BC ECONOMY
Saved by @jay_millerjay

I’m beginning to think that the left has been too obsessed with GDP as a broken economic metric governing the global shitshow, when inflation is more insidious. Deflation may be a more radical demand than degrowth. Burst bubbles. Deflate the price of fossil fuel infrastructure.

 It’s amazing just how much political economy is still determined by the threat of stagflation. This has created a weird metonymy in which as long as you’re fight inflation (preserving the interests of (older) savers) you’re also fighting stagnation (supporting (younger) earners).
To some extent the residual fear of deflationary spirals lies behind this, waiting in the wings for any suggestion that stagnation must be fought with deflation. This is entirely understandable, as uncontrolled deflation hits the poorest hardest.
The assumption that conjoins these fears into an engine of unbridled economic stagnation is that there’s a unitary market effectively mediating between the markets in different sectors, be this unity micro-economic or macro-economic in flavour. But this just isn’t how it works.
There is so much more logistic friction in the price system than the popular story of just in time production suggests, not least in the concrete details of differentiated trade between economic actors from local businesses to nation states.
The conditions that enable relative stability of prices between sectors are *extremely* political, and far more complicated than Hayek’s vision of the price system suggests. These conditions constitute the parameters of the tacit social contract underpinning liberal democracies.
Outside of niche markets in consumer goods, prices are incredibly sticky, and the reason they’re sticky is that the stability of power depends on their stickiness. Libertarians are fond of this as a critique of state intervention, but you don’t need a state to exert power.
The price system is not just smooth supply-demand negotiation, but power broking between finance, industrial cartels, and other interest groups, only partially mediated by states and state blocks. Anti-trust is a joke. The market is built from bonds of anti-competitive trust.
It’s not so much that prices are sticky as that purchasing power is sticky, the more you’ve got the easier it is to maintain it and the less you’ve got the harder it is to grow. It’s shifts in concrete industrial relations between sectors that have the potential to destroy power.
This is where the real lie of ‘disruptive’ investment comes to the fore. Such innovations are far likelier to disrupt labour power than anything else in an era where the institutions articulating this power are degraded or tame.
Moreover, the consolidation of purchasing power synergises with broken investment systems that divert resources away from genuinely disruptive technologies and into safe competition over consumer goods. Jet packs conflict with high street based business models
This isn’t to say that change doesn’t happen, just that its effects are felt in ways peculiar to the pace at which they take place. Micro-economically we’re good at relative value estimation in the short term (local), but bad at absolute value in the long term (global).
Consumers are boiled like frogs by slow but steady differential price inflation, and captains of industry push each other off cliffs like lemmings unable to see the industrial future rising up to greet them. New titans rise slow enough for common sense to mask it until too late.
Everyone is complicit in changing the industrial base as little as possible to preserve the current set of scams encoded in the relative purchasing power within and between political blocks, geographic and otherwise. The main risks taken are the precisely the wrong ones.
The grand cognitive potential of humanity and its technological prostheses is harnessed by the stubborn incompetence of the global market system and turned to tasks that waste it in egregiously efficient, rather than gloriously excessive ways.
It might just be time to reconfigure and reroute this potential around the complex knots of power and ignorance still holding together the last liberal compromise in political economy. To trade slow burn immoderation for destructive creation. There’s destruction aplenty already.
So I say to my fellow millennials, and the zoomers who are often confused for us, reach for your avocados and your smartphones: our work is not yet done. we’ve whole industries to destroy. 🖖
P.S. The fact my smartphone predictive text corrects ‘immiseration’ to ‘immoderation’ is the most bleakly poetic representative fact I’ve seen in quite some time.

More from pete wolfendale

pete wolfendale
pete wolfendale
@deontologistics
This is what happens when you train neural networks largely on tone and its stylistic relics. They pick up formal features of arguments (not so much fallacies as tics) that have almost nothing to do with semantic content (focus on connotation over implication).


This is a secular problem in the discipline. It's got nothing to do with the Analytic/Continental split in the anglophone world. They've both got the same ramifying signal/noise problem, it's just that the styles (tics and connotations) are different in each pedagogical context.

And this is before we start talking about tone policing and topic policing, which are both rife and essentially make the peer review journal system completely unfit for purpose, populated as it is by a random sampling of pedants selecting for syntactic noise over semantic signal.

We've allowed a system of self-reinforcing and ratcheting filters to evolve that effectively *fuzzes* our contribution to the growth of human knowledge (https://t.co/VmW15pGt7J), because it selects for properties only loosely related to those we claim to want. Let that sink in.

