As part of the BC Basic Income project, my team and I were tasked with trying to understand the system of income and social supports available to BC residents. We developed these visualizations which have proven very popular

Our intuitions often leads us astray. A good reminder: study counterintuitive math and economic results.

Here are 9 of them 🧵

The Birthday Paradox

In a room of 23 people, there's a >50% chance that 2 people share the same birthday.

This type of probabilistic thinking does *not* come naturally to many people.

The Coastline Paradox

Fractal geometry is also confounding:

The coastline of a landmass does not have a well-defined measurement. As the unit of measurement gets smaller (eg. from KMs to cm), the length increases without limit.

Winner's Curse

In an auction, the winning bid will usually exceed the intrinsic worth of an item leading to a significant overpay (and negative net profit for the winner).

Braess's Paradox

Removing an extra road can make everyone's commute time faster.

Why? The existence of a "fast" road leads to congestion because everyone uses it. If you remove the shortcut, traffic flows better.

Hello friends, I am back! I have been doing a ton of financial research and am very disturbed by what I have learned.

Please enjoy a long (irresponsibly LONG) story about central banking, manufactured crises, George Soros, and the Great Reset.

This thred will be much longer and more dry than my usual, pls bear with me. This one's legit important. The first portion will reference works by Dr. Richard Werner, and the latter George Soros.

Note my views are not indicative of those of people quoted. This post does not constitute investment counsel.

To understand current financial conditions you bare minimum have to go back to WWII. Bretton Woods has just been signed, establishing the IMF and World Bank, and the USD as standard for international settlement.

But we're not talking about US history (yet), we have to look at Japan. Unlike Germany, which had it's economy stripped down and sold off by the victorious Allies, Japan's system remained remarkably intact.

Introducing “Financial Service Centers.” The future of the new Financial Service Industry.

There is a need that the banking system has provided for all of society that cannot be eliminated within the new Quantum Financial System./1

The financial system is the glue that holds society together as we go about our commerce one with another. It is essential./2

As long as money is used to exchange goods and services, it is a service that must continue in some form, hopefully, better. Positioning ourselves to perform this service is essential./3

As the Zim Benefactors begin their humanitarian activities, a new Financial Service Industry will need to be created out of the demise of the banks. It is a major facet of society that few Zim Benefactors have given any thought to./4

The Financial Services Industry is just as important as putting food on the table and a roof over the heads of humanity if society is to be successful. Again, it is the glue or mortar, that keeps the bricks of society together./5

This is value investor, Allan Mecham.

He dropped out of college at age 22 to start his fund, Arlington Value.

From 2008-2016, they did a CAGR of 30% over 8.5 years!

And in his fund letters, he shared his best frameworks for investing in companies.

Here's a breakdown of each:

1. Adopt a mindset for longevity

He focuses on variables that affect a business' durability.

Stuff like valuation doesn't matter if the business quality is misjudged.

Since a company's value is determined by its future cash flows...

Hence evaluating its future is key

2. Stay within your circle of competence

Allan is aware that his CoC is tiny!

Thus, he rarely buys companies that he:

• Hasn't researched
• Hasn't followed for at least a few years.

Because the best way to study a business is to observe its execution overtime.

3. Embrace volatility as a gift

Public markets offer you amazing deals you will never get in the private markets!

It's all about being patient.

The underlying value of a business is much more stable than the stock.

So you can buy great businesses that are mispriced!

4. Avoid noise and news

More information can give you a false sense of confidence.

It can create an illusion of "knowledge", and make you think many things are important.

The key is to know what are the 3-5 main variables in the company, and focus on those.

Ignore the rest.