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Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart 6 years, 8 months ago 1928 views

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1) FL absentees, early voting:

*Dems as expected ("souls to the polls Sunday") had a good day and FINALLY take the early walk-in vote lead by 6,100 votes.

Rs total: 1,151,593
Ds total: 1,092,547

Rs +59,046 combined lead. This is very good for this point in the campaign.

2) At this point in 2016, Rs only led by 40,000. I could be mistaken but I think yesterday was the last day polls were open on Sunday, so the final "souls to the polls" Sunday.

3) As of yesterday, four red counties were yet to report. That would likely boost the lead back to 70k

4) I don't think the FL Rs in their wildest dreams expected to lead this late in the campaign.

5) Likewise in NV:
Clark (with its union "encouragement" for members turned out big yesterday and added net 6,000 voters.

However---big however---neither Washoe nor the rurals . . .

(5) contd. . . were open yesterday. My guesstimate is that would slice that number in half.

While this helped, the NV Ds are still looking at a significant--to potentially massive--shortfall from their 2016 numbers coming out of early voting.

6) Gotta make sure you compare days to days. Calendars and voting days differ.

7) But whether the "equivalent" day is 40k or 16k, Republicans are doing fantastically well when you consider we do not know how many red votes are outstanding . . . and they are red votes.

8) Again, I think before it's all over the hurricane only reduces overall Panhandle . . .

8) contd. . . votes by as few as 2,000, with new polling stations being set up all across the Panhandle by Gov. Scott.

9) Will have OH news later today, probably MN news tomorrow.

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Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) Voting in Cuyahoga County (OH's Manhattan for its blueishness) has dramatically increased.

2) Bad news right?

3) Er, no. "And increases are coming from Republicans and unaffiliated voters."

4) Now, we have to watch unaffiliated voters, but my OH guys--"The Accountant" and "Ohio Wan" developed a statistical model in 2016 that appears to be holding for assessing how Us will vote.

5) It's not bad for us at all.

6) So, here are the raw numbers:

Eighteen days out in 2018:
D 68,760 (44 %)
R 39,080 (25%)
Us 48,206 (30 %)
Total 156,251

2014:
D 75,675 (55 %)
Rs 33,964 (25 %)
•Us 26,854 (19 5)
Total 137,053

"Republicans appear energized" due to the Kavanaugh

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) A little story about "exit polls."

2) The year was 2004. Kerry was supposedly leading W.

3) I was active in a key precinct in Dayton, OH, a true bellwether for ALL of OH.

4) Rs knew if their voters turned out (due to R registration edge) W would win.

5) I was assigned to do "poll flushing." This is when you go to the precinct at 10:00 am and 4:00 pm and check off all the Republicans who had voted.

Then callers will get on the phone to those who haven't yet voted & try to get them out.

6) The first poll flushing was normal and expected #s.

7) I went home and hear Rush going on and on about the exit polling showing a Kerry win.

8) Some of the conservative websites were melting down. "It's over!"

9) Drudge was going crazy with "exit polls" showing a BIG Kerry win, especially in OH which he had to have to win.

10) A little puzzled, I did my 4:00 flushing. Fully 90% of all Republicans had ALREADY VOTED . . . with three hours to go!

11) Remember, if our voters turned out, nothing Lurch could do. We had the #s.

12) I got back home, went on the boards and told people to cool down, that W would win OH and thereby the election. (He was up in FL, unlike 2000).

13) Sure enough, the exit polls were ALL wrong.

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Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) All of us are disgusted & fed up with the Republican Party (except a few perpetual grifters in DC).

2) There are calls for a new "Patriot" or "MAGA" Party. I get it. Good intentions. But there are structural reasons why a new party will fail & why we have to take over the GOP

3) When I say "structural" some people gloss over that as if it's unimportant.

It's fundamental. You don't build a house on a bad foundation. If you set up a commerce site, you have a structure as to how you take payments.

You may wish you could go outside that structure . . .

3) contd . . . but if you want your money, you have to either work in the structure or completely obliterate the site. You can't have two competing sites for your money.

