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Keeping the inauguration outdoors in DC despite the ongoing threat is having a huge effect on the hundreds of thousands of people who, yes, actually LIVE in this largely Black city, and I feel like thatās not getting enough attention.
A thread. 1/x
2/ Violent white supremacists are coming (back) to town. Last week, 3 Black women were attacked by Trumpers.
āThis time thereāll be way more cops though!ā
Well, last week there were cops too. **All 3 women were arrested while the attackers were
3/ Black people have known forever that law enforcement forces attract white supremacists.
And DC streets are now absolutely crawling with them. There are over 20,000 troops here.
Itās traumatic.
4/ The insurrectionists will not only be armed with guns, they will be maskless and doing shit like this:
[Source: @carstensenpol https://t.co/c3PQ2nTGpF]
5/ DC organizers like @DMVBlackLives @ShutDown_DC and mutual aid groups like @ServeYourCityDC are working around the clock to:
-drive unhoused people to safer areas
-distribute PPE
-demand that @airbnb + hotels #DontHostHate
-prep and supply medics
-and so, so much more
A thread. 1/x
2/ Violent white supremacists are coming (back) to town. Last week, 3 Black women were attacked by Trumpers.
āThis time thereāll be way more cops though!ā
Well, last week there were cops too. **All 3 women were arrested while the attackers were
3/ Black people have known forever that law enforcement forces attract white supremacists.
And DC streets are now absolutely crawling with them. There are over 20,000 troops here.
Itās traumatic.
4/ The insurrectionists will not only be armed with guns, they will be maskless and doing shit like this:
[Source: @carstensenpol https://t.co/c3PQ2nTGpF]
5/ DC organizers like @DMVBlackLives @ShutDown_DC and mutual aid groups like @ServeYourCityDC are working around the clock to:
-drive unhoused people to safer areas
-distribute PPE
-demand that @airbnb + hotels #DontHostHate
-prep and supply medics
-and so, so much more
Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
why is everything so weird
This is almost fitting because I used to make fake "In Memoriam" videos for whenever a Trump official left the administration back in 2017 set to this song until they all got pulled because of copyright complaints. haha
Beat it
Now playing: Tiny Dancer
This is actually just the Trump campaign playlist he's used at rallies since his 2016 campaign, if you can believe it
This is almost fitting because I used to make fake "In Memoriam" videos for whenever a Trump official left the administration back in 2017 set to this song until they all got pulled because of copyright complaints. haha
Beat it
Now playing: Tiny Dancer
This is actually just the Trump campaign playlist he's used at rallies since his 2016 campaign, if you can believe it
Then they played the theme from "Titanic." Now it's "Funeral for a Friend" by Elton John. Whoever is in charge of the music is being either quite dumb or very subversive. https://t.co/bmF3osSyph
— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) January 6, 2021
#PeakBlogging2011 ) years ago and this Groundhog post from @DavidGolemXIV @scientificecon @jbhearn @DavidGolemXIV @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno @Pathos14658352 @Lloyd__Evans There is no #CovidCrisis #ClimateCrisis
#GFCPt2
https://t.co/QGutbtW0Ev https://t.co/AwvmN9AWqu
https://t.co/XBaqI4O7X8 @RNW_MITCHELL
RBS: The Hillsborough of British Business
https://t.co/9F89jQDZV6 #SpankTheBanker
https://t.co/bOAwzaKCEM
#GFCPt2
https://t.co/QGutbtW0Ev https://t.co/AwvmN9AWqu
https://t.co/XBaqI4O7X8 @RNW_MITCHELL
Are you all ready for the Final Chapter - The Ending ? https://t.co/uF5HXRMPQp
— NEIL MITCHELL (@RNW_MITCHELL) December 22, 2020
RBS: The Hillsborough of British Business
https://t.co/9F89jQDZV6 #SpankTheBanker
https://t.co/bOAwzaKCEM
[THREAD]
This is good news
The securing of British jobs
Is good news
Though to secure them
It admits two things
1. They were under threat
2. Something was done to address that
This is good news
The securing of British jobs
Is good news
Though to secure them
It admits two things
1. They were under threat
2. Something was done to address that
This is a great vote of confidence in the UK and fantastic news for the brilliant @Nissan workforce in Sunderland and electric vehicle manufacturing in this country.https://t.co/W6nN1ki3Lq
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) January 22, 2021
I enjoy looking for patterns and making connections.
Right, wrong or indifferent, I sure do learn a lot when I dig.
This short thread is a compilation of my findings from a "Big Red" rabbit hole....
US Army 1st Infantry Division - "The Big Red One"
United States Army 1st Infantry Division Ratings Patch "The Big Red One".
š Constituted into the US Army on 24 May 1917
š Celebrated 100th anniversary in 2017
š Oldest continuously serving division in the US Army
š The Big Red One had many roles that helped shape the country's history
https://t.co/MJlbAW0VeD
Right, wrong or indifferent, I sure do learn a lot when I dig.
This short thread is a compilation of my findings from a "Big Red" rabbit hole....
US Army 1st Infantry Division - "The Big Red One"
United States Army 1st Infantry Division Ratings Patch "The Big Red One".
š Constituted into the US Army on 24 May 1917
š Celebrated 100th anniversary in 2017
š Oldest continuously serving division in the US Army
š The Big Red One had many roles that helped shape the country's history
https://t.co/MJlbAW0VeD