Crypto trading - some personal takeaways from 2020

Disclaimer: my job requires picking investments, at times with short/medium term view (days-months), many times with a long term view (years).

This is mostly a thread on reminders to myself relating mostly to the former.
Watch out for decisions based on fear & greed

Confirmation bias (ignoring contrary signals), anchoring bias (married to entry, trading PnL), sizing too big on low r/r trades, hesitating to buy cheap assets because "it's fallen/rallied too much".

/1
Minimize regret

Constantly question whether you have done all you could to maximize returns in the past month/quarter. Review all tools at your disposal (vol strats, momentum strats, fundamentals) but don't Dunning-Kruger yourself. There are no jack of all trades.

/2
You can't catch them all

Don't regret missing out on a few trades/ investments. Better to win big on 1 high conviction idea then win big on 100 small ones. Be ok with missing out but be ruthless with not learning from it.

/3
Don't always work harder

Optimize for 4-5 GREAT decisions a year over 50 mediocre decisions. If you're on tilt or in a rut, doubling down will compound your losses. Take time off, re-assess your strategy, then return. The market will always be here.

/4
Create scalable processes

Re-read Fooled by Randomness. One good investment is a lucky bet. One good quarter doesn't make you a fund manager. Find out how to be consistent and constantly evolve this.

/5
Find your brain trust

Everyone talks their books. Recognize who is only out to "pick your brain" with no intention to reciprocate. Watch out for groupthink, but play iterative games with long term people. Always seek dissent, but ignore uninformed people with loud voices.

/6
Distinguish between investments and trading

Trading is exchanging time for money. Investing creates wealth when you sleep. Former is what you know. Latter is what you know and who you know. These skills seem ostensibly similar but require different inputs to nurture.

/7
Find your North Star

Crypto is small; place your reputation above all else. Never let short term profits, regardless of how enticing, come before decisions that optimize for longer term value creation.

/8
Finally - remember "學如逆水行舟,不進則退"

/fin
Really grateful to have "met" many who helped me improve on the above this year - just to name a few who all deserve your follows:

@Arthur_0x @AviFelman @HassanBassiri @ConvexMonster @CL207 @Rewkang @MapleLeafCap @lightcrypto @Daryllautk @Darrenlautf

More from Crypto

Excited to share our 2020 #Bitcoin review.

2020 will be remembered as the year the long fabled institutions finally arrived and #Bitcoin became a bonafide macroeconomic asset.

Below are the top highlights of each month for Bitcoin’s historic year.

1/


Bitcoin is now at all-time highs capping off an extremely successful year.

But it was by no means stable ride up.

2020 was a historically volatile year.

@YoungCryptoPM and I provided a detailed overview of every month of 2020 in all its

Jan.

3 days into the new year the US assassinated Iran’s top general Soleimani.

BTC surprisingly reacted to the events behaving like a safe haven as the risk of war increased.

The events provided the first hints of BTC potentially having graduated to a legitimate macro asset.


Feb.

COVID-19 reached a tipping point causing markets to crash.

BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 reached an ATH in the following weeks.

This is when everyone learned BTC was not a recession hedge, it was a hedge against inflation and loss of confidence in fiat currencies.
https://t.co/JB7dJ3qp6M


Mar.

Financial markets in free fall.

The liquidity crisis was so severe BTC experienced one of it’s worst days ever.

Now known as Black Thursday, on March 12, BTC plummeted as much as 50% to below $4,000 at its lowest point on the day.

BTC closed the day down 40%

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I hate when I learn something new (to me) & stunning about the Jeff Epstein network (h/t MoodyKnowsNada.)

Where to begin?

So our new Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's stepfather, Samuel Pisar, was "longtime lawyer and confidant of...Robert Maxwell," Ghislaine Maxwell's Dad.


"Pisar was one of the last people to speak to Maxwell, by phone, probably an hour before the chairman of Mirror Group Newspapers fell off his luxury yacht the Lady Ghislaine on 5 November, 1991."
https://t.co/DAEgchNyTP


OK, so that's just a coincidence. Moving on, Anthony Blinken "attended the prestigious Dalton School in New York City"...wait, what? https://t.co/DnE6AvHmJg

Dalton School...Dalton School...rings a

Oh that's right.

The dad of the U.S. Attorney General under both George W. Bush & Donald Trump, William Barr, was headmaster of the Dalton School.

Donald Barr was also quite a


I'm not going to even mention that Blinken's stepdad Sam Pisar's name was in Epstein's "black book."

Lots of names in that book. I mean, for example, Cuomo, Trump, Clinton, Prince Andrew, Bill Cosby, Woody Allen - all in that book, and their reputations are spotless.