I guess, No. It takes time, It takes labor. Again, Will the ascension be smooth? Never.
The journey of Sequent in the last 5 yrs:
Sequent is down 60% from its highs. Let's understand how their business is faring (by @AnishA_Moonka )
A thread 🧵👇
I guess, No. It takes time, It takes labor. Again, Will the ascension be smooth? Never.
The journey of Sequent in the last 5 yrs:
Due to this intrapreneur's (Mr. Manish Gupta) efforts that we see Sequent as the only USFDA approved generic animal player from 🇮🇳
Behind the deals of Strides Agila plant & the Australian business.
In 6yrs of existence, he has taken the unknown co. to be among the Top 20 in the world.
Now, he is taking a long shot to enter the Top 10 over the next decade (aka. Sequent 2.0); A tall task.
Probabilities: Investors went from a high probability of success to a low in months as multiple obstacles (short term?) hit the co.
While the rev growth is better than the industry, the co. has been struggling with margins for the last 2-3 quarters.
There are multiple obstacles & we will discuss them one by one.
Particularly, the China power issue again (as I had discussed in my Laurus thread)
A sharp rise in input costs & given a B2B company; passing on takes a long time & is usually a difficult conversation.
Such disruptions are a risk. Also, Higher inventories are an outcome (Higher Working capital)
Anyway, it will get passed on.
While the portfolio continues to grow in number & rev (up 25% in Q2FY22); the albendazole API degree by a lot leading to 10% regrowth overall
Stockpiling last year, hurt them.
Sequent does get the benefit of a weaker currency to export (use Turkey as its supply base); however, the Turkey domestic biz gets hurt: In Q2 they grew 11% in cc but degree 7% in real terms.
- Big Opportunity: $51B industry globally growing at 5-6% cagr
- Strong R&D efforts (Formulations & APIs) to drive the next leg of growth
- Major capacity expansion over FY22-23: focused on regulated markets
- Optionality: CDMO & CMO contracts with Top 10 global Animal Healthcare cos.
- Capacity to suffer: Investing 200crs over the next 2 yrs in capability building.
However, I aspired to just clarify the misinterpretations. Let me know in the comments about your thoughts on Sequent 2.0 😸
End.
https://t.co/MP3T5Gepm6
Sequent is down 60% from its highs. Let's understand how their business is faring (by @AnishA_Moonka )
— JST Investments (@JstInvestments) November 30, 2021
A thread \U0001f9f5\U0001f447
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A THREAD ON @SarangSood
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020