This is literally the opposite of what a filter is supposed to do: extract signal from noise, syntactic compression that preserves semantic content. Instead we are awash in syntactic artifacts optimised for minimal criticisable content and maximal pedantic posturing.
FOR LATER READ
pete wolfendale
pete wolfendale
@deontologistics
@paulkreinerhere @schulzb589 I accept that I haven't given a proof of this impossibility, but I believe the concerns I've laid out could probably be formalised in a way that would lead to one, though it'd involve something like a combinatoric diagonalisation similar to Russell's paradox.

@schulzb589 To state my issue in a more philosophical way, I think the desire to combinatorially totalise mathematical syntax is an effect of something like a transcendental illusion, what I sometimes call the Mythos of Logos.

@schulzb589 It's the Leibnizian desire to obviate creative dialogical interaction (dialectical reason) by providing a deductive system (monological reason) that would allow us to simply 'shut up and calculate'; the desire to obviate the pragmatic autonomy of discovery by automating it.

@schulzb589 It doesn't matter how many times this desire is betrayed by its own formal tools: Russell, Godel, Turing, Chaitin, etc.; it doesn't matter that these betrayals are what drive the externalisation of thought by producing new tools to automate computation. It always comes back.

@schulzb589 The desire to brute force reality, be it mathematical or empirical, is always lying in wait, whispering seemingly 'reasonable' lies about what is and isn't rationally possible. This is as close as I come to endorsing Heidegger and Adorno's worries about technoscience.
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pete wolfendale
pete wolfendale
@deontologistics
My morning thought. I think what's most incompatible about the way I think and the journal article format as a means of capturing and validating thought is that I have a completely different sense of the relation between tentativeness, rigor, and informatic compression.

The characteristic Pete thought is: wait a minute, this whole area is dominated by an assumption that no one seems to be questioning, and I've got two options to express that: i) outline the logic of the issue in a quick and compressed way, ii) write a small book with references.

The discipline seems to want something in between these poles every single time, and this makes me extremely anxious because I feel (with good reason) like any partially referential engagement with the issue will get instantly torpedoed by anyone outside its referential remit.

To repeat something I've said before: I'm actually quite good at being *concise*, I just find it very hard to be *brief*, because most of the thoughts I have don't permit brevity. Consider what your (referential) reactions are to this brief piece:

One of the main genres of publication I've actually excelled in over the years is dictionary articles, which I take a lot of joy in writing, and include some of the pieces of which I'm most proud. Consider this one on the crux of Meillassoux's project:
FOR LATER READ
pete wolfendale
pete wolfendale
@deontologistics
So, here’s a way of reframing this question: which societies enabled coexistence and collaboration between people with divergent social styles, rather than imposing a dominant social style? Such social pluralism is very important indeed.


I suspect that the vast majority of the answers to the original question will fall foul of the tendency to project ideal social arrangements that reflect our own style of social understanding and engagement, and that this will lead them to talk past one another.

Consider the perspective of someone far away from you on in the neurological map, who doesn’t overlap with your socially calibrated genetic resources for social intelligence: the social heaven of an autist introvert may be the social hell of a bipolar extrovert, and vice versa.

I’ve had many good conversations about this with people in different parts of the map who overlap with me in different ways (h/t @tjohnlinward, @dynamic_proxy, @maradydd, @mojozozoe, @UnclePhobic) whose personal heavens I would like to visit, but maybe not live in full time.

We get to see glimpses of these heavens not merely in the past, but in the present, and abstract their geometries, both in spatial/architectural terms (https://t.co/aTcRgtJOVJ) and in temporal/dynamic terms (). The physical/computational platforms around us configure our agency.
SOCIETY
pete wolfendale
pete wolfendale
@deontologistics
I think one way of looking at the economic pathologies of our society, without using words like 'capitalism' and 'rentiership', is to talk about inequities in the distribution of risk. Some have more taste for risk than others, sure, but risk is not distributed on this basis.

In the UK, so much of our political troubles come from the growth in the landlord class, who if nothing else, wield disproportionate power relative to their social worth: at one and the same time claim to be martyrs to the risk of investment, and demand these risks be minimised.

Of course, it's possible to make claims like this: e.g., nurses have every right to claim that they shoulder not merely more risk than most, but far more risk than is strictly necessary. The pandemic has made this brutally obvious to anyone who has been paying attention.

