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It is difficult to change a 10-year trend.

Long-term expectations do not change as frequently as daily market fluctuations would make it seem.

A quick update on Treasury rates through the lens of the DKW model

*As of Dec. 31*

1/

In previous threads, I made the distinction between long-term secular trends in growth and inflation and shorter-term (2-6 quarters) trends in nGDP


Right now, the long-term trends are unaltered because long-term trends just don't change that fast but we have a very strong cyclical upturn in the economy, centered primarily on the shift to goods consumption bolstering the manufacturing sector and industrial commodities.

3/


As long as the industrial sector continues to roar, TSY rates will have an upward bias as rates generally follow the trend in nGDP growth

A 10yr TSY has longterm expectations embedded in the rate so several qrters, while important, won't necessarily change the longterm trend

4/


This is confirmed by the Dec update to the DKW model which breaks down *actual* inflation expectations, the expected real short-term rate (real growth), term premium, liquidity premium etc.

The DKW model is one of many models that is useful but has many limitations.

5/
Malcolm Nance fell for memes and has gotten 11 likes, and 7k retweets so far
I will use this thread to explain the concept of "administrative bloat."

Administrative bloat is the employing of so many managers and supervisors, paying them excess salaries, while the people who do the actual work don't get employed or paid.

That is the government of Kenya.


Since the time of GoK's mother the colonial government, and its grandmother the British East Africa company, the role of the state is to control workers, control our work and its produce, and send it up the foodchain through chiefs, paramount chiefs all the way to London.

One of the cultural lies these parasistes have sold to us is that the only work that can be exploited is where there is a tangible product like tea or coffee. No. These exploit EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING. Health, education, faith, religion...EVERTYHING.

Elites are parasites. They can't work, won't work. How do they live, then? From taking away the work that we do. They use the state (especially weapons) to threaten us, and they get bureaucrats and managers to distract workers and push the loot up the gravy train.

That is why the less the elites work, the more bureaucrats the employ to protect them from direct contact with us "peasants." That's the function of civil servants. To steal our work on behalf of the elite, while conning us that we're working out of national duty.
Merry Christmas everyone with a new #WednesdayWagner instalment. Today: TRISTAN CHORD IN 'DIE WALKÜRE'! What happens next will surprise you
#Christmas #Wagner #Tristan #Walkure #TwitterCultural


Yesterday (all my troubles seemed...). No, seriously. Yesterday, I made a discovery that blew my mind and I am so happy to share it with you. Let's start by listening to Act 2, Scene 5 of 'Die Walküre' in a superb performance by Böhm in

The scene begins with the 'Fate' leitmotif, which was already presented in the thread below ⬇️Note that harmony goes from a minor chord to a dominant chord just 1 semitone


This sequence of chords are used in different keys, with different configurations, even as the closing part of the 'Annunciation of Death' motive (this can be listened to at 0.33 in the link above ⬆️)


The last bars of this 'Annunciation of Death' contains the 'Fate' motive with a slight variation of harmony. Notice that we can almost hear the Tristan Chord there (marked in red in the figure below).
[Thread]
For those who followed last summer's exposure of #GenevanCommons hate group, there is an update.

It seems beneath my dignity to report it.
But then again, so much of what women end up having to say is beneath our dignity. 1/11

For *some* of the back story, see here:
https://t.co/ojo19jWyvs

and

Reminder: This group had upwards of 1,000 church officer and laypeople members. They mocked and slandered many, many of their brothers and sisters with racist, sexist and homophobic slurs. They plotted to disrupt their sister’s work for the church.

Last weekend, #GenevanCommons member Rev. Michael Spangler faced charges in a church trial. Two others in this presbytery have not been charged, though one has demitted office. 4/11

Charges
1: offenses against his brothers, “sowing discord in the church by publicly disparaging the governance of the Presbytery”
2: “publicly reviling and detracting Mrs. Aimee Byrd & Mrs. Rachel Miller,” focused especially on 2 WORDS Spangler wrote: “ruthless wolves.” 5/11