4) Likewise if you want to get in your house, you may have 20 keys, but the car key usually won't let you in

5) The structural basis of parties is unchangeable. It was set in the 1820s by Martin Van Buren as a way to protect slavery with the DemoKKKrat Party. But it's also embedded in the Constitution with the "winner take all/single member district" system of representation.

6) This has resulted in a 200-year-old system that is set in place. First, Van Buren, to get people to support a party that would protect slavery, had to reward them with something big.

Jobs.

He created the "spoils system" of rewarding loyalists with party & gubment jobs.

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

@Garrett_Archer Let me suggest something, in love.

Earlier, you said and I agreed with you, that the Trump side should be looking to poke holes in their case. It would only make it stronger. I wanted you to be a part of the hearings here.

Now, I think you need to do the same.

I'd like to see you approach the state's case--that there's no fraud--with the ferver of a full Tumper.

Earlier you admitted that, yes, if 35,000 votes were programmed as a baseline in Pima, it would be possible if 35,000 paper ballots were inserted there.

That wouldn't . . .

be hard to do. In fact, while I agree with you that it would be almost impossible to do it statewide, it would NOT be impossible to do it in several select locations. When a few thousand votes decide an election, this would do it.

So I challenge you to start again.

Start with the eyes of someone who sees fraud (cuz is sure as HELL looks that way). For example, pollsters are wrong. But Richard Baris is rarely wrong. When he misses, it's by a half a point.

His AZ poll was "off" by over 4. Maybe he just erred. Maybe not.

Give it a try.

Show everyone that indeed you ARE the AZ Data Guru and mount the most substantive case you can for fraud before you set to knocking it down.

I think both sides should be represented before the full AZ legislature, under oath, questioned by both sides (NOT ACCUSED but questioned)

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) You have to be a little vain to be on Twit & think your opinion matters to others. That's ok.

2) Personally, I'm honored & flattered that even 10 of you would follow me, let alone the number who do.

3) So, with that in mind, it's been said that there is the "Evil Party & the Stupid Party."

4) Increasingly, I think that's wrong.

5) There is definitely the Evil Party, the DemoKKKrats. What I think we overlook is that they know their evil & just don't care.

6) But I don't think you get where Yertle, Tom Collins, Minion & some of the others in the GOP are by being stupid.

7) I think they are vain to the radical extreme.

8) They are the Vain Party, who really believe that 74m people voted for "them" in November; who really . . .

8) contd . . . believe that "they know what's best" & their pucksnorter consultants are intelligent & skilled.

They really believe we do NOT matter because they are so much smarter. We just "don't get it." We don't see "how the game is played."

9) Here is the important part: this vanity comes from believing they are morally superior to everyone. That they can "lose gracefully" because people will appreciate how moral & upstanding they are & credit them.

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Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson

(MAJOR NOTE) The reason Manafort took over Trump's campaign in just 3 weeks despite being hired as a mere delegate counter is that ROGER STONE initiated a whisper campaign against Corey Lewandowski. That campaign started...days after Manafort returned from meeting with WikiLeaks.

2/ Stone and Manafort are longtime business partners; we'd expect Manafort to tell Stone what Assange told him, and for him to expect Stone to then pressure the campaign not only to hire him but quickly elevate him.

And who was Stone in touch with at the campaign? Trump himself.

3/ I bet you Manafort's late March emails are very interesting and that some of them are to/from his longtime business associate Roger Stone. And I bet Roger Stone's late March phone calls are very interesting and that some of them are to/from his longtime friend Donald Trump.

4/ At the end of March 2016, Trump suddenly convenes a NatSec meeting. At that meeting he directs his NatSec team to change the RNC platform in July to benefit Putin. Who later takes credit for that change?

Paul Manafort's business associate, Kremlin agent Konstantin Kilimnick.

5/ Why did Donald Trump suddenly convene a NatSec meeting 3 days after he finally hired Manafort? Why did he issue a pro-Kremlin directive at that meeting that Manafort's camp would later take credit for? What did Manafort tell Trump in the days leading up to that NatSec meeting?

Cory Doctorow #BLM
@doctorow

The Democrats are at least two parties. The progressive wing of the party (which is by no means unified) and the finance wing of the party, which is also the party leadership.

