Stocks are not supposed to have over 100% short interest. Naked short selling is illegal. This set-up should never happen. Kudos to those who took advantage.
Irresistible to leave this moment alone - a thread to share some investment lessons:
1/ Size matters.
Melvin entered 2021 circa $12 billion in AUM and runs a highly levered balance sheet. That’s a lot of short exposure to move around if needed.
Stocks are not supposed to have over 100% short interest. Naked short selling is illegal. This set-up should never happen. Kudos to those who took advantage.
Keynes said “markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.” I suspect this won't take down any significant hedge fund, but it definitely hurts.
Academic finance teaches that “a short sale has unlimited downside and limited upside. Those events almost never play out, until they do.
On the short side, VW stock in 2008.
And on the long side (leveraged), CMBX in November 2008
Both traded to completely irrational levels for a time. True left tail events for those in the positions.
Peter Bernstein’s famous line about risk. A global pandemic leading to a soaring market? Negative interest rates? Online traders crushing monster hedge funds?
Beware those who think in certainties instead of probabilities. @AnnieDuke
We know the outcome of this with near certainty (99%+ probability). GME stock will fall back to a fundamental level when the weighing machine takes over from the voting machine. We have absolutely no idea when - a day, week, month, 5 years? No idea.
My understanding is that Gabe Plotkin is one of the very best investors (process, not outcome). I highly doubt #melvincapital missed much in advance. And yet, here we are. No rebates, volatility, untethered trading - shorting is brutal.
Melvin entered 2021 circa $12 billion in AUM and runs a highly levered balance sheet. That’s a lot of short exposure to move around if needed. And obviously, it's not alone in shorting stocks.
More from Finance
Inflation is coming, inflation is coming!
Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflation
It has been clear for several months that we are in the middle of a cyclical rise in
The full thread can be reviewed here:
Today's PPI report should have been expected to surprise to the upside as the leading indicators of inflation have been screaming to the upside for months!
Here is the ISM prices paid index, cumulated into a growth rate
3/
Industrial commodity prices have also seen a major acceleration for months.
4/
So today's PPI report was in line with the leads, suggesting that we have a cyclical upturn in inflation that is * primarily concentrated in the manufacturing sector *
This is a key point.
5/
Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflation
It has been clear for several months that we are in the middle of a cyclical rise in
Now, in the short-term, the manufacturing sector is red hot, driven by a pent-up demand rebound in goods consumption.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 4, 2021
Commodity prices are screaming which gives legs to "goods" inflation in the short-term.
8) pic.twitter.com/rQcqHf1OD0
The full thread can be reviewed here:
Consensus continues to conflate the inflation story, mixing and matching long-term and short-term charts to fit what is generally a secular inflation narrative.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 4, 2021
Here are my two cents to make the distinction clear.
1)
Today's PPI report should have been expected to surprise to the upside as the leading indicators of inflation have been screaming to the upside for months!
Here is the ISM prices paid index, cumulated into a growth rate
3/
Industrial commodity prices have also seen a major acceleration for months.
4/
So today's PPI report was in line with the leads, suggesting that we have a cyclical upturn in inflation that is * primarily concentrated in the manufacturing sector *
This is a key point.
5/
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I just finished Eric Adler's The Battle of the Classics, and wanted to say something about Joel Christiansen's review linked below. I am not sure what motivates the review (I speculate a bit below), but it gives a very misleading impression of the book. 1/x
The meat of the criticism is that the history Adler gives is insufficiently critical. Adler describes a few figures who had a great influence on how the modern US university was formed. It's certainly critical: it focuses on the social Darwinism of these figures. 2/x
Other insinuations and suggestions in the review seem wildly off the mark, distorted, or inappropriate-- for example, that the book is clickbaity (it is scholarly) or conservative (hardly) or connected to the events at the Capitol (give me a break). 3/x
The core question: in what sense is classics inherently racist? Classics is old. On Adler's account, it begins in ancient Rome and is revived in the Renaissance. Slavery (Christiansen's primary concern) is also very old. Let's say classics is an education for slaveowners. 4/x
It's worth remembering that literacy itself is elite throughout most of this history. Literacy is, then, also the education of slaveowners. We can honor oral and musical traditions without denying that literacy is, generally, good. 5/x
As someone\u2019s who\u2019s read the book, this review strikes me as tremendously unfair. It mostly faults Adler for not writing the book the reviewer wishes he had! https://t.co/pqpt5Ziivj
— Teresa M. Bejan (@tmbejan) January 12, 2021
The meat of the criticism is that the history Adler gives is insufficiently critical. Adler describes a few figures who had a great influence on how the modern US university was formed. It's certainly critical: it focuses on the social Darwinism of these figures. 2/x
Other insinuations and suggestions in the review seem wildly off the mark, distorted, or inappropriate-- for example, that the book is clickbaity (it is scholarly) or conservative (hardly) or connected to the events at the Capitol (give me a break). 3/x
The core question: in what sense is classics inherently racist? Classics is old. On Adler's account, it begins in ancient Rome and is revived in the Renaissance. Slavery (Christiansen's primary concern) is also very old. Let's say classics is an education for slaveowners. 4/x
It's worth remembering that literacy itself is elite throughout most of this history. Literacy is, then, also the education of slaveowners. We can honor oral and musical traditions without denying that literacy is, generally, good. 5/x
Nano Course On Python For Trading
==========================
Module 1
Python makes it very easy to analyze and visualize time series data when you’re a beginner. It's easier when you don't have to install python on your PC (that's why it's a nano course, you'll learn python...
... on the go). You will not be required to install python in your PC but you will be using an amazing python editor, Google Colab Visit https://t.co/EZt0agsdlV
This course is for anyone out there who is confused, frustrated, and just wants this python/finance thing to work!
In Module 1 of this Nano course, we will learn about :
# Using Google Colab
# Importing libraries
# Making a Random Time Series of Black Field Research Stock (fictional)
# Using Google Colab
Intro link is here on YT: https://t.co/MqMSDBaQri
Create a new Notebook at https://t.co/EZt0agsdlV and name it AnythingOfYourChoice.ipynb
You got your notebook ready and now the game is on!
You can add code in these cells and add as many cells as you want
# Importing Libraries
Imports are pretty standard, with a few exceptions.
For the most part, you can import your libraries by running the import.
Type this in the first cell you see. You need not worry about what each of these does, we will understand it later.
==========================
Module 1
Python makes it very easy to analyze and visualize time series data when you’re a beginner. It's easier when you don't have to install python on your PC (that's why it's a nano course, you'll learn python...
... on the go). You will not be required to install python in your PC but you will be using an amazing python editor, Google Colab Visit https://t.co/EZt0agsdlV
This course is for anyone out there who is confused, frustrated, and just wants this python/finance thing to work!
In Module 1 of this Nano course, we will learn about :
# Using Google Colab
# Importing libraries
# Making a Random Time Series of Black Field Research Stock (fictional)
# Using Google Colab
Intro link is here on YT: https://t.co/MqMSDBaQri
Create a new Notebook at https://t.co/EZt0agsdlV and name it AnythingOfYourChoice.ipynb
You got your notebook ready and now the game is on!
You can add code in these cells and add as many cells as you want
# Importing Libraries
Imports are pretty standard, with a few exceptions.
For the most part, you can import your libraries by running the import.
Type this in the first cell you see. You need not worry about what each of these does, we will understand it later.