#WealthOfNations I.ii is all about the secret sauce origin story: why does the division of labor happen in the first place? #AdamSmith illustrates (in part) with doggos to hold our attention. (I.ii.2,5) 🐶 #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets #DoggosDontTrade

Divsion of labor, Smith said yesterday, is responsible for a whole heckuva lot. But who thought of it? Nobody! It's "not originally the effect of any human wisdom, which foresees and intends that general opulence to which it gives occasion." (I.ii.1) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
There's no mastermind behind economic exchange, our "propensity to truck, barter, and exchange one thing for another" (I.ii.1) arises out of our natural tendency to persuade one another and better our condition. #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
Yeah, there's a lot in that first paragraph. #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
You know what's coming, right? 🍖🍻🍞 Butchers, brewers, bakers: they don't make us things because they love us. They're not our moms. (I.ii.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
Instead, we persuade them (with money! 💰💰💰) that it's best for them to provide what we want. Everybody wins! (I.ii.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
This may sound cynical, but this kind of cooperation is all we've got, says Smith. The world's not made of moms. We have to connect to others by division of labor. (I.ii.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
In "civilized"—economically developed—society, we can't be atomistic. Development only happens with division of labor, and division of labor puts us "at all times in need of the co-operation and assistance of great multitudes." (I.ii.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
Of course, our interdependence means that we each hold a kind of power over each other. That leaves us vulnerable if the system collapses. So we'd better hope that the market system is heckin' robust. (I.ii.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
We are so dependent on one another and our ability to persuade each other to help us through the market, rather than through personal appeals, that even a beggar can't rely entirely on the kindness of others. (I.ii.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets #WeAreAllConnected
Beggars might depend on the kindness of strangers to get money, but then they have to spend it to get the things they need. They use the market, just like the rest of us. (I.ii.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
OK, apparently the second paragraph is a doozey, too. (I.ii.2) That's just how this book rolls. #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
All well and good, you're probably thinking by now, but I was promised dogs. WHERE ARE THE DOGS? Well, they're not trading with each other, we can tell you that much. 🐶🙅‍♀️💰 (I.ii.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets #DoggosDontTrade
This matters a lot! Dogs can make frens at the park, but otherwise they are useless to each other, no matter how different their skills are. But people are more useful to each other the more different we become! (I.ii.5) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets #DoggosDontTrade
Here's Smith at his best: What makes us different from each other? Basically, the division of labor. Not our family, our wealth, our nation, or our power. We're born equal, and our habits, customs, and education determine where we end up. (I.ii.4) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
So markets and the division of labor emerge because we get good at stuff and help each other out. Division of labor makes us more different from one another. Markets make those differences the basis for cooperation. (I.ii.1–5) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
Tomorrow, one of @Econtalker 's favorite sections of #WealthOfNations. Stay tuned, Smithketeers! We'll see you then!

More from @AdamSmithWorks

OK. Chapter 7 of Book 4 of #WealthOfNations is tough going. It's long. It's serious. It's all about colonies.

We can take comfort, though, in knowing that the chapter #AdamSmith says is about colonies is, in fact, about colonies. (IV.vii) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets


Colonies were a vexed subject when #AdamSmith was writing, and they’re even more complicated now. So, before we even get to the tweeting, here’s a link to that thread on Smith and “savage nations.” (IV.vii) #WealthOfTweets


The reason for the ancient Greeks and Romans to settle colonies was straightforward: they didn’t have enough space for their growing populations. Their colonies were treated as “emancipated children”—connected but independent. (IV.vii.a.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

(Both these things are in contrast to the European colonies, as we'll see.) (IV.vii.a.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Ancient Greeks and Romans needed more space because the land was owned by an increasingly small number of citizens and farming and nearly all trades and arts were performed by slaves. It was hard for a poor freeman to improve his life. (IV.vii.a.3) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

More from Economy

On Jan 6, 2021, the always stellar Mr @deepakshenoy tweeted, this:

https://t.co/fa3GX9VnW0

Innocuous 1 sentence, but its a full economic theory at play.
Let me break it down for you. (1/n)


On September 30, 2020, I wrote an article for @CFASocietyIndia where I explained that RBI is all set to lose its ability to set interest rates if it continues to fiddle with the exchange rate (2/n)

What do I mean, "fiddle with the exchange rate"?

In essence, if RBI opts and continues to manage exchange rate, then that is "fiddling with the exchange rate"

RBI has done that in the past and has restarted it in 2020 - very explicitly. (3/n)

First in March 2020, it opened a Dollar/INR swap of $2B with far leg to be unwound in September 2020.

Implying INR will be bought from the open markets in order to prevent INR from falling vis a vis USD (4/n)

The Second aspect is now, that dollar inflow is happening, and the forex reserves swelled -> implying the rupee is appreciating, RBI again intervened from September, by selling INR in spot markets. (5/n)
https://t.co/9kpWP7ovyM
1/ Trend Factor: Any Economic Gains from Using Information over Investment Horizons? (Han, Zhou, Zhu)

"A trend factor using multiple time lengths outperforms ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal, which are based on the three price trends separately."

https://t.co/udkvsdw2Lz


2/ This resembles combining multiple measures of ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal (forecasts determined by walking forward rather than using signs from the full sample).

Unlike normal moving average signals, these are *cross-sectional.* More below:
https://t.co/wkIFLg9jtK


3/ Unsurprisingly, the Trend factor formed by this approach outperforms benchmarks in terms of both Sharpe ratio and tail metrics. It's combining momentum with two factors that are negatively correlated to it AND using multiple specifications.

More here:
https://t.co/x8Tloz3iyL


4/ "Average return and volatility of the trend factor are both higher in recession periods. However, the Sharpe ratio is virtually the same.

"Interestingly, all of the factors still have positive average returns.

"Momentum experiences the greatest increase in volatility."


5/ "In terms of maximum drawdown and the Calmar ratio, the trend factor performs the best.

"The trend factor is correlated with the short-term reversal factor (35%), long-term reversal factor (14%), and the market (20%) but is virtually uncorrelated with the momentum factor."

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