/54L4lHGMEr

/4


That gives pretty broad powers but I can't see any power to charge for quarantine. Perhaps it will be inferred from somewhere else in Part 2A?

But...

More from Health

You gotta think about this one carefully!

Imagine you go to the doctor and get tested for a rare disease (only 1 in 10,000 people get it.)

The test is 99% effective in detecting both sick and healthy people.

Your test comes back positive.

Are you really sick? Explain below 👇

The most complete answer from every reply so far is from Dr. Lena. Thanks for taking the time and going through


You can get the answer using Bayes' theorem, but let's try to come up with it in a different —maybe more intuitive— way.

👇


Here is what we know:

- Out of 10,000 people, 1 is sick
- Out of 100 sick people, 99 test positive
- Out of 100 healthy people, 99 test negative

Assuming 1 million people take the test (including you):

- 100 of them are sick
- 999,900 of them are healthy

👇

Let's now test both groups, starting with the 100 people sick:

▫️ 99 of them will be diagnosed (correctly) as sick (99%)

▫️ 1 of them is going to be diagnosed (incorrectly) as healthy (1%)

👇

You May Also Like

Master Thread of all my threads!

Hello!! 👋

• I have curated some of the best tweets from the best traders we know of.

• Making one master thread and will keep posting all my threads under this.

• Go through this for super learning/value totally free of cost! 😃

1. 7 FREE OPTION TRADING COURSES FOR


2. THE ABSOLUTE BEST 15 SCANNERS EXPERTS ARE USING

Got these scanners from the following accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sanjufunda
3. @sanstocktrader
4. @SouravSenguptaI
5. @Rishikesh_ADX


3. 12 TRADING SETUPS which experts are using.

These setups I found from the following 4 accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sourabhsiso19
3. @ITRADE191
4.


4. Curated tweets on HOW TO SELL STRADDLES.

Everything covered in this thread.
1. Management
2. How to initiate
3. When to exit straddles
4. Examples
5. Videos on