1/ Thoughts on the Myth of the "First Mover"

This thread by @danrose stirred something I've been thinking about for a while - the myth of first mover advantage

To this day, most people assume Amazon Web Services was the first cloud computing service. This isn't quite true

2/ At its March 2006 launch, AWS was probably the 4th or 5th cloud service run by a Fortune 500 firm

HP launched its Flexible Computing Service in Nov 2005
Sun Grid went into beta in 2004
IBM launched "Linux Virtual Services" in 2002!

But AWS is the only one anybody remembers
3/ I'll focus on IBM here -

From the WSJ in *2002*: "Linux Virtual Services allows customers to run their own software on mainframes in IBM data centers and pay rates based largely on the amount of computing power they use"

https://t.co/mnKH8dF6IL

Sounds like the cloud to me!
4/ Origin stories of AWS often cite how Bezo's uncanny prediction of computing becoming a utility, like an electric grid

But Bezos didn't invent this analogy - it was widespread by the early 2000s. Here's Lou Gerstner saying the same thing in 2003
5/ So why did AWS succeed while IBM did not?

IMO there are no good explanations online. IBM LVS was quietly shut down in 2005-06. The exact date is unclear

Answering this became a personal project for me at Bernstein. I ended up cold-calling multiple former IBM product managers
6/ The short answer: the innovator's dilemma

IBM LVS never achieved product market fit. IBM tried selling it to existing corporate customers. They didn't want it

And IBM's own incentives were misaligned - salespeople didn't want to cannibalize existing accounts
7/ In contrast, Amazon had no existing IT customers to cannibalize. They had to sell AWS to someone, or they wouldn't get paid

That's how to found their first best customers: independent software devs and startups, paying by credit card
8/ The cloud was ultimately adopted bottoms up, not top down. AWS laddered up to enterprise customers from there

The result is 14 years later, AWS is a $50B business growing 30% a year, while IBM is a $70B business shrinking 3% a year
9/ What's the lesson here?

Being a first mover is overrated. Predicting the future is easy - plenty of people understood the future of cloud computing, even in 2003

The hard part was everything else. Timing matters. Execution matters. Incentives matter. Luck too!

More from Finance

THREAD: Who are the rising stars of Chinese elite politics in the central Party-State bureaucracy?

For @MacroPoloChina I analyzed last year's ministerial-level promotions to posts in Beijing

TLDR: Ties to Xi Jinping—or a Xi ally—are very helpful! (1/14)

https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2


Seven politicians were promoted to ministerial-level positions in central Party agencies last year

All are likely to feature on the next Central Committee selected at the 2022 Party Congress

Some could make the CCP's elite 25-person Politburo (2/14)

https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2


Likeliest for the Politburo is Meng Xiangfeng, new Executive Deputy Director of the CCP General Office

He would replace Xi ally Ding Xuexiang as CCP chief-of-staff if Ding is promoted further in 2022

Meng worked under Xi allies Cai Qi in Hangzhou and Chen Xi in Liaoning (3/14)


Less likely for the Politburo but still important is Jiang Jinquan, new Director of the CCP Policy Research Office

He replaces 5th-ranked leader Wang Huning who led the Party's brains trust for 18 years

Wang remains prominent and will be <68 in 2022, so he'll stay around (4/14)


Other notable central Party promotions include Li Shulei and Liang Yanshun, who both assisted Xi when he led the Central Party School from 2007-2012

Li is a political conservative who is said to be quite close with Xi, even drafting his 2014 speech on culture and art (5/14)
Here are all the threads posted by @AdityaTodmal and @niki_poojary in January: 🧵

• 8 powerful ways to use Twitter
• Power of Stocks
• 14 Trading Strategies
• Basics of Derivatives (3 parts)
• Technical Analysis for all sectors
• Tweets of the week
• Books on Futures

All the Top 10 tweets threads I have ever posted to date:


Basics of Derivatives Part 1:


8 powerful ways to use Twitter:


Basics of Derivatives Part 2:

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The chorus of this song uses the shlokas taken from Sundarkand of Ramayana.

It is a series of Sanskrit shlokas recited by Jambavant to Hanuman to remind Him of his true potential.

1. धीवर प्रसार शौर्य भरा: The brave persevering one, your bravery is taking you forward.


2. उतसारा स्थिरा घम्भीरा: The one who is leaping higher and higher, who is firm and stable and seriously determined.

3. ुग्रामा असामा शौर्या भावा: He is strong, and without an equal in the ability/mentality to fight

4. रौद्रमा नवा भीतिर्मा: His anger will cause new fears in his foes.

5.विजिटरीपुरु धीरधारा, कलोथरा शिखरा कठोरा: This is a complex expression seen only in Indic language poetry. The poet is stating that Shivudu is experiencing the intensity of climbing a tough peak, and likening

it to the feeling in a hard battle, when you see your enemy defeated, and blood flowing like a rivulet. This is classical Veera rasa.

6.कुलकु थारथिलीथा गम्भीरा, जाया विराट वीरा: His rough body itself is like a sharp weapon (because he is determined to win). Hail this complete

hero of the world.

7.विलयगागनथाला भिकारा, गरज्जद्धरा गारा: The hero is destructive in the air/sky as well (because he can leap at an enemy from a great height). He can defeat the enemy (simply) with his fearsome roar of war.