The IPP deal is in final stages.
last week two separate meetings took place by energy and finance teams - one with the PM (on overall reforms of energy sector). The other was with the COAS - specifically on IPPs deal and CD. 1/9

Based on these meetings and IMF's nod, yesterday a proposal is shared with 50 IPPs - pre-94, 94, 2002 and 2006 policy to pay the accumulated CD to materialize IPPs MOUs into agreements. IPPs wanted (out of Rs400-450 bn dues) 1/3rd in cash and 2/3rd in PIBs in a go 2/9
Govt proposed the same in three instalments - 1/3rd in Jan,1/3rd in Jun &1/3rd in Dec. Here IPPs have to sign the agreement based on 1/3rd immediate settlement (within it 1/3rd cash and 2/3rd PIBs) and rest on promises.
But the govt promises are not honored- that is why CD is 3/9
IPPs are mainly on board. Hubco thinks that settlement will take place with some give and take. @MManshaOfficial is saying that we are on board for larger country's interest - and we can use this money for fresh investment. One can safely say that the deal is done. 4/9
Its clearing the existing stock of debt on old IPPs - last time it was done in 2013 - now the whole energy chain may pay dividends- energy stocks at #PSX are rallying today. The elephant in room is 2015 onward projects. Nothing on it yet. 5/9
Without it CD flows build up to continue. Government has to deal with the Chinese in it. The talks are happening at very high level - PM and COAS. the grapevine is that if the Chinese debt is renegotiated. This will support west narrative of expensive Chinese debt. 6/9
There might be some other form of settlement to take place. Such as Chinese paying in some other form to compensate. Its all in air till now. But without these, the power sector CD resolution cannot take place. 7/9
There is second elephant in the room. Discos. Power SAMP thinks that transferring to provinces is the solutions. But govt wants these to privatize as per IMF plans. The Fund agreed on clearing CD based on Rs3-3.5/unit increase in base tariff till June and privatization. 8/9
Don't count your chickens before they hatch. The CD stock of IPPs is done. IMF is on board. Base tariffs are to be revised up. But to end this vicious cycle - 2015 onwards IPPs are to be dealt with 9/9

More from Finance

I'm lucky to attain financial freedom before 30.

I credit Fintwit for my learnings.

Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:

1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger

(Read on...)

6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies

Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:

1. How much $$ do you need to retire

Before you start, you must know the end game.

To meet your retirement goals...

How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?

10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.

Hint: It's NOT


2. Research a business

Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.

Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.

Conclusion?

To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.

Start with


3. Reading annual reports

This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.

You cannot just listen to opinions from others.

You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.

Start with the 10k.

Ming Zhao explains it

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Ivor Cummins has been wrong (or lying) almost entirely throughout this pandemic and got paid handsomly for it.

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... other sources who have been trying to shine on light on this grifter (as I have tried to do, time and again:


Example #1: "Still not seeing Sweden signal versus Denmark really"... There it was (Images attached).
19 to 80 is an over 300% difference.

Tweet: https://t.co/36FnYnsRT9


Example #2 - "Yes, I'm comparing the Noridcs / No, you cannot compare the Nordics."

I wonder why...

Tweets: https://t.co/XLfoX4rpck / https://t.co/vjE1ctLU5x


Example #3 - "I'm only looking at what makes the data fit in my favour" a.k.a moving the goalposts.

Tweets: https://t.co/vcDpTu3qyj / https://t.co/CA3N6hC2Lq