A product which provides a fixed income which is better than FD & an upside like equity.

Should you invest in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)?
A Thread 🧵👇

1/ REITs are a vehicle to invest in income-producing real estate properties managed by professionals.
2/ In India, we have REITs primarily focused on commercial real estate properties having 7-9% rental yields.

In listed REITs, Most of the completed properties are pre-leased to big companies.

Why no residential? As yields of 1-3% make them unattractive to investors.
3/ How do you get the benefit of such yield?

REITs have to distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to their shareholders.

Both listed REITs trade at 6-7% dividend yield (which is also tax-free)
4/ Moreover, 80% of their total value must come from completed & income-generating properties + it must avoid speculative land acquisitions.

What about debt then? There's a restriction there too.
Not more than 49% of the total equity.
5/ Looking interesting, right?

REITs are traded on the exchange (like stocks). Yes, Instant liquidity in a very illiquid product (Bulky Commercial Real Estate)

An investor can take part by buying 200 units at a time (60-70k rupees)
6/ let’s talk tax.

Under the current structure, Dividends remain tax-free (6-7% yields vs pre-tax FD yield of 5%)

On capital gains, while selling your units:

STCG of 15% on gains (if sold in less than 3 years)
LTCG of 10% on gains (if sold after 3 years)
7/ what makes us optimistic?

US REITs have 5 decades of history behind them & they have continued to outperform the broader equity markets

Interesting fact: US has 194 listed REITs with a combined market cap of $1.3Trillion
8/ Interestingly, Rents of both the listed REITs are at a 30-40% discount compared to the current market rents.

This leaves an upside potential once contracts expire.

Moreover, REITs have contractual escalations of 10-15% every 3-5 years.
9/ This is getting a bit complex, Let's talk about an alternative?

Directly buying RE? Get ready for 👇

- Huge Ticket Size (vs limited capital)
- Hassle of managing operational cost
- No valid data source
- Illiquid investment with high transaction costs
10/ Convinced already, things that must be tracked:

- Committed Occupancy & collections efficiency (higher the better)
- Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE)
- Sector Concentration (lesser the better) & Quality of tenants
- Healthy Balance Sheet
- Upcoming portfolio
11/ Will WFH kill the Commercial Real Estate business?

No (in the context of India)

- Rents are a fraction of global rents
- Indian Outsourcing is a big opportunity given the resilience & performance in COVID
- Young Population needs direction via physical interactions.
12/ Due to the hits from Demonetisation, RERA, GST, IL&FS crisis & COVID-19

Commercial RE supply is hit, especially for Single Building Projects, Speculative construction, Strata Title assets

Most are facing a cash crunch

Great for future rent scenario, if demand increases
13/ Risks with Investing in REITs

- Slowdown in Commercial RE (follow vacancies)
- Oversupply: Renegotiation at lower rates
- Concentration risks (tenant & location wise)
- Difference b/w REIT yield & FD rate
- Broader stock market movements will have an impact on unit price
14/ 2 REITs are already listed & 3-4 lakh crore worth more REITs could be listed.

REITs allow developers to

- Raise money & deleverage
- Provide liquidity to shareholders
- Increases market value due to increased transparency

As an investor, you are ready🙂

More from JST Investments

More from Economy

1/ Trend Factor: Any Economic Gains from Using Information over Investment Horizons? (Han, Zhou, Zhu)

"A trend factor using multiple time lengths outperforms ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal, which are based on the three price trends separately."

https://t.co/udkvsdw2Lz


2/ This resembles combining multiple measures of ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal (forecasts determined by walking forward rather than using signs from the full sample).

Unlike normal moving average signals, these are *cross-sectional.* More below:
https://t.co/wkIFLg9jtK


3/ Unsurprisingly, the Trend factor formed by this approach outperforms benchmarks in terms of both Sharpe ratio and tail metrics. It's combining momentum with two factors that are negatively correlated to it AND using multiple specifications.

More here:
https://t.co/x8Tloz3iyL


4/ "Average return and volatility of the trend factor are both higher in recession periods. However, the Sharpe ratio is virtually the same.

"Interestingly, all of the factors still have positive average returns.

"Momentum experiences the greatest increase in volatility."


5/ "In terms of maximum drawdown and the Calmar ratio, the trend factor performs the best.

"The trend factor is correlated with the short-term reversal factor (35%), long-term reversal factor (14%), and the market (20%) but is virtually uncorrelated with the momentum factor."

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