On Jan 6, 2021, the always stellar Mr @deepakshenoy tweeted, this:
https://t.co/fa3GX9VnW0
Innocuous 1 sentence, but its a full economic theory at play.
Let me break it down for you. (1/n)
91 day TBills at 3.03%. Interest rates are even lower than RBI has them.
— Deepak Shenoy (@deepakshenoy) January 6, 2021
In essence, if RBI opts and continues to manage exchange rate, then that is "fiddling with the exchange rate"
RBI has done that in the past and has restarted it in 2020 - very explicitly. (3/n)
Implying INR will be bought from the open markets in order to prevent INR from falling vis a vis USD (4/n)
https://t.co/9kpWP7ovyM

Which is what the subject of my Sept 2020 essay with @CFASocietyIndia was. (6/n)
This:
Consider three legs of a stool of an economy-
a. Ability of Dollar to flow in when excess in global economy
b. Fixed Exchange Rate
c. Ability to set interest rates (7/n)

You can choose any 2 of the 3 legs.
Choose : controlled interest rate (and hence low inflation) and fixed INR/USD rate, you cannot have an open economy.
Which India was till 1992. (8/n)
INR will fluctuate around.
Which India has adopted in the recent years. (9/n)
Many famous currency bets were made because central banks sought to ignore this theory. (10/n)
Because RBI has chosen to have a 'fixed exchange rate' (or at least as fixed as markets would allow) and an open economy, it is losing its influence on setting the interest rates in the market (12/n)
More from Economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is analyzing damage due to COVID and projecting further severe consequences if current policies persist. They state “despite involving short term economic costs, lockdowns may lead to faster economic recovery by containing the virus”
1/
Note: This report doesn’t do a dynamic analysis that makes things much clearer, but it does a thoughtful statistical analysis based upon increasingly available data.
https://t.co/5Xmt8y7lCL
A few more quotes:
2/
“The analysis also finds that lockdowns are powerful instruments to reduce infections, especially when they are introduced early in a country’s epidemic and when they are sufficiently stringent.”
3/
“lockdowns become progressively more effective in reducing COVID-19 cases when they become sufficiently stringent. Mild lockdowns appear instead ineffective at curbing infections.”
4/
“The results suggest that to achieve a given reduction in infections, policymakers may want to opt for stringent lockdowns over a shorter period rather than prolonged mild lockdowns...
5/
1/

Note: This report doesn’t do a dynamic analysis that makes things much clearer, but it does a thoughtful statistical analysis based upon increasingly available data.
https://t.co/5Xmt8y7lCL
A few more quotes:
2/

“The analysis also finds that lockdowns are powerful instruments to reduce infections, especially when they are introduced early in a country’s epidemic and when they are sufficiently stringent.”
3/

“lockdowns become progressively more effective in reducing COVID-19 cases when they become sufficiently stringent. Mild lockdowns appear instead ineffective at curbing infections.”
4/
“The results suggest that to achieve a given reduction in infections, policymakers may want to opt for stringent lockdowns over a shorter period rather than prolonged mild lockdowns...
5/
What do a Tory Peer, Selwyn Gummer (Lord Chadlington), David Sumner ( Sumner Group Holdings) and the Sanchez Perez family (drugs money, laundered through Gold mines) have in common?
It’s another company-saving a £50 million PPE contract shaggy dog story
Connections, connections
What a start to the story
“A bulletproof truck trundled down the road in downtown Lima, guarded by 18 policeman
They were wearing body armour & wielding high velocity rifles
No-one was taking any chances
This was a Special delivery for Peruvian Prosecutor for an anti drug trial
That was in 2011, the same year that Lord Chadlington’s daughter got married in Chadlington to Henry Allsopp.
Who was there?
Yes Kirstie Allsopp of Location, location, location and all this Covid nonsense fame) is his sister
Camilla, his Godmother
Jeremy Hunt
Cameron
Well. Come on. Lord Chadlington had been chair of the local Witney Conservative Association. It’s only fair.
Hang on. Julian Wheatland, Director of SCL Group/ Cambridge Analytica had also been chair of Witney Conservative Association...and campaigned for his mate Cameron
Are we sure Julian Wheatland and his side kick Alexander Nix were not there too @JolyonMaugham ?
I mean. They move in the same North Oxford circles.
It’s another company-saving a £50 million PPE contract shaggy dog story
Connections, connections
The *staggering* tale of a Tory Peer and a \xa350m PPE contract. https://t.co/SH2qxOmfQ4
— Jo Maugham (@JolyonMaugham) December 10, 2020
What a start to the story
“A bulletproof truck trundled down the road in downtown Lima, guarded by 18 policeman
They were wearing body armour & wielding high velocity rifles
No-one was taking any chances
This was a Special delivery for Peruvian Prosecutor for an anti drug trial

That was in 2011, the same year that Lord Chadlington’s daughter got married in Chadlington to Henry Allsopp.
Who was there?
Yes Kirstie Allsopp of Location, location, location and all this Covid nonsense fame) is his sister
Camilla, his Godmother
Jeremy Hunt
Cameron

Well. Come on. Lord Chadlington had been chair of the local Witney Conservative Association. It’s only fair.
Hang on. Julian Wheatland, Director of SCL Group/ Cambridge Analytica had also been chair of Witney Conservative Association...and campaigned for his mate Cameron
Are we sure Julian Wheatland and his side kick Alexander Nix were not there too @JolyonMaugham ?
I mean. They move in the same North Oxford circles.
Does raising the minimum wage reduce the number of low-wage jobs?
No.
"We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages."
https://t.co/vlgagEHeyy
Minimum wage increases reduce crime.
https://t.co/1G1clXqF9t
When you increase the minimum wage, you decrease infant mortality among poor families.
https://t.co/iwW1FDsLYG
Increasing the minimum wage improves kids' health.
https://t.co/66DLHERpOJ
The minimum wage reduces racial income inequality.
https://t.co/wkn9Ajotlx
No.
"We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages."
https://t.co/vlgagEHeyy

Minimum wage increases reduce crime.
https://t.co/1G1clXqF9t

When you increase the minimum wage, you decrease infant mortality among poor families.
https://t.co/iwW1FDsLYG

Increasing the minimum wage improves kids' health.
https://t.co/66DLHERpOJ

The minimum wage reduces racial income inequality.
https://t.co/wkn9Ajotlx

You May Also Like
✨📱 iOS 12.1 📱✨
🗓 Release date: October 30, 2018
📝 New Emojis: 158
https://t.co/bx8XjhiCiB
New in iOS 12.1: 🥰 Smiling Face With 3 Hearts https://t.co/6eajdvueip
New in iOS 12.1: 🥵 Hot Face https://t.co/jhTv1elltB
New in iOS 12.1: 🥶 Cold Face https://t.co/EIjyl6yZrF
New in iOS 12.1: 🥳 Partying Face https://t.co/p8FDNEQ3LJ
🗓 Release date: October 30, 2018
📝 New Emojis: 158
https://t.co/bx8XjhiCiB

New in iOS 12.1: 🥰 Smiling Face With 3 Hearts https://t.co/6eajdvueip

New in iOS 12.1: 🥵 Hot Face https://t.co/jhTv1elltB

New in iOS 12.1: 🥶 Cold Face https://t.co/EIjyl6yZrF

New in iOS 12.1: 🥳 Partying Face https://t.co/p8FDNEQ3LJ
