BC CRYPTO
Saved by @Jacobtldr

Tesla just announced that it had bought 1.5 billion dollars of bitcoin and could in the future sell cars in bitcoins. Since this morning both Bitcoin and Tesla are going up in the market. Maybe there is afterall something in the saying that“Bitcoin is Tesla without the cars”1/ 20

 Musk is seen as a genius, a true Midas, by many investors and millennials. For them he can never go wrong. He became recently the richest man in the world dur to Tesla stock valuation (+353% yoy). He moves markets and today´s announcement is “kind of legitimise “ bitcoin 2/
Tesla shares attained $870 which represents a Price/ Earnings ratio of 1.747 (!) on the basis of last year´s profits. Apple is at 37 and the S&P firms average is 23 (against a historical average ≈16). Future profits would have to increase a lot to justify a more normal ratio 3/
Tesla has a good product but the question is if it will sell enough cars to get such profits in face of coming fierce competition. However, this is not the question I want to comment upon. It is also not about what may interest the SEC and market conduct…4/
It was not disclosed when Tesla had made this investment. In December, Musk said that Tesla could buy bitcoin, and this was followed by many statements that he supported bitcoin. Bitcoin kept going up & Tesla investment has appreciated. The SEC will look into this 5/
What is important is what all this means for bitcoin's nature and prospects, the abundant misconceptions going around, and authorities and central banks thinking. Among bitcoin and technologic buffs, there is the unshakable belief that bitcoin is the future 6/
First, let´s look at the Tesla announcement that they did it to: “..further diversify and maximize returns on our cash.”. “We expect to begin accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment for our products..subject to applicable laws and initially on a limited basis” 7/
The 1st sentence means that they bought bitcoin as an asset. The 2nd means that the promise to sell cars in bitcoins is limited. Still, any firm can sell in bitcoins at the market exchange rate and immediately go back to dollars on which its production is conducted 8/ 20
There are some costs involved that firms will pass to prices, which would be a problem in small transactions. This and other factors limits the use of bitcoin in transactions which is now negligible. However, even this use will not make a currency out of bitcoin 9/20
With its huge volatility (it is 375 % higher in relation to last October) bitcoin cannot be used as a stable unit of account to take and plan price decisions. No firm could operate a budget or do financial planning based on a unit that can vary as much in 3 months. 10/
It should be clear by now that bitcoin cannot be a currency allowing a STABLE use as a unit of account, a means of payments and a store of value (- 35% between 8 and 27 of January). It is now only another speculative new asset to be compared with the role of gold (!) . 11/
More institutions are investing in bitcoin. A market player said: it is now a matter for allocators. Given that bitcoins are limited to 21 million units (3 million to go), he “calculated” that if all large portfolios would have 0.xx% in bitcoin, its value could go to $400000.12/
Bitcoin is just a series of zeros and ones in a network of computers. It has no fundamental use-value because it will never be a currency. At least gold, that “barbarous relic” (Keynes), has some industrial and jewellery uses that would never justify its historical prices 13/
Speculative assets are valued based only on beliefs. Investors believe that, because of some risk, there will be more or less future buyers, and buy or sell accordingly to that expectation. Bitcoin prices should appear in “commodities” lists not in forex columns 14/
Authorities are condoning the continuation of the public being misled by technological buffs that have no idea of what is money. As Keynes endorsed, the main role of money is to be a stable unit of account defined and managed by the State that creates primary liquidity 15/
Authorities should also make clear that they are thinking of creating central bank digital currency not because of fearing the competition of those crypto-assets. Unlike Monsieur Jourdan, CBs know that they already speak and do digital currencies 16/
If CBs will create digital currencies for the people, they must explain exactly why. Cannot be because “ everything goes digital” or “bitcoin exists” or “we are not technological dinosaurs” or “digital payments don´t work well in advanced countries” or “China is doing it”. 17/
I already live well in a digital currency world that I use for everything̶. I know the arguments of those who want to end the creation of credit/money by the banks. I am very cautious because that is a radical upending of the financial system prone to unwanted consequences 18/
I am not completely against CBs creating their own digital currencies for the people if they protect the essential role of something like banks ensuring credit/money creation and maturity transformation, i.e. credit with long maturities and deposits with short ones. 19/
So, regulate bitcoin and its clones as assets (crypto-assets), explain why the digital currency that the central banks already have should be accessible to the public and in what conditions and try to put a stop to all the irrationalities that surround these issues 20/20’

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We should be proud about @0xPolygon. But don't invest if you don't understand what they do just like any other asset class.
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Sahil Bloom
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Lindy Effect 101

With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.

