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Financial Crisis (1667) avoided by Charles II, via London Goldsmiths' Loans https://t.co/UxtABIpH2n via @old_currency_ex

Coining and Debasement in Henry's Reign
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When Henry VIII and Francis I Spent $19 Million on an 18-Day Party

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The Road to 2021 Thread.

https://t.co/dSznB4Wg46
@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352

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@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352

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#CovidStroika #CovidPurpose #GreatReset #GFC11
https://t.co/gUb9OX7AdL https://t.co/qqXCutbKK1


https://t.co/3D4TpmeXZr #CovidStroika @jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno

Night has fallen only for those who have let themselves fall into the night. For
those who are living, [says Heraclitus], "helios neos eph’hemerei estin"– the sun is
new each day.


"in effect, all business sagacity reduces itself in the last analysis to judicious use of sabotage."
Veblen (1917) An Inquiry .. Nature of Peace, &.. Perpetuation, p. 168
#CovidStroika @jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno


https://t.co/OtstKx9heK #CovidStroika
@jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno JOURNAL OF INTEGRAL THEORY AND PRACTICE. NOTES FOR CONTEXTUAL SEARCH ENGINE OFFERING INTEGRAL FRAMEWORK PERSPECTIVES. GRUB STREET JOURNAL NOTE 1.

More from Government

Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?


The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from
https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.


This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta


To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
If you're curious what Trump's defense will look like, all you have to do is turn on Fox News. My latest at @mmfa

The tl;dr is that for years right-wing media have been excusing Trump's violent rhetoric by going, "Yes, but THE DEMOCRATS..." and then bending themselves into knots to pretend that Dems were calling for violence when they very, very clearly weren't.

And in fact, this predates Trump.

In 2008, Obama was talking about not backing down in the face of an ugly campaign. He said "If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun."

https://t.co/i5YaQJsKop


That quote was from the movie The Untouchables. And there's no way anybody reading that quote in good faith could conclude that he was talking about actual guns and knives. But it became a big talking point on the

In 2018, Obama-era Attorney General Eric Holder was speaking to a group of Georgia Democrats about GOP voter suppression. He riffed on Michelle Obama's "When they go low, we go high" line from the 2016 DNC.

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Still wondering about this 🤔


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