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This is what happens when you train neural networks largely on tone and its stylistic relics. They pick up formal features of arguments (not so much fallacies as tics) that have almost nothing to do with semantic content (focus on connotation over implication).


This is a secular problem in the discipline. It's got nothing to do with the Analytic/Continental split in the anglophone world. They've both got the same ramifying signal/noise problem, it's just that the styles (tics and connotations) are different in each pedagogical context.

And this is before we start talking about tone policing and topic policing, which are both rife and essentially make the peer review journal system completely unfit for purpose, populated as it is by a random sampling of pedants selecting for syntactic noise over semantic signal.

We've allowed a system of self-reinforcing and ratcheting filters to evolve that effectively *fuzzes* our contribution to the growth of human knowledge (https://t.co/VmW15pGt7J), because it selects for properties only loosely related to those we claim to want. Let that sink in.

This is literally the opposite of what a filter is supposed to do: extract signal from noise, syntactic compression that preserves semantic content. Instead we are awash in syntactic artifacts optimised for minimal criticisable content and maximal pedantic posturing.
THREAD: Someone just asked me about the potential of @Pan_Quake in the context of #wallstreetbets yesterday.

Had PanQuake been in the mix, what could it have done?

The answer is *a LOT*.

I'm going to explain below.


Nevermind corporate PR campaigns, digital marketing companies or advertising - NOTHING spreads information faster or more effectively than word of mouth

PanQuake has designed a brand new first-time-ever set of amplification tools that takes word of mouth and puts it on steroids

Example #1: PanQuakes

PanQuakes would have let #wallstreetbets fans, in a series of swift clicks, select the best commentary/info about WSB (either their own messages or others or a combination thereof) & in one click convert them into a single link shareable anywhere on the net

Anyone who clicks on the link (called a PanQuake, the function for which we named the platform) would be taken to a web page with a custom timeline populated with the messages the user had selected to be displayed

ie. no more big tech choosing what we see - now we get to choose!

Example #2: ThunderQuakes

Ppl who were really excited about what #wallstreetbets was doing could choose to expend ThunderQuakes on it. Either by gifting ThunderQuakes points to key WSB accounts, to help them better amplify their messages, or by crafting TQ messages of their own
I dare anyone to read Critical Race Theory: An Introduction for themselves and try to believe this idiotic distortion. The book is both horrifying and laughably shallow. Read it yourself. You'll see. Last time I read it, I literally laughed out loud repeatedly at how stupid it is


I have screenshots of some choice material, but I have to admit that I stopped taking them because it's virtually all of the book that's transparently bad and ridiculous. Maybe I need to start sharing them anyway.

You can read the whole book for yourself in about four or five hours. It's neither long nor difficult. It's transparently awful and stupid, and it makes a person wonder what people like Bradley Mason are on about trying to bullshit you away from recognizing that.

Here, they say they're skeptical of rights.

This is after saying in the first paragraph that they diverge from the Civil Rights Movement and oppose the liberal order, equality theory, legal reasoning, Enlightenment rationalism, and neutral principles of constitutional law.


Look at how stupid the questions for deeper exploration are. It's literally making the case for propaganda over truth and then accusing white people of being the only people who confuse the two.
It is difficult to change a 10-year trend.

Long-term expectations do not change as frequently as daily market fluctuations would make it seem.

A quick update on Treasury rates through the lens of the DKW model

*As of Dec. 31*

1/

In previous threads, I made the distinction between long-term secular trends in growth and inflation and shorter-term (2-6 quarters) trends in nGDP


Right now, the long-term trends are unaltered because long-term trends just don't change that fast but we have a very strong cyclical upturn in the economy, centered primarily on the shift to goods consumption bolstering the manufacturing sector and industrial commodities.

3/


As long as the industrial sector continues to roar, TSY rates will have an upward bias as rates generally follow the trend in nGDP growth

A 10yr TSY has longterm expectations embedded in the rate so several qrters, while important, won't necessarily change the longterm trend

4/


This is confirmed by the Dec update to the DKW model which breaks down *actual* inflation expectations, the expected real short-term rate (real growth), term premium, liquidity premium etc.

The DKW model is one of many models that is useful but has many limitations.

5/
Malcolm Nance fell for memes and has gotten 11 likes, and 7k retweets so far