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I’m guessing these responses really reflect people’s weighted averages (age*current average effort fraction) though I kept it simple and asked for just averages.

 I suspect a healthy weighted average should be ~ (age-20)/2. So a 30 year old should be at 5, a 40 year old at 10, a 50 year old at 15 etc.

Standard deviation should be ~average/3 maybe, so distribution spreads as you age and accumulate projects and get better at them.
Other things being equal, people get good at starting in their 20s, at follow through in 30s, at finishing in 40s.

No point learning food follow through until you’ve found a few good starts to bet on. No point getting good at finishing until a few projects have aged gracefully.
I’m in the 7+ range myself. Probably 8-9. Slightly less than healthy for my age.
I suspect most self-judgments on being good starters/follow-through-ers/finishers are really flawed because of the non-ergodicity of project management skill learning. You can’t learn good practices for the 3 phases in an arbitrary order. On,y one order actually works.
My oldest live project, rather appropriately is probably “time studies.” Ongoing since at least 2003. 17y old.

Second oldest is ribbonfarm at 13 years old.

Then sparring-style consulting-fu, 10 years old.

Breaking smart, 6 years old.

My portfolio is getting long in the tooth
Most projects worth pursuing long term don’t even actually start until they come alive after a year or two of futzing around and tinkering. Ribbonfarm took to years to get to ignition. My interest in time took 3 years to get to ignition with a journal paper (2004-07).
The “ignition” moment is when an opinionated understanding of the thing meets enough stuff on the canvas already so you can see where you’re going. “Vision” requires not a blank canvas but an incoherently full one, the detritus of sufficient futzing, muddling, trial and error.
Being a good starter in ambiguous, uncertain domains is about having a calibrated sense of how many false starts you can expect vs how many you can afford, to make commitment decisions. If it’s going to take 2y+10 false starts and you only have 1 y/5 starts in you, don’t bother.
Good follow through is about getting “married” to a project and committing to it long term, once you decide you’re off to a good start. https://t.co/yeswAStdYm
Good finishing (n=4 experience, all in the 2-5 year range) is about caring enough to stick the landing elegantly. I’d rate myself a B- on this, though I’ve never yet fumbled an important finish when it mattered.
While I rarely choke or quit on a finish, I also don’t have that magic strong-finish switch some seem to. Maybe 1 in 4 finishes I’ll get that closer-energy burst and sprint to the finish line, but 3 of 4 times I’ll kind huff and puff and stagger across the finish line.
Quitting is a strength if you typically do it early, but a weakness if you typically do it late. If you’re gonna quit, do it before the ignite moment. For me the trigger is realizing something will take more false starts than I care to invest.

More from Venkatesh Rao

Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr
Both this thread and the outraged response threads are... something.


This is why I never wanted kids. Way too much responsibility for another human’s development. Depending on the child, this might either be the day they discovered who they were or the day that traumatized them into a lifelong fuckup. Either way I don’t want to direct the show.

As far as the can opener goes, it wouldn’t even occur to me to try and turn it into a teachable moment. That sounds vaguely quixotic. I’d just show them how immediately. I think my default is to try and instruct clearly but not demonstrate unless the person is truly disoriented.

I think there’s basically a right answer here: show the kid. If the kid has the aptitude they’ll enjoy the mechanism so much they’ll develop the figure-it-out skill with other devices. If not, it’s a training data point that will build remedial levels of intuition more slowly.

I think perseverance is both misframed and over-rated as a virtue. Misframed as in: everybody has potential for it in some areas and lacks it in others. Aptitude is those areas where perseverance comes easily to you. Meta-skill of knowing where/why you persist is more important.
SOCIETY
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr
There are only 3 real challenges to free speech at the tech level a) the need for CDNs at scale b) distortions of net neutrality c) nation-state firewalls.

All other claims are about social governance on private sites, where applying free speech doctrine is a stretch at best

Baseline free speech has expanded modestly since 1776 or whatever your reference point is.

About 20% beyond core case of government-critical speech in formally public spaces and media I'd say.

You can (for example) have more kinds of conversations in a bar without getting punched or kicked out by other patrons or management. You can teach more things in colleges than 100 years ago.

That's a genuine de facto increase in practical, informal free speech/expression.