But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?

Here's Lindy Effect 101!

👇👇👇


1/ First, a few definitions.

The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.

Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.

2/ The term "Lindy effect" is a reference to Lindy's, a New York deli frequented by comedians in the 1960s.

While author Albert Goldman used the term "Lindy's Law" in a 1964 article, it was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who moved the dialogue towards the current definition.


3/ In his book, entitled The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Mandlebrot commented that the more stage appearances a Lindy's comedian made, the more future appearances he could be predicted to make.

The longer he lasted, the longer he would continue to last.

4/ @nntaleb built upon Mandelbrot's work, formally coining the term "Lindy Effect" in his book, Antifragile.

He noted the Lindy Effect with books - the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive.

With no natural upper bound, power laws come into play.
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Patrick McKenzie
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Bitfinex files discovery in "Yo bro, where did our $800 million go?" action and it is every bit as interesting as you'd expect it to

Here's their CFO describing their agreement (which we know from other litigation was never contractualized because, presumably because money launderers hate paper trails):


Bitfinex's CFO was shocked, shocked to learn that the money launderer they engaged to provide money laundering services while I-swear-to-God-this-is-an-actual-quote "we learned to bank like criminals" may have from time to time lied to banks.


"Institutional constraints" means, here, "We were attempting to avoid velocity checks placed by our banking partners to detect fraud and money laundering, which would have detected our fraud and money laundering."


Money at the speed of code, yadda yadda yadda, the Bitcoin economy is surprisingly blasé when several hundred million dollars is in an interstitial state for months.

In a situation never before encountered by a financial institution: the check was not, in fact, in the mail.
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Demetri Kofinas
Demetri Kofinas
@kofinas
1/ If you’ve been listening to @HiddenForcesPod over the last few months, you will know that I’ve been wrestling with many emotions as we’ve moved through the 2020 election, past the inauguration and towards the start of a new presidential administration.

2/ I’ve felt some combination of anxiety, nervousness, distress and sometimes even, anger.

I think these result from the threat I feel emanating from our broken society, as evidenced by not only the assault on the Capitol but by the larger forces that have led us to this moment.


3/ Rather than make an effort to bring our country together, our partisan media and talking heads on cable news outlets find every opportunity to tear it apart.

Likewise, our regulators continue to turn a blind eye to the systemic build-up of risk happening in financial markets.

4/ The celebrated rise of Bitcoin is a symptom of these broken markets.

People have such little faith in government that they'd prefer to hold their money in a database with the carbon footprint of a small nation than in government bonds or in their FDIC insured bank accounts.

5/ And this illuminates a larger observation, which has to do with the generational divide that we are experiencing—a divide which cuts much deeper than any political fissure currently tearing the country apart.

Once again, we can turn to Bitcoin for answers.
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Meltem Demirors
Meltem Demirors
@Melt_Dem
1/ crypto VC is going through an explosive 🧨 phase

there are big funds (>$500M AUM), a lot of small funds (<$50M AUM), and *tons* of prop firms + angels

i’ve done 15 deals in the last 3 months as an angel + small fund @CoinSharesCo VC.

observations + implications... 👇🏾

2/ the big firms need to deploy in size - $5M checks and up

a $250M fund could do a $5-10M deal every month for two years and still be under-allocated

and there aren’t enough companies raising series B / C / D rounds!!!

every deal i’ve done lately is under $50M valuation

3/ so we see firms competing to take down entire rounds.

a recent series A financing had two firms competing to take down the ENTIRE ROUND, and it eventually got upsized, a LOT.

if a company is putting up user acquisition / growth and a revenue story, it’s highly competitive

4/ most projects and co’s don’t need money tho - why would a founder take 20-40% dilution when they’re banking cash and crypto? so they do 5-10%

so the valuations go up, but available allocations go down, resulting in an even bigger squeeze on allocators who *need* to deploy

5/ add in the onslaught of non-crypto M&A that’s coming, which is culling the herd of investable unicorns

add in the wave of SPACs and direct listings taking later stage opportunities out

there just aren’t enough places to put capital in size rn

what’s a fund to do?
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Oh my Goodness!!!

I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!

Read this thread to the end...I just had an epiphany and my mind is blown. Actually, more than blown. More like OBLITERATED! This is the thing! This is the thing that will blow the entire thing out of the water!


Has this man been concealing his true identity?

Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?

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RISHI ASHTAVAKRA(DEVAL)

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