This is mostly a thread on reminders to myself relating mostly to the former.
Crypto trading - some personal takeaways from 2020
This is mostly a thread on reminders to myself relating mostly to the former.
Confirmation bias (ignoring contrary signals), anchoring bias (married to entry, trading PnL), sizing too big on low r/r trades, hesitating to buy cheap assets because "it's fallen/rallied too much".
/1
Constantly question whether you have done all you could to maximize returns in the past month/quarter. Review all tools at your disposal (vol strats, momentum strats, fundamentals) but don't Dunning-Kruger yourself. There are no jack of all trades.
/2
Don't regret missing out on a few trades/ investments. Better to win big on 1 high conviction idea then win big on 100 small ones. Be ok with missing out but be ruthless with not learning from it.
/3
Optimize for 4-5 GREAT decisions a year over 50 mediocre decisions. If you're on tilt or in a rut, doubling down will compound your losses. Take time off, re-assess your strategy, then return. The market will always be here.
/4
Re-read Fooled by Randomness. One good investment is a lucky bet. One good quarter doesn't make you a fund manager. Find out how to be consistent and constantly evolve this.
/5
Everyone talks their books. Recognize who is only out to "pick your brain" with no intention to reciprocate. Watch out for groupthink, but play iterative games with long term people. Always seek dissent, but ignore uninformed people with loud voices.
/6
Trading is exchanging time for money. Investing creates wealth when you sleep. Former is what you know. Latter is what you know and who you know. These skills seem ostensibly similar but require different inputs to nurture.
/7
Crypto is small; place your reputation above all else. Never let short term profits, regardless of how enticing, come before decisions that optimize for longer term value creation.
/8
@Arthur_0x @AviFelman @HassanBassiri @ConvexMonster @CL207 @Rewkang @MapleLeafCap @lightcrypto @Daryllautk @Darrenlautf
More from Crypto
Excited to share our 2020 #Bitcoin review.
2020 will be remembered as the year the long fabled institutions finally arrived and #Bitcoin became a bonafide macroeconomic asset.
Below are the top highlights of each month for Bitcoin’s historic year.
1/
Bitcoin is now at all-time highs capping off an extremely successful year.
But it was by no means stable ride up.
2020 was a historically volatile year.
@YoungCryptoPM and I provided a detailed overview of every month of 2020 in all its
Jan.
3 days into the new year the US assassinated Iran’s top general Soleimani.
BTC surprisingly reacted to the events behaving like a safe haven as the risk of war increased.
The events provided the first hints of BTC potentially having graduated to a legitimate macro asset.
Feb.
COVID-19 reached a tipping point causing markets to crash.
BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 reached an ATH in the following weeks.
This is when everyone learned BTC was not a recession hedge, it was a hedge against inflation and loss of confidence in fiat currencies. https://t.co/JB7dJ3qp6M
Mar.
Financial markets in free fall.
The liquidity crisis was so severe BTC experienced one of it’s worst days ever.
Now known as Black Thursday, on March 12, BTC plummeted as much as 50% to below $4,000 at its lowest point on the day.
BTC closed the day down 40%
2020 will be remembered as the year the long fabled institutions finally arrived and #Bitcoin became a bonafide macroeconomic asset.
Below are the top highlights of each month for Bitcoin’s historic year.
1/
Bitcoin is now at all-time highs capping off an extremely successful year.
But it was by no means stable ride up.
2020 was a historically volatile year.
@YoungCryptoPM and I provided a detailed overview of every month of 2020 in all its
Jan.
3 days into the new year the US assassinated Iran’s top general Soleimani.
BTC surprisingly reacted to the events behaving like a safe haven as the risk of war increased.
The events provided the first hints of BTC potentially having graduated to a legitimate macro asset.
Feb.
COVID-19 reached a tipping point causing markets to crash.
BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 reached an ATH in the following weeks.
This is when everyone learned BTC was not a recession hedge, it was a hedge against inflation and loss of confidence in fiat currencies. https://t.co/JB7dJ3qp6M
1/ Figure I should get out ahead of this issue:
— Dan McArdle (@robustus) June 22, 2018
Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation & loss of confidence in fiat, NOT a hedge against a typical recession.
Mar.
Financial markets in free fall.
The liquidity crisis was so severe BTC experienced one of it’s worst days ever.
Now known as Black Thursday, on March 12, BTC plummeted as much as 50% to below $4,000 at its lowest point on the day.