1/

During the leadership race, the progressive wing was represented by @SenSanders and @SenWarren; the former wants to minimize the role of markets in our lives, the latter wants to redeem markets by regulating them. It's a distinction with a difference, but I donated to both.

2/

Both wings of the party have prominent representatives in Congress; Sandersism are most visibly associated with @AOC (whom I donated to) and Warrenism is embodied by @RepKatiePorter (likewise), who was also one of Warren's law school proteges.

3/

Porter is a force of nature. She is infamous - and celebrated - for her brutal, no-holds-barred questioning of both corporate and administration witnesses, using a white-board to pin them down and eviscerating any attempts at bullshittery.

4/

This isn't just about getting facts into the record (though, she is SO GOOD at getting facts into the record!), it's also about effecting change, like when she single-handedly cornered the CDC's chief into guaranteeing universal, free covid

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Patrick Byrne
@PatrickByrne

READ AND RETWEET AS THOUGH THE LIFE OF YOUR NATION DEPENDS ON IT. WHICH IT DOES. Citizens, I am going to add to the picture with more information. I am not going to let this pass while keeping information to myself. I am going to walk you through 2 narratives.

A printing shop in Michigan prints ballots for Delaware County, Pennsylvania and as Lancashire County, Pennsylvania (this is normal). But along with the ballots it prints on contract and delivers to those counties, it prints some ballots that get diverted to Bethpage, New York.

There, a boiler room of folks fill in "Biden" (often without even voting downballot). The ballots (which are forensically legitimate, given that they come from the same print shop as the good ballots, ) then get trucked into Pennsylvania and mailed. Hundreds of thousands.

We have all of that documented. Texts, statements, affidavits, everything.

We also know that this same ballot printing company (and other firms in the same family) also print for Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia.

Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson

(THREAD) The main problem with that @DanDrezner piece in the Post is that it's an international politics prof writing about the field in which I'm a professor—communications. No one in communications would *ever* compare the blogosphere to either Twitter or Substack. Here's why.

1/ Back in the mid-aughts, I was a Koufax Award-nominated political blogger (I don't know what Drezner was doing then; I first heard of him about a year ago). So I was into the blogosphere pretty deep, as I also ran a second high-traffic blog that was focused on the art world.

2/ The "blogosphere" was an outgrowth of MySpace and LiveJournal, inasmuch as in the heady early days of the internet people suddenly realized that they could engage in private diaristic writing—a very specific subgenre of writing—in the public square, and it was suddenly "okay."

3/ So the blogosphere as such had *nothing* to do with journalism, which needless to say was in a different state just 15 years ago (note: unlike Drezner, I also teach writing and journalism at the university level, so this thread is squarely "in my area," unlike his Post piece).

4/ The blogosphere was a manifestation of the transformation of the public-private binary at the dawn of the internet—and *also* connected to the "creative writing" explosion (what I did a PhD on); in the aughts, creative writing was the fastest-growing discipline *in the world*.

Bill Grueskin
@BGrueskin

I'm not a lawyer, but I think this lawyer might not be doing a good job today of being a lawyer

"When you're driving down the street and you look over at your wife and you say, 'hey you know what, that guy is about to drive through the red light and kill that person...'"

"Senators of the United States... they're not ordinary people. They're extraordinary people in the technical sense of extraordinary people."

WHERE IS HE GOING WITH THIS?

This is what you get when your lawyer realizes he isn't getting paid upfront.

IS THE CAT LAWYER AVAILABLE

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HELLO: If you pee and every time you finish, your urine looks like this picture, you may have a serious medical illness.

Foamy urine especially if it is persistent and noticeable over time may mean you have a serious kidney problem.

Let’s talk about this today...
RT for others.

What are the features of a normal urine?

A normal urine should have a light yellow colour, painless, odourless (or faint smell), steady stream and should ideally not foam when you pee.

When there’s something wrong, then you see changes in all the above normal features of urine.

For instance if urine becomes very deep yellow, it may mean you are dehydrated;

If urine becomes painful or smells really really bad, it may mean you have an infection;

If urine has a poor stream, especially in a man, it may mean a prostate problem like cancer.

Do you get me?

So today let’s talk about Foamy Urine.