But online free "speech" is, as @reneed has pointed out, not an expansion of free speech at all, but an expansion of reach. It is like the secondary freedom of the press to print as many copies as they can afford, not primary freedom to say what they want

If a newspaper wants to print more copies it has buy more printing equipment and front more upfront costs. Reach for a paper publication is not "free", but a function of desired circulation, which in turn is a function of demand prediction etc. But that logic is obscured online.
TECH
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Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr
stacks are eating the world

business used to be easiest to comprehend via a) market-based logic of horizontal vs. vertical STRUCTURE, b) professionalization/specialization based FUNCTION c) core competencies based BEHAVIORS

this has pretty much collapsed in the last decade

Structure = sclerosis
Functional specialization = bureaucracy
competencies = inertial habits

"Stack" thinking instead lets technology structure (rather than market structure) drive business org logic

Companies seem to do well when they identify an entire stack of technologies they are good at (not just point bits) and organize to conform to its logic. There is a "full-stack" dimension of technical specialization that is the spine of the org

It feels buzzwordy, but it really is getting to be that way. AI stack, decarbonization stack, mobility stack, electrification stack... some end-to-end pathway of turning physics into economics via layers of tech artistically baked together like a cake
CRYPTO , FOR LATER READ
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr
social media use really calls for something closer to a driver's license than terms of service... most apparent bad behavior here is more incompetence than malice, like not knowing how to change lanes or take turns at a 4-way stop..

trump's history on twitter is something closer to a crazy car chase on LA streets than bad driving (with the cops MIA, but media helicopters in pursuit), but almost all unpleasantness around here is just poor driving skills

not that I'm advocating for a licensing regime... that would be a terrible thing. Do not need a social media DMV. But the underlying principles (as tested for eg. in the written and road tests) are pretty good.

Written test would test things like "safe following distance" (reply-guying = tailgating?)

Road test would actually expose you to routine provocations. Like, "make a left turn" = "deal with this concern troll"

As in the driving test, where an awkward, unnatural, and unintuitive bit, the parallel parking test, is the toughest bit, there would be some such awkward maneuver you'd have to learn (hmmm... what's the parallel parking equivalent on twitter?)
SOCIAL MEDIA
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr
Heh, one thing the nyt piece managed was to do a Cunningham's law nerdsnipe-wmd at newspaper scale... now a bunch of people are energetically trying to post the right answer.


IMO trying to correct whatever the NYT writer thought he knew/understood is futile. "Willing to be misunderstood by the NYT" should be the default stance unless you want to waste a lot of time correcting an obsolete 2013 map for people who don't care.

The thing is, the NYT still has enough normative cultural power, even as it has fallen from newspaper-of-record, that it takes a particular sort of heretical self-confidence to sort of ignore whatever they happen to be wrong about on any given week, whether or not it concerns you

A subtle shift has occurred in the workings of the Gell-Mann amnesia effect. It used to be an individual private amnesia re: media ("I'll believe myself when I am certain they got it wrong because I'm an expert, but still believe them when I am not"). Now it's a collective effect

A sort of common-knowledge threshold has been crossed lately. "Everybody knows that everybody knows the NYT is wrong on X across largish subcultures." It's no longer mutual beliefs being validated occasionally 1:1.
SOCIOLOGY

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Enigma
Enigma
@ainittomai
On December 25 Mr Pool retweeted August 16 message about the Phoenix and that the worst was still on the horizon to come. 1/*


Maybe now we can assume that November 3 message meant "FUD" nor "FUN". Putting the word in capital letters seems to indicate the aspect the word fud has in our space, FUD. 2/*


Brad started it on December 22 (1/3 posts (Don't say? Sure) = 13 = Plan B). 3/*


And immediately the SEC followed dropping the bomb (1.3 billions (Don't say? Sure) = 13 = Plan B). 4/*


FUD materializes, Bitstamp is one of the first that haltes XRP trading and so on. 5/*
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Cory Doctorow #BLM
Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow
After the 9/11 attacks, airlines and public buildings adopted a flurry of "security" measures, like taking away pen-knives from fliers or requiring visitors to office buildings to be photographed or present a driver's license.

1/


Bruce Schneier's seminal 2003 "Beyond Fear" called these measures: #securitytheater.

Schneier pointed out that these measures would be easy to circumvent, and were thus providing only the comforting appearance of security - not security

Security theater is worse than nothing. Security theater gives people the false impression that their risks have been mitigated, when actually things are just as dangerous.

After al, if you know that danger exists, you can take some steps to mitigate or avoid it.

3/

But if you have the false impression that you've been made safer, you might unwittingly engage in risky behavior.