However one chooses to tally up compensation for this social role, be it financial, social, or some other privilege, it's pretty obvious that every last 'essential worker' is shouldering more societal risk than most non-essential workers compensated far better than they.

The way this trade off gets (implicitly) articulated as 'pay vs. purpose' is one of the enduring insights of @davidgraeber's Bullshit Jobs. Yet there are many essential workers who don't even get the illusion of purpose in compensation for personal risk (e.g., warehouse staff).
ECONOMY

More from Economy

Kanekoa
Kanekoa
@KanekoaTheGreat
1/ In @RayDalio's perspective, we are at the very late stages of the long term debt cycle. These long term debt cycles typically take 50-75 years to play out. This cycle began in 1945 when World War II ended and we began the US dollar-dominated world order.


2/ In the words of @RayDalio, "Right now, the world’s major central banks have the least fuel in their tanks since the late 1930s so are now in the later stages of the long-term debt cycle. Because they come along about once in a lifetime most people aren’t aware of them."


3/ Central banks have spent the last decade in a race to see who could devalue their currency the fastest. Near 0% interest rates have meant increased printing of the dollar, euro, and yen. Central banks no longer have the ability to tighten credit so they print money.


4/ Being towards the later stages of the long-term debt cycle there is a global sovereign debt bubble similar to what we saw in the 20's & 30's. In 2019, global debt-to-gdp hit 322% with total debt reaching a new all-time high of $253 Trillion.


5/ The wealth gap has also expanded to levels last seen in the 30's. Historically, inequality and large wealth gaps have eventually led to dire consequences. Periods of conflict and social unrest often marked by taxes, revolutions, or wars.
ECONOMY
Rohit Lamba
Rohit Lamba
@rohlamba
0/ A holiday economic theory reading list. Some of my favorite pieces on theory that can be read with minimal sweat, but with the maximal intellectual reward. In no particular order:

1/ Myerson 1999. "Nash equilibrium & history of economic theory." JEL. Written with characteristic Myersonian elegance. "how a few short papers by a young mathematician achieved one of the great watershed breakthroughs in the history of social

2/ Blackwell & DeGroot 1986. “A conversation with David Blackwell.” Stat Science. After his PhD at 21, "There were 105 black colleges at that time & I wrote 105 letters of application." Beautiful discussion on a gamut of ideas & his intellectual life.

3/ Geanakoplos 1992. “Common Knowledge.” JEP. Zuper piece, lucidly written. Lots of interesting puzzles, great for teaching. When Moriarty says "All I have to say has already crossed your mind," Holmes retorts "then possibly my answer has crossed yours."

4/ Morris 1995. "The common prior assumption in economic theory.” E&P. This beauty was Stephen's first chap of PhD thesis! Does rationality imply CP? Does relaxing CP make theorizing uninteresting? Is failure of CP a failure of information processing?
ECONOMY , ALL
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Fionna O'Leary, \U0001f56f\U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺...
@fascinatorfun
What do a Tory Peer, Selwyn Gummer (Lord Chadlington), David Sumner ( Sumner Group Holdings) and the Sanchez Perez family (drugs money, laundered through Gold mines) have in common?

It’s another company-saving a £50 million PPE contract shaggy dog story

Connections, connections


What a start to the story

“A bulletproof truck trundled down the road in downtown Lima, guarded by 18 policeman
They were wearing body armour & wielding high velocity rifles

No-one was taking any chances
This was a Special delivery for Peruvian Prosecutor for an anti drug trial


That was in 2011, the same year that Lord Chadlington’s daughter got married in Chadlington to Henry Allsopp.

Who was there?
Yes Kirstie Allsopp of Location, location, location and all this Covid nonsense fame) is his sister

Camilla, his Godmother

Jeremy Hunt

Cameron


Well. Come on. Lord Chadlington had been chair of the local Witney Conservative Association. It’s only fair.

Hang on. Julian Wheatland, Director of SCL Group/ Cambridge Analytica had also been chair of Witney Conservative Association...and campaigned for his mate Cameron

Are we sure Julian Wheatland and his side kick Alexander Nix were not there too @JolyonMaugham ?

