Sequent is down 60% from its highs. Let's understand how their business is faring (by @AnishA_Moonka )

A thread 🧵👇

1/ How do businesses happen? Do they just crop up the day when an entrepreneur thinks of it? Do they become bigger as the stock reaches new highs?

I guess, No. It takes time, It takes labor. Again, Will the ascension be smooth? Never.

The journey of Sequent in the last 5 yrs:
2/ Pre-FY15: Sequent was merely a commodity high volume low-value API player

Due to this intrapreneur's (Mr. Manish Gupta) efforts that we see Sequent as the only USFDA approved generic animal player from 🇮🇳

Behind the deals of Strides Agila plant & the Australian business.
3/ The transformation speaks volumes of how such a businessman thinks.

In 6yrs of existence, he has taken the unknown co. to be among the Top 20 in the world.

Now, he is taking a long shot to enter the Top 10 over the next decade (aka. Sequent 2.0); A tall task.
4/ If he is dreaming big & has executed in the past with industry tailwinds; the common question is why is the stock down by so much?

Probabilities: Investors went from a high probability of success to a low in months as multiple obstacles (short term?) hit the co.
5/ Again, It's not all hunky Dory.

While the rev growth is better than the industry, the co. has been struggling with margins for the last 2-3 quarters.

There are multiple obstacles & we will discuss them one by one.
6/ This quarter the gross margins have dropped to a 5yr low of 42.8%.

Particularly, the China power issue again (as I had discussed in my Laurus thread)

A sharp rise in input costs & given a B2B company; passing on takes a long time & is usually a difficult conversation.
7/ While it is visible that China+1 is playing out in the broad sense; the dependence on our neighbors is not going anytime soon, at least not for 2-3yrs

Such disruptions are a risk. Also, Higher inventories are an outcome (Higher Working capital)

Anyway, it will get passed on.
8/ Another risk that played out was of much lower orders in the API business especially Albendazole.

While the portfolio continues to grow in number & rev (up 25% in Q2FY22); the albendazole API degree by a lot leading to 10% regrowth overall

Stockpiling last year, hurt them.
9/ The biggest risk remains the Turkish Lira devaluation: Not even a forex expert knows

Sequent does get the benefit of a weaker currency to export (use Turkey as its supply base); however, the Turkey domestic biz gets hurt: In Q2 they grew 11% in cc but degree 7% in real terms.
10/ However, let's talk positives now

- Big Opportunity: $51B industry globally growing at 5-6% cagr
- Strong R&D efforts (Formulations & APIs) to drive the next leg of growth
- Major capacity expansion over FY22-23: focused on regulated markets
11/ - Top industry veterans induced into the board in the last year with a focus toward maximizing the Terminal value
- Optionality: CDMO & CMO contracts with Top 10 global Animal Healthcare cos.
- Capacity to suffer: Investing 200crs over the next 2 yrs in capability building.
12/ To summarise, there are multiple strands one can write on this niche industry with very strong economics once scale is reached. Think Zoetis.

However, I aspired to just clarify the misinterpretations. Let me know in the comments about your thoughts on Sequent 2.0 😸

End.
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Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?

A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:


2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to

- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal

3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:

Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.

Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.

4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?

To get clarity.

You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.

It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.

5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”

Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.
THE MEANING, SIGNIFICANCE AND HISTORY OF SWASTIK

The Swastik is a geometrical figure and an ancient religious icon. Swastik has been Sanatan Dharma’s symbol of auspiciousness – mangalya since time immemorial.


The name swastika comes from Sanskrit (Devanagari: स्वस्तिक, pronounced: swastik) &denotes “conducive to wellbeing or auspicious”.
The word Swastik has a definite etymological origin in Sanskrit. It is derived from the roots su – meaning “well or auspicious” & as meaning “being”.


"सु अस्ति येन तत स्वस्तिकं"
Swastik is de symbol through which everything auspicios occurs

Scholars believe word’s origin in Vedas,known as Swasti mantra;

"🕉स्वस्ति ना इन्द्रो वृधश्रवाहा
स्वस्ति ना पूषा विश्ववेदाहा
स्वस्तिनास्तरक्ष्यो अरिश्तनेमिही
स्वस्तिनो बृहस्पतिर्दधातु"


It translates to," O famed Indra, redeem us. O Pusha, the beholder of all knowledge, redeem us. Redeem us O Garudji, of limitless speed and O Bruhaspati, redeem us".

SWASTIK’s COSMIC ORIGIN

The Swastika represents the living creation in the whole Cosmos.


Hindu astronomers divide the ecliptic circle of cosmos in 27 divisions called
https://t.co/sLeuV1R2eQ this manner a cross forms in 4 directions in the celestial sky. At centre of this cross is Dhruva(Polestar). In a line from Dhruva, the stars known as Saptarishi can be observed.