1) FL absentees, early voting:

*Dems as expected ("souls to the polls Sunday") had a good day and FINALLY take the early walk-in vote lead by 6,100 votes.

Rs total: 1,151,593
Ds total: 1,092,547

Rs +59,046 combined lead. This is very good for this point in the campaign.

1) Raise your hand if you remember how the RINOs and neverTrumpers ridiculed us in 2015 when we supported Trump saying, "he fights!"

Remember how much abuse we took for that?

Guess what.

We now have Justice Kavanaugh largely because both Trump and K fought.

2) Trump had every opportunity to bail on Judge K. I'm sure he asked the Judge, "Do you want to keep going through this? Cuz I'll stand by you if you do."

3) Either of the Bushes, McTurd, Minion,ANY other leading R would have bailed on Judge K the first time Balless Edsel talked

3) Do you RINOs, you neverTrumpers get it yet?

It is ONLY because Trump "fights" that ANYTHING gets done--trade treaties, tax cuts, immigration control, denuking Korea.

You can't have Falstaff and have him thin. You can't have victories & play nice with Commies or DemoKKKrats

1) Voting in Cuyahoga County (OH's Manhattan for its blueishness) has dramatically increased.

2) Bad news right?

3) Er, no. "And increases are coming from Republicans and unaffiliated voters."

4) Now, we have to watch unaffiliated voters, but my OH guys--"The Accountant" and "Ohio Wan" developed a statistical model in 2016 that appears to be holding for assessing how Us will vote.

5) It's not bad for us at all.

6) So, here are the raw numbers:

Eighteen days out in 2018:
D 68,760 (44 %)
R 39,080 (25%)
Us 48,206 (30 %)
Total 156,251

2014:
D 75,675 (55 %)
Rs 33,964 (25 %)
•Us 26,854 (19 5)
Total 137,053

"Republicans appear energized" due to the Kavanaugh

1) https://t.co/ejQmeU5YIu

First the Hill/Cook, now this. Folks, they are aware they are losing or have already lost the House. The last big vote suppression push is on.

Yesterday, two NC polls basically put all the "at risk" NC seats out of reach.
Before that, TX and OH's vulnerable seats were pretty much off the board (Sessions is ahead but close).

NY now down to two vulnerable seats with the R leading in one. Both are red.

3) UNLIKE THE LIBS, I will tell you . . .

I.
Can.
Be.
Wrong.

But I'm not seeing a DemoKKKrat takeover of the House. At most I have them with 19 flips---but that is really stretching it and that's them running the table.

4) Meanwhile, we had news of a D-R potential flip in AZ1, where Wendy Rogers has gotten out to a surprising lead.

This goes along with the expected two flips from MN. There are at least two others out there, possibly three.

5) Meanwhile, in the world of real voting, in blue Montgomery Co., OH we have the following in absentee balloting: R=11,041, D=7,087, I/U=12,609

Well, you say, all those indies may vote D.

They didn't in 2016. Based on 2016 votes and voting history of EVERY SINGLE HOUSE . . .

1) 538 walks it back:
Right now, in fact, the polls are not showing a Democratic turnout advantage. Instead, based on a comparison of likely-voter and registered-voter polls, they’re projecting roughly equal turnout between the parties,

2) with Republicans’ demographic advantages (older, whiter voters typically vote at higher rates at the midterms) counteracting Democrats’ seemingly higher enthusiasm.”

3) Give little Natey a week and he'll see what we see: An R turnout advantage.

Alex Barros-Curtis run both Smith’s campaign in 2016 and Starmer's in 2020. He is Keir's new ultimate enforcer but who hacked, data scrapped and purged? Is Keir's position as LOTO truly legitimate?. Did he cheat?. Thread. #StarmerOut #LabourLeaks

Novara Media revealed that a leading figure in Kier Starmer's campaign had extensive links to Owen Smith's leadership bid in 2016. When asked if others from the Smith campaign were also involved in Starmer’s leadership Keir's office did not respond #LabourLeaks #Pfizer #Pharma

Keir had a campaign website, the controller for this DATA, according to the site itself, is a company called Movement for Another Future Limited. Alexandre Samuel Barros-Curtis is the sole director of Movement for Another Future Limited. Alex controls the DATA. #LabourLeaks

According to his LinkedIn profile, Barros-Curtis’s day job is as a consultant solicitor “Providing specialised legal advice in the area of derivatives and structured finance” in particular “Hedging, project financings, securitisations, credit derivatives” #LabourLeaks #HedgeFund

He has worked extensively on derivatives and structured finance matters in Europe and Hong Kong; as well as formerly working for the Clinton Foundation. Asked to comment on Mr Barros-Curtis and his role in the party Labour said they do not discuss staffing issues. #LabourLeaks

1. Juan O’Savin for verifying this. “Plane crashes are targeted kills.”

Here is a brief summary for those who may not be familiar with Kennedy History:

For my followers who aren't experts on middle eastern politics, here's a summary and explanation of all that stuff I've been tweeting about for the last few days - Turkey, Gare, all that stuff.

Gare is a mountain in the autonomous region of Kurdistan, in Northern Iraq (also known as Başur, or South Kurdistan). It's held by the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), a formerly Maoist group who share an ideology with the YPG. They're pretty great.

Last week the Turkish Army launched an operation in the area, bombarding it with planes and dropping troops from helicopters. They're a long way from home here, and had to rely on the bases of local collaborators to launch the attack.

The initial assault appears to have gone badly, with Turkish troops forced to retreat some way down the mountain. A second front, seemingly aimed at preventing PKK reinforcements from arriving, may have been more successful.

The full aim of the operation isn't clear. They may have hoped to cut Gare from other nearby mountains, and they may have been trying to destroy specific facilities. The only thing we're sure of is that an attempt was made to free a group of high value POWs.

The death of Alhaji Lateef Kayode Jakande brings to my mind the triumph of excellence in political leadership as well as rebellion against the political order.

A lot has been said about LKJ since he died yesterday and I hope only to contribute my perspective to enrich all said.

My emphasis with history has always been to draw out lessons relevant to the present, to show how trends repeat themselves and to show certain hypocritical contradictions within the present system.

Only few others qualify as well as LKJ to do all the three - I hope I do justice.

One area pundits have largely missed out in the Jakande story is the very beginning - both of his life and of his politics.

LKJ's parents were from Omu-Aran in present day Kwara State but he contributed more to Lagos than so many others - we will return to this subsequently.

LKJ was not originally a political ally of Awolowo - a number of elders were with Awo right from the very beginning but LKJ contributed politically to Awolowo at a crucial time of religious threat to the dominance of the Action Group (Awo's party) in the pre-Independence mid 50s.

A group had been formed in 1957 and named the National Muslim League headed by Alhaji R.A. Smith who had been very critical of Awolowo's AG as a Christian party and moved to align with the Northern People's Congress of Sir Ahmadu Bello.

The political threat to Awo was very real.