I mean. They move in the same North Oxford circles.
ECONOMY
Beatriz R\xedos
Beatriz Ríos
@BeaRios_
It's out! The @EU_Commission winter economic forecast for 2021 📊
🇪🇸 +5.6% GDP
🇫🇷 +5.5% GDP
🇭🇷 +5.6% GDP
🇸🇮 +4.7% GDP
🇲🇹 +4.5% GDP
🇵🇹 +4.1% GDP
🇸🇰 +4.0% GDP
🇭🇺 +4.0% GDP
🇧🇪 +3.9% GDP
🇷🇴 +3.8% GDP
💶 +3.8% GDP
🇪🇺 +3.7% GDP
🇬🇷 +3.5% GDP
🇱🇻 +3.5% GDP
🇮🇪 +3.4% GDP
🇮🇹 +3.2% GDP

🇩🇪 +3.2% GDP
🇨🇾 +3.2% GDP
🇱🇺 +3.2% GDP
🇨🇿 +3.2% GDP
🇵🇱 +3.1% GDP
🇩🇰 +2.9% GDP
🇫🇮 +2.8% GDP
🇧🇬 +2.7% GDP
🇸🇪 +2.7% GDP
🇪🇪 +2.6% GDP
🇱🇹 +2.2% GDP
🇦🇹 +2.0% GDP
🇳🇱 +1.8% GDP

Vs📈 2020:

🇪🇸 -11.0% GDP
🇬🇷 -10.0% GDP
🇲🇹 - 9.0% GDP
🇭🇷 - 8.9% GDP
🇮🇹 - 8.8% GDP
🇫🇷 - 8.3% GDP
🇵🇹 - 7.6% GDP
🇦🇹 - 7.4% GDP
💶 - 6.8% GDP
🇪🇺 - 6.3% GDP
🇧🇪 - 6.2% GDP
🇸🇮 - 6.2% GDP
🇸🇰 - 5.9% GDP
🇨🇾 - 5.8% GDP
🇨🇿 - 5.7% GDP
🇭🇺 - 5.3% GDP
🇩🇪 - 5.0% GDP
🇷🇴 - 5.0% GDP
🇧🇬 - 4.9% GDP

🇳🇱 - 4.1% GDP
🇱🇻 - 3.5% GDP
🇩🇰 - 3.5% GDP
🇱🇺 - 3.1% GDP
🇫🇮 - 3.1% GDP
🇮🇪 - 3.0% GDP
🇪🇪 - 2.9% GDP
🇸🇪 - 2.9% GDP
🇵🇱 - 2.8% GDP
🇱🇹 - 0.9% GDP

Commissioner @PaoloGentiloni says the forecast is based on the assumption that restrictive measures to contain the #coronavirus will be eased in the second quarter of 2021.
ECONOMY
The Recount
The Recount
@therecount
Last month, Texas resident Royce Peirce paid $387.70 to heat his two-story house. This month, he owes $8,162.73 — and counting.

Amid freezing temperatures and another looming winter storm, Texans are facing a second crisis: astronomical power

Why are these energy bills so high? You can thank Texas’s power grid for that.

The U.S. is divided into three grids: one covers the eastern states, another the western states, and then there’s the Texas grid, ERCOT, which covers nearly the entire state.

Now you might be wondering: Why does Texas have its own power grid?

If you’re familiar with the state’s history and public policy, you probably already know the answer. In short, Texas has its own grid to avoid dealing with the federal

What we’re witnessing now is a collapse of the state’s power grid.

Amid freezing temperatures, the imbalance between Texas’s staggering electricity demand and its limited supply caused prices to skyrocket from $20 per megawatt hour to $9,000 per megawatt hour — a 450% increase.

One wholesale power supplier, Griddy, made a surprising decision.

CEO Michael Fallquist told Griddy’s 29,000 customers to abandon his service and switch providers: “We want what’s right by our consumers, so we are encouraging them to
ECONOMY

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Invest Like the Best
Invest Like the Best
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In 1937, a trucker got frustrated waiting for his cargo to be unloaded. He later sold his company for $1.1 billion.

Here’s the story of how Malcom McLean made a billion dollars and which startup could be following in his footsteps. (Inspired by our episode with @laurabehrenswu)


In the early 1950s, the shipping industry was a dying business.

New York’s docks were handling half as much domestic cargo in the early 1950s as they had been in the depressed 1930s.

In thirty years, no one had invested significant money in coastal shipping.

Why?

As McLean found out, loading ships was difficult and slow.

A truck or train would deliver items to the port. Each item was unloaded separately, recorded, and carried to storage.

When a ship was ready, each item was taken from storage, counted again, and hauled on-board.


The cost of this labor was significant. As one expert at the time explained:

“A four-thousand-mile voyage for a shipment might consume 50 percent of its costs in covering just the two ten-mile movements through two ports.”


Yet, despite the industry’s issues, it felt little pressure to change.

