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The Road to 2021 Thread.

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@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352

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@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352

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@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352

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RealRLD
@rld_real_CPR

@jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno
#CovidStroika #CovidPurpose #GreatReset #GFC11
https://t.co/gUb9OX7AdL https://t.co/qqXCutbKK1

https://t.co/3D4TpmeXZr #CovidStroika @jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno

Night has fallen only for those who have let themselves fall into the night. For
those who are living, [says Heraclitus], "helios neos eph’hemerei estin"– the sun is
new each day.

"in effect, all business sagacity reduces itself in the last analysis to judicious use of sabotage."
Veblen (1917) An Inquiry .. Nature of Peace, &.. Perpetuation, p. 168
#CovidStroika @jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno

https://t.co/OtstKx9heK #CovidStroika
@jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno JOURNAL OF INTEGRAL THEORY AND PRACTICE. NOTES FOR CONTEXTUAL SEARCH ENGINE OFFERING INTEGRAL FRAMEWORK PERSPECTIVES. GRUB STREET JOURNAL NOTE 1.

More from Government

David Begnaud
@DavidBegnaud

Riley J. Williams is charged in the Capitol riot.
She allegedly stole a computer from @SpeakerPelosi’s office, & now @FBI is investigating a tip that she intended to send the computer to a friend in Russia who’d sell it to Russian intelligence.
Williams appears to have “fled”.

From the affidavit against her: Riley Williams’ former romantic partner called the FBI several times in the days following the riots to report that they had seen her in videos inside the Capitol, but friends of Williams had shown the tipster a video of Williams taking a laptop...

... computer or hard drive from Speaker Pelosi’s office. The witness told the FBI that “WILLIAMS intended to send the computer device to a friend in Russia, who then planned to sell the device to SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence service...”

“... but that the transfer of the computer device to Russia fell through for unknown reasons and Williams still has the computer device or destroyed it. “This matter remains under investigation.”

Williams has appeared to have fled, she packed a bag & did not tell her mother where she was going but said she would be gone for a couple of weeks. She has changed her telephone number & deleted what are believed to have been her social media accounts on Facebook, Instagram...

Black Lake Babe Loves ...
@LakeFreedom

1/7 #JohnRoberts is in big trouble. So is anyone who went to Epstein Island & they're all connected. The FBI found children's bones under the temple, they have it all.

#EpsteinIsAlive #HoldTheLine #Redpill #ConcedeJoe

https://t.co/PRZX7eM2qw

Stephen Wolfe
@PerfInjust

Thread:
I'm thinking about Tim Keller's influence.

There is the curious fact that Keller is well-regarded among the culture elite (or at least has not suffered the sort of vilification one might expect given his influence). How can we explain this?

Looking at Prodigal God and other writings, you see that his approach to urban ministry is deeply political in a way that appeals to Democrat-heavy cities. It involves two moves:

1) equalizing sins: elevating the sin of hypocrisy, "moralism," and "religion" (the sins of "conservatives") and equating these with the sins tolerated among liberal (e.g., homosexuality)
&
2) emphasizing "self-righteousness" as a sort of chief sin (the sin of "red states").

Keller effectively downplays the sins that liberals tolerate while elevating the sins of their political enemies, the red state conservatives.

But the greatest appeal to liberals is that critiquing the "self-righteous" vilifies political action, particularly the action of social conservatives (e.g., anti-gay marriage). And the equalization of sins eases concerns over changes in social policy (e.g., gay marriage).

Youyang Gu
@youyanggu

Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?

The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.

This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta

To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!