4/

Like, if you know your car's brakes are flaky, you might nurse the car along to the mechanic at low speed on side-streets.

But if you don't know about the brakes, you're apt to discover their flaws at 75mph on the freeway.

5/
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Eli Tyre
Eli Tyre
@EpistemicHope
There's a particular kind of romantic partnership, with a certain sort of person, that I've wanted since I became a self-aware, directed agent at around age 15.

Empirically, this kind of relationship has been hard to achieve. It hasn't worked out yet, at least.

And this sometimes leaves me wondering if my standards are unreasonable.

In years past that desire was often very alive.

These days, I'm rarely directly or viscerally in contact with it.

I sometimes contemplate aiming for some other kind of romantic and/or sexual relationship instead. In part because I might be more effective if I...I don't know, got laid more? But that's not really the thing. More like, if I had someone around whom I could regularly relax.

But mostly, I don't pursue those alternative relationship-setups out of a sense of something like loyalty to myself + a vague sense of wrongness and/or sadness about it. It often feels like giving up or giving in.

[I might elaborate on the wrongness sometime.]
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MALUME ZANO
MALUME ZANO
@ZanoUrban
(PART 3) Angels - Izingelosi | Izithunywa of the 1st Sphere 🕯

[A Smallanyana Thread]

On Part 1 and 2, you will notice that we covered Angels that somehow also resemble human physical/ manifested features.

Part of the classic examples of how we as humans always depict these Celestial Beings through our works of art.

As we move up to the 1st Sphere of the Christian Angelology Hierarchy we get introduced to another breed of Izithunywa.

Let's Begin 📖

THRONES:

Also known as the Elders, they are a class of Celestial Beings mentioned by Paul the Apostle in Colossians 1:16, and they are also mentioned in the Book of Revelations as the 24 Elders.

They are the living symbols of God's justice and authority, symbolised as Thrones.

They are also associated with the Ophanim from the Jewish Angelic Hierarchy (Which we will still cover in detail within this series of Threads).

The Ophanim are referenced as Wheels seen in Ezekiel's vision of the Chariot in Ezekiel 1:15 - 21.

Also refer to Elijah's ascension.
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Operation Cupcake
Operation Cupcake
@PhillipsBarrie
Wow, Morgan McSweeney again, Rachel Riley, SFFN, Center for Countering Digital Hate, Imran Ahmed, JLM, BoD, Angela Eagle, Tracy-Ann Oberman, Lisa Nandy, Steve Reed, Jon Cruddas, Trevor Chinn, Martin Taylor, Lord Ian Austin and Mark Lewis. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut 24 tweet🧵

Morgan McSweeney, Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, launched the organisation that now runs SFFN.
The CEO Imran Ahmed worked closely with a number of Labour figures involved in the campaign to remove Jeremy as leader.

Rachel Riley is listed as patron. https://t.co/nGY5QrwBD0


SFFN claims that it has been “a project of the Center For Countering Digital Hate” since 4 May 2020. The relationship between the two organisations, however, appears to date back far longer. And crucially, CCDH is linked to a number of figures on the Labour right. #LabourLeaks

Center for Countering Digital Hate registered at Companies House on 19 Oct 2018, the organisation’s only director was Morgan McSweeney – Labour leader Keir Starmer’s chief of staff. McSweeney was also the campaign manager for Liz Kendall’s leadership bid. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut

Sir Keir - along with his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney - held his first meeting with the Jewish Labour Movement (JLM). Deliberately used the “anti-Semitism” crisis as a pretext to vilify and then expel a leading pro-Corbyn activist in Brighton and Hove
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Liz (Welsh) Beechinor \U0001f605
Liz (Welsh) Beechinor ...
@LizTweetsTech
My dad led an organization of over 300,000 employees.

When I took on my biggest marketing & events team to date (35 employees) I asked him how the *heck* he did it. Here's what he said and what helped me every day. 🧵

Remember you're leading all the employees under you, but you're not *managing* them all. You're managing your direct reports, which should be 5-7 individuals max. Focus on them.

When you interact with the employees you don't manage directly, get to know them as people first, that'll be the most valuable information in leading them. Remembering everything you learn about them is hard, but doing so will make you a superhero.

If you're not going to empower the managers under you, why do you have them? If you see room for improvement, let the manager know and let them make the change on their teams and come to you with questions/concerns. This will save you SO much time.