What are the things that can cause urine to suddenly be foamy. As I said in the first tweet, it MAY mean a serious medical illness like a serious kidney problem.

First things first- it does NOT always mean a problem but it may as well.

Now what are the causes of Foamy Urine:

1. SPEED-
If you pee really fast or with a lot of force, it may make your urine more foamy than usual. The speed and force makes the urine generate a lot of bubbles which tend to almost quickly disappear as it is formed in the toilet bowl.

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David Neiwert
@DavidNeiwert

1) “Eliminationism” is a term you need not just to become familiar with, especially in today’s American rush toward authoritarianism. This will be a long, illustrated thread explaining what it means, how it works, and why Donald Trump is now our Eliminationist in Chief.

Warning: Some images contain violence and are disturbing.

Also warning: This thread is ridiculously long. 75 tweets is insane. I apologize. But this stuff is important. I hope you find it compelling anyway. If not, I understand.

2) So, what exactly do we mean by “eliminationism”? Here’s the academic definition:

3) It was largely coined by Holocaust scholar Daniel Jonah Goldhagen in his 1996 book Hitler’s Willing Executioners, about the role ordinary Germans played in the Holocaust, which he described as fueled by “eliminationist antisemitism.”

4) The book describes how in reality the largest numbers of Jews and other victims killed by Nazi directive were rounded up and gunned down or immolated en masse and buried in mass graves by ordinary Germans and non-Jewish residents of German-occupied territories.

Shalini Singh Sengar
@Maverickmusafir

Remembering Colonel Anil Kaul, VrC (Retd) on his 3rd Death Anniversary.

“It was October 12, 1987, exactly 5:55 pm as I was… coming out of the cupola of my T-72 tank on a steamy evening in an unknown place called Kokkuvil in the Jaffna district of Northern Sri Lanka.+

I froze in that confined space at what I saw. An LTTE militant stood at 60 meters aiming his rocket-propelled gun at my tank.

In a flash he fired. Probably having lost his nerve he aimed too low. The projectile hit the left mudguard of the tank, but for some inexplicable reason+

did not explode. It then hit the side of the main gun and then exploded on top of the turret, all in a fraction of a second. Before I knew, it seemed I had received a straight right punch so to say to my chin. I saw some blood appear on my left hand and there was a sharp drop in+

my eyesight.

Lt Colonel (now Lt Gen) Dalbir Singh, then Commanding Officer of 10 Para Commando, who was standing on the engine deck said to me, “Yaar what a close shave.”

He suddenly saw me and the look on his face told me that something was very very wrong with me. In that+

fraction of a second, as if it was a rewind of my entire life, thoughts raced through my life as to how and when I had landed myself in such a situation…

I asked my gunner to pull out a first field dressing (FFD) which is standard equipment in a first aid box carried in each+

Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5

Krishna and the False Vasudeva
#story

Paundraka Vasudeva was a King mentioned in Bhagavatha Purana. He was friend of Jarasandha, the king of Magadha. He believed that he is Vasudeva Krishna.
Once Paundraka Vasudeva received a letter from Shishupala, stating that he wanted

protection from Krishna, because it was Rukmini's wedding and Shishupala thought Krishna would take away Rukmini.

Paundraka Vasudeva agreed and went to Vidarbha, the Kingdom of Shishupala, but failed to provide protection as Krishna took Rukmini away. Paundraka Vasudeva was

feeling sad. His Minister's cheered him.
They said that Paundraka Vasudeva was the real Vasudeva and Krishna is a cheater. Everyone started to believe this and soon Paundraka Vasudeva soon started to taunt Krishna by saying that Krishna was a cheater.
Paundraka Vasudeva then

challenged Krishna to a war and Krishna said that he would give Paundraka his Chakra and Gadha. Paundraka suspected some foul play and went to King of Kashi for his protection. In battlefield, Krishna came in front of Paundraka, and said that he would throw his Chakra and Gadha

to him. But, Krishna's throw was perfect that the Gadha hurled him to the Ground and the Chakra killed him.
Krishna soon killed king of Kashi with an arrow and his head went flying to Kashi.
Thus Victorious Krishna was recieved by people of Dwaraka.
Hare Krishna 🙏🕉🙏