Wiley buys Hindawi -- a $298 million acquisition for GBP 25 million in annual APC revenues -- in bid to expand open-access platforms @pbasken

I'm really fascinated by several things about this acquisition. 1. One could posit that APC business models in structural decline as they are replaced by transformative agreements. Will Hindawi titles be folded into Wiley TA's or offered as a separate "pure publish" model?
2. Seems that there is little concern about geopolitical risk: "Wiley…saw value in Hindawi’s strong position in Asia, the world’s largest and fastest growing academic publishing market…“Hindawi’s significant footprint in in China is a major benefit from that perspective”"
3. It seems some in the academic community continue to be "alarmed" when, after taking advantage of private capital to fund commercial start-ups for open access services (bepress; SSRN; now Hindawi), that capital looks to sell in search of returns. As if this is a surprise!
4. Most interesting will be to see how this expansion of Wiley's OA portfolio and platforms/workflows/services can connect with its important businesses in support of society publishing.
5. "Wiley anticipates achieving significant revenue synergies from the expansion of its open access journal portfolio and its beneficial impact on article cascade, added publishing capacity, and upsell opportunities for publishing and platform services." https://t.co/rKnTb0TqCG
6. "If Zoom calls with MDPI and PLOS aren’t being scheduled now by Elsevier, Springer Nature, or Taylor & Francis, I’d be surprised." Maybe not literally PLOS as an NFP but definitely consolidation will continue apace. https://t.co/ocpqfOiSuS
7. Very important to recognize, as does @lorcanD, that both Wiley and Hindawi are not just publishers but also platform developers and providers: https://t.co/TWJhfkYZxZ
8. Plan S collateral damage? @RouhiRoo is right to ask where the ecosystem is heading for "independents" https://t.co/gf9fJb1jmW

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Ok here is the explanation. Grab a cup of coffee and read on. If you have not read/noticed this, you will see intraday options movement in a new light.


Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points

To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs

Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM

Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk

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