$NOVN DD Thread (1)
Title: A fundamental analysis covering the most important and valuable information about the recently published 10-Q report of Novan Inc. An in-depth discussion on certain formulations and developments in the area of equity financing and investor interest.
Let‘s start with a look at some numbers on the balance sheet: Total current assets have been increased significantly compared to December 31, 2019. With cash and cash equivalents in the amount of $43,072M we can see that $NOVN...
In its consolidated financial statements, $NOVN clarifies how this initial financial situation will affect future operating business.
(The following is only an abridged version of financial transactions that were included in the company’s financing activities during the course of the year.) $NOVN
March 2020 Public Offering:
- Underwriter: H.C. Wainwright
- Issuance and sale of 14M shares, pre-funded warrants to purchase 4,333,334 shares (Note: CMPO-Pre-Funded-Warrants) and common warrants to purchase 18,333,334 shares (firm warrants)...
- Combined price to the public (each share of common stock and accompanying common warrants): $0.30 / Combined price to the public (each pre-funded warrant and accompanying common warrant): $0.2999.
- Public Offering closed on March 3, 2020. $NOVN
- Exercise price for CMPO Pre-Funded Warrants = $0.0001 per share.
- Exercise price for CMPO Common Warrants = $0.30 per share.
- Exercise price...
- Net proceeds from the offering and from the exercise of CMPO Common Warrants: $5,158M and $5,538M.
Most important aspect of this summary is the amount of exercised warrants throughout this year. We‘ll talk about this later. $NOVN
- Underwriters: Several institutional and accredited investors.
- Issuance and sale of 10,55M shares and pre-funded warrants to purchase 8,054,652 shares (the RDO-Pre-Funded-Warrants).
- Purchase price for each share = $0.43
- Offering closed on March 26, 2020.
- $NOVN also issued to the designees of HC Wainwright, as placement agent, warrants to purchase 558,140 shares (the RDO-PA-Warrants).
- Net proceeds from the offering = $7,225M.
- Exercise price for the RDO PA Warrants = $0.5375 per share.
Again, all RDO Pre-Funded Warrants have been completely exercised. $NOVN
- Joseph Moglia participated in the March 2020 Regist. Direct Offering and purchased 1M shares for $430,000. He‘s a greater than 5% Owner.
- June 2020 Aspire CF PA: $20M worth of shares. Primary conditions: purchasing stock at the company’s request,...
- $NOVN issued to...
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Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflation
It has been clear for several months that we are in the middle of a cyclical rise in
Now, in the short-term, the manufacturing sector is red hot, driven by a pent-up demand rebound in goods consumption.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 4, 2021
Commodity prices are screaming which gives legs to "goods" inflation in the short-term.
8) pic.twitter.com/rQcqHf1OD0
The full thread can be reviewed here:
Consensus continues to conflate the inflation story, mixing and matching long-term and short-term charts to fit what is generally a secular inflation narrative.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 4, 2021
Here are my two cents to make the distinction clear.
1)
Today's PPI report should have been expected to surprise to the upside as the leading indicators of inflation have been screaming to the upside for months!
Here is the ISM prices paid index, cumulated into a growth rate
3/
Industrial commodity prices have also seen a major acceleration for months.
4/
So today's PPI report was in line with the leads, suggesting that we have a cyclical upturn in inflation that is * primarily concentrated in the manufacturing sector *
This is a key point.
5/
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Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020
LifeLog, via DARPA, terminated on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook was launched on Feb 4th, 2004.
Many of the LifeLog team became execs at FB.
Zuckerberg is a figurehead.
CIA allowed Cambridge to help Trump win
https://t.co/enzOXDCogV
Project: Lifelog
— Robert Horan (@Robby12692) December 13, 2018
Started by DARPA in 1999, the goal of Lifelog was to create a database on civilians without their knowledge, and track everything they do.
The project "ended" on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook began the exact same day.
The CIA funneled tens of millions into Facebook. pic.twitter.com/r7hwF0v9kh
Pentagon Kills LifeLog