BTC closed the day down 40%
A primer on how to use @coingecko for your crypto data/research/trading needs.
Share it with a friend who needs it!
1/ Getting started with crypto and want to check prices/projects? https://t.co/LFnk4vukxj has info on just about every crypto you'll need :)
2/ Search over 6000+ cryptocurrencies available on the market. You can see what's trending in the space as well.
Researching by categories? Filter (left side) -> Select categories -> DeFi, DOT ecosystem, Exchange-based tokens, NFTs - anything!
3/ Lets say you're looking at #Bitcoin https://t.co/g205lj03pG
At a glance you get:
- Price
- Mkt Capitalization (valuation)
- Circulating/Total supply
- 24h trading volume
- Links to websites, social media, block explorers
- Calculator
Next - check valuation?
4/ Market cap is used to rank coins, and we'll show you how its calculated - Hover over Circulating Supply (?) for breakdown.
Note: used @chainlink as example here - https://t.co/Jc46fe79Ag
While MC is important also consider product fit, narrative, team, community etc.
5/ If you're trading on AMMs like @Uniswap or @SushiSwap, you can copy the contract address directly to your clipboard.
Using @metamask_io? Add the token directly so it shows as one of the "Assets" that you own in the wallet.
See: https://t.co/94XihMf5oz
Share it with a friend who needs it!
1/ Getting started with crypto and want to check prices/projects? https://t.co/LFnk4vukxj has info on just about every crypto you'll need :)
2/ Search over 6000+ cryptocurrencies available on the market. You can see what's trending in the space as well.
Researching by categories? Filter (left side) -> Select categories -> DeFi, DOT ecosystem, Exchange-based tokens, NFTs - anything!
3/ Lets say you're looking at #Bitcoin https://t.co/g205lj03pG
At a glance you get:
- Price
- Mkt Capitalization (valuation)
- Circulating/Total supply
- 24h trading volume
- Links to websites, social media, block explorers
- Calculator
Next - check valuation?
4/ Market cap is used to rank coins, and we'll show you how its calculated - Hover over Circulating Supply (?) for breakdown.
Note: used @chainlink as example here - https://t.co/Jc46fe79Ag
While MC is important also consider product fit, narrative, team, community etc.
5/ If you're trading on AMMs like @Uniswap or @SushiSwap, you can copy the contract address directly to your clipboard.
Using @metamask_io? Add the token directly so it shows as one of the "Assets" that you own in the wallet.
See: https://t.co/94XihMf5oz
Introducing an effortless way to add tokens to your @metamask_io wallet \U0001f4e5
— CoinGecko (@coingecko) February 8, 2021
Skip the hassle of copying/pasting contract addresses to your wallet. Add an asset and it'll appear in your wallet with just a click - tap the \U0001f98a and try it out for yourself! pic.twitter.com/u26BA29ubs
1/ ERC-20 token standard approve() has caused an unnecessary cost of $53.8M for #Ethereum and #DeFi users
This is bad. Continue reading why and how to avoid this in the future.
👇👇👇
2/ Before you go all rage on the flaws of my analysis, please read the whole Twitter thread for disclaimers and caveats.
3/ approve() is an unnecessary step of ERC-20 tokens when they interact with smart contracts.
You know this because when you do a Uniswap trade you need press two transaction buttons instead of one.
4/ Why there is approve() - you can read the history in this Twitter
5/ I queried all approve() transactions on Google BigQuery public dataset and calculated their ETH cost and then converted this to the USD with the current ETH price.
This is bad. Continue reading why and how to avoid this in the future.
👇👇👇
2/ Before you go all rage on the flaws of my analysis, please read the whole Twitter thread for disclaimers and caveats.
3/ approve() is an unnecessary step of ERC-20 tokens when they interact with smart contracts.
You know this because when you do a Uniswap trade you need press two transaction buttons instead of one.
4/ Why there is approve() - you can read the history in this Twitter
1/ I just spend my Saturday morning on a call with a crypto fund explaining to them how #Ethereum ERC-20 token approve() function works
— \U0001f42e Mikko Ohtamaa (@moo9000) August 29, 2020
I am too old for this shit. pic.twitter.com/7EYfOaRP5L
5/ I queried all approve() transactions on Google BigQuery public dataset and calculated their ETH cost and then converted this to the USD with the current ETH price.