If you're the smartest person in any room - you're doing it wrong. As a leader, your job is bringing together the best people to get the job done - your skillset is identifying those people, not being one of them.
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Guillaume Chaslot
Guillaume Chaslot
@gchaslot
The YouTube algorithm that I helped build in 2011 still recommends the flat earth theory by the *hundreds of millions*. This investigation by @RawStory shows some of the real-life consequences of this badly designed AI.


This spring at SxSW, @SusanWojcicki promised "Wikipedia snippets" on debated videos. But they didn't put them on flat earth videos, and instead @YouTube is promoting merchandising such as "NASA lies - Never Trust a Snake". 2/


A few example of flat earth videos that were promoted by YouTube #today:
https://t.co/TumQiX2tlj 3/

https://t.co/uAORIJ5BYX 4/

https://t.co/yOGZ0pLfHG 5/
TECH , FLAT EARTH
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Suhas S. Hardutt
Suhas S. Hardutt
@HarduttSuhas
THE BATTLE OF TALIKOTA and the destruction of Vijaynagar (Hampi)
26 January 1565

A tale of valor, deception and decimation.

A grim reminder that if we fail to protect our heritage, it will eventually crumble under the onslaught of "forces of anarchy".
(Elaborate thread)


This decisive battle was fought between the Vijayanagara empire and the Deccan sultanates resulting in a rout of Vijayanagara and ending the last major medieval era Hindu kingdom in south India.(1)

The seeds of 1565 encounter were sown more than 250 years earlier when the forces of the Delhi Sultanate, during the time of Alauddin Khilji and later Md Bin Tughlaq swept through southern India in an expansion spree.(2)

By middle of the 14th century, facing rebellions, Tughlaq withdrew to Delhi, leaving behind 2 empires, Bahmani, which ruled the Deccan from Kalaburagi, and Vijayanagara, which ruled most south India with its capital at Vijayanagar.(3)

The Raichur Doab, between the Krishna and Tungabhadra rivers, existed as a natural boundary between these two kingdoms, with wars often breaking out over control of this territory.(4)
HISTORY
sriram
sriram
@SriramKannan77
Swami Ramanujar:
Important personalities in Sri Ramanujas Life :
🌸ASURI KESHAVA SOMAYAJI-Father of Sri Ramanujar .Asuri keshava somayaji was a learned brahmana living in sriperumbudur.


🌸KANTHIMATHI-Mother of Sri Ramanuja. Kanthimathi was the sister of sri periya thirumalai nambi .
🌸SRI YAMUNACHARYA-Acharya of Sri Ramanuja.Also known as Alavandar.
🌸THIRUKOKOSHTIYUR NAMBI-Also known as Ghosti Purna.He instructed the Rahasya Traya to Sri Ramanujar.

He lived in thirukoshtiyur.
🌸THIRUKKACHI NAMBI-Kanchi purna was born in puvirunthavalli near kanchipuram and met the young ramanuja at an important time.He did the service of Lord Varadha.

🌸THIRUVARANGA PERUMAL ARAIYAR-Important acharya lived in srirangam and rendered the service of playing music for lord Sriranganatha.

🌸PERIYA THIRUMALAI NAMBI-He was the maternal uncle of Sri Ramanuja.He taught sri ramanuja about the epic of sri ramayana and other ithihaas and puranas.Served sri venkateswara at tirumala.
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI SWETHA VINAYAGAR, THIRUVALANCHUZHI, KUMBAKONAM
(TN)
#bharatmandir

While main deity is Shiva as Kapartheeswarar, the kshetram is famous for Ganesha, known as Swetha/Vellai Vinayagar (white Vinayak)

During samudra manthan, Vasuki snake (used as rope) started spewing venom.


Unable to bear the intense heat, Devas rushed to Siva. He told them that this was because the task was started without getting Ganesha’s approval.
So the Devas created a Ganesha murti from white sea foam and worshipped it.
It was later taken by Indra to Indralok.
@GunduHuDuGa


But once Indra had to come to Earth to pray to Shiva to seek relief from a curse inflicted on him. So he brought the murti of Ganesha with him. When he came here, he wanted to take bath before puja. So he gave the murti to a boy to hold for sometime. The boy was actually Shiva.


He kept the murti down and vanished. Indra could not lift it again and a divine voice told him to let Vinayagar stay there and visit every Ganesh Chaturthi to pray.
Since Vinayagar is made of foam, no abhishekam is done here. Only punugu is applied n camphor powder is sprinkled
ALL