More from RealRLD
Financial Crisis (1667) avoided by Charles II, via London Goldsmiths' Loans https://t.co/UxtABIpH2n via @old_currency_ex
Coining and Debasement in Henry's Reign https://t.co/bGitKkj7wl via @wordpressdotcom
When Henry VIII and Francis I Spent $19 Million on an 18-Day Party
England's Unwanted Reformation https://t.co/n1a0u1DzNB via @YouTube
Unusual Historicals: Money Matters: The Country Without a Currency https://t.co/gGGHOFG9rk
Coining and Debasement in Henry's Reign https://t.co/bGitKkj7wl via @wordpressdotcom
When Henry VIII and Francis I Spent $19 Million on an 18-Day Party
England's Unwanted Reformation https://t.co/n1a0u1DzNB via @YouTube
Unusual Historicals: Money Matters: The Country Without a Currency https://t.co/gGGHOFG9rk

https://t.co/4URpPnni05 @scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352
The Road to 2021 Thread.
https://t.co/dSznB4Wg46
@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352
https://t.co/GvExaHUoqS
@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352
https://t.co/RS3RcYEgsH
@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352
https://t.co/Z8vYbaC5Cu
@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352
The Road to 2021 Thread.
https://t.co/dSznB4Wg46
@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352
https://t.co/GvExaHUoqS
@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352
https://t.co/RS3RcYEgsH
@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352
https://t.co/Z8vYbaC5Cu
@scientificecon @jbhearn @wesfree @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @Pathos14658352
@jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno
#CovidStroika #CovidPurpose #GreatReset #GFC11
https://t.co/gUb9OX7AdL https://t.co/qqXCutbKK1
https://t.co/3D4TpmeXZr #CovidStroika @jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno
Night has fallen only for those who have let themselves fall into the night. For
those who are living, [says Heraclitus], "helios neos eph’hemerei estin"– the sun is
new each day.
"in effect, all business sagacity reduces itself in the last analysis to judicious use of sabotage."
Veblen (1917) An Inquiry .. Nature of Peace, &.. Perpetuation, p. 168
#CovidStroika @jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno
https://t.co/OtstKx9heK #CovidStroika
@jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno JOURNAL OF INTEGRAL THEORY AND PRACTICE. NOTES FOR CONTEXTUAL SEARCH ENGINE OFFERING INTEGRAL FRAMEWORK PERSPECTIVES. GRUB STREET JOURNAL NOTE 1.
#CovidStroika #CovidPurpose #GreatReset #GFC11
https://t.co/gUb9OX7AdL https://t.co/qqXCutbKK1

https://t.co/3D4TpmeXZr #CovidStroika @jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno
Night has fallen only for those who have let themselves fall into the night. For
those who are living, [says Heraclitus], "helios neos eph’hemerei estin"– the sun is
new each day.

"in effect, all business sagacity reduces itself in the last analysis to judicious use of sabotage."
Veblen (1917) An Inquiry .. Nature of Peace, &.. Perpetuation, p. 168
#CovidStroika @jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno

https://t.co/OtstKx9heK #CovidStroika
@jbhearn @scientificecon @JoeBlob20 @financialeyes @Lloyd__Evans @wiki_ballot @GrubStreetJorno JOURNAL OF INTEGRAL THEORY AND PRACTICE. NOTES FOR CONTEXTUAL SEARCH ENGINE OFFERING INTEGRAL FRAMEWORK PERSPECTIVES. GRUB STREET JOURNAL NOTE 1.

More from Government
Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?

The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.

This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta

To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!

If you're curious what Trump's defense will look like, all you have to do is turn on Fox News. My latest at @mmfa
The tl;dr is that for years right-wing media have been excusing Trump's violent rhetoric by going, "Yes, but THE DEMOCRATS..." and then bending themselves into knots to pretend that Dems were calling for violence when they very, very clearly weren't.
And in fact, this predates Trump.
In 2008, Obama was talking about not backing down in the face of an ugly campaign. He said "If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun."
https://t.co/i5YaQJsKop
That quote was from the movie The Untouchables. And there's no way anybody reading that quote in good faith could conclude that he was talking about actual guns and knives. But it became a big talking point on the
In 2018, Obama-era Attorney General Eric Holder was speaking to a group of Georgia Democrats about GOP voter suppression. He riffed on Michelle Obama's "When they go low, we go high" line from the 2016 DNC.
The tl;dr is that for years right-wing media have been excusing Trump's violent rhetoric by going, "Yes, but THE DEMOCRATS..." and then bending themselves into knots to pretend that Dems were calling for violence when they very, very clearly weren't.
And in fact, this predates Trump.
In 2008, Obama was talking about not backing down in the face of an ugly campaign. He said "If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun."
https://t.co/i5YaQJsKop

That quote was from the movie The Untouchables. And there's no way anybody reading that quote in good faith could conclude that he was talking about actual guns and knives. But it became a big talking point on the
In 2018, Obama-era Attorney General Eric Holder was speaking to a group of Georgia Democrats about GOP voter suppression. He riffed on Michelle Obama's "When they go low, we go high" line from the 2016 DNC.