Foreigners were barred from operating domestically. Cartels ran international routes. And gov. subsidies eased the pain of labor costs.

Reshaping the industry needed an outsider.

Enter Malcolm McLean.
HISTORY
AAdhira \U0001f319\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
AAdhira 🌙🇮🇳...
@Aadhiraspeaks
Shri Hanuman had boon to be immortal. And be present where ever there is Ram stuti.
I came across this beautiful story that I would like to share
#threadstories
#Hanuman ji is believed to live in the foothills of Himalayas. But once he spent a lot of time in Sri Lanka
1/9


Where Ravan's brother ruled for many years..
On his way back he came across tribal people from community called #Mathanga
He gave Darshan to them. The chief of the tribe asked him to keep coming back to guide their generations
Hanuman ji said that whoever recites this mantra
2/9


I will give them Darshan. But there are two conditions
1st he/she must know his relationship with me
2nd there must not be anyone around him in 950 mts radius. If present, that person must also know about my relationship with him /her.

He promised to come after every 41 yrs
3/9

The Mathangs also maintain a ‘logbook’ where they record all the words spoken and ‘leelas’ performed by Lord Hanuman.
They call him their Guru
Who teaches them how to live their lives.
A Sri Lankan organization called Setuu is studying this ‘logbook’ and also conduct
4/9

programmes for Hanuman devotees who can do ‘Sadhna‘ under the guidance of Setuu masters. Devotees who qualify all the criteria will be eligible for Hanuman’s ‘sakshaat darshan‘
The Setuu has certain conditions that need to be kept in mind which includes devoting one complete
5/9
RELIGION
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Anu Satheesh
Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5
Thrikkangode Sree Randu Moorthy Temple
Ottappalam, Kerala. 🚩
#keralatemples

This is very unique temple as Shiva and Vishnu both are in the “linga” form in the same Garbhagriham. The Srikovil is in a circular pattern. Temple's Prathishta was done by Parasurama.


Mahadeva and Maha Vishnu in the same Srikovil is very rare Prathishta, but poojas are done separately Dhara is done to Maha Vishnu here. People suffering from “KAIVISHAM” and mental illness are fully cured on drinking a medicinal herb supplied by a nearby family here.


The root of the banyan tree around the Ayyappa Sannidhanam is said to have great powers for skin ailments.

Very ancient temple but was covered with forest for many years.
Later two persons Chakki and Chaathan, while cutting trees their axe hit on the nearby
@SriramKannan77


Vigrahams and it suddenly started bleeding. Later Devaprashnam was held and thus found out that these were murthy's of Shiva and Vishnu which was worshipped long back. And thus temple is constructed here.
Om Namah Sivaye
Om Namo Narayanaya
🕉🙏🕉
ALL
foone
foone
@Foone
You want to know something about how bullshit insane our brains are?
OK, so there's a physical problem with our eyes: We move them in short fast bursts called "saccades", right? very quick, synchronized movements.
The only problem is: they go all blurry and useless during this

having your vision turn into a blurry mess every time you move your eyes is obviously not a good idea, so our brains hide it from us. Now, imagine you're an engineer and you have this problem.

You've got some obvious solutions you could do.
1. make the vision go black during movement. (Some VR games do this!)
2. just keep showing the last thing we saw prior to movement

both are good options with different downsides, but OH NO. this is assuming everything makes sense and is chronological and (regular) logical.
Your brain does neither of these options, really.

first, it basically puts your visual system on "pause". You're not seeing blackness or even nothing, you're just not seeing period.
then when you finish your saccade, it shows you what you now see at the new position. and then it pretends it can time travel.
ALL
Novid Houellebecq (That's Hollaback)
Novid Houellebecq (Tha...
@GarouGothic
I want to explain what happened to tumblr overnight. And why Twitter as reached it's dream (or have come ever so close to it)

Yahoo, who bought Tumblr years ago, used to have a huge adult presence on the early net. They allowed adult groups and what not.

However, people and bots (just like now) misused the service, and Yahoo were forced to make a choice. They made private the groups (and later closed them down and sold some of it to other companies) and then ended their chatrooms on yahoo messenger...

after a incident with one of the chatrooms vid cams. The damage was done, Yahoo Messenger lost a lot of people - and with the closing of the groups - backpage and Craigslist came more important.

Now backpage is no more and Craigslist is slowly passing away. Tumblr had a semi strong community, but once 2014 came around and both porn, and political bots exploded the quality started to go down,
TECH