GRADE: A-
Pretty close!
1/ In September 1993, then-Microsoft exec Nathan Myhrvold wrote his landmark memo "Road Kill on the Information Highway", laying out a dozen-ish predictions on the rise of the internet
27 years later, I think it's a super interesting case study. Let's evaluate the predictions -
GRADE: A-
Pretty close!
GRADE: B-
Alas, the electoral college still matters today. The WFH prediction hits closer, but turns out it took two and a half decades + a pandemic to get things going
GRADE: A-
Honestly this one was a bit of a layup, although it took 15 years longer than anyone expected
GRADE: C
Three decades later, and physical banks still exist. Neobanks have a presence in emerging markets, UK, and basically nowhere else. Regulatory inertia: officially a thing
GRADE: A+
Frankly I was shocked by the prescience of this section. Newspapers were once local advertising monopolies. The internet broke that monopoly
GRADE: B+
Pretty much right, but 21 years too early. Broadcasters kept growing until 2014
GRADE: A
The iron law of media investing is that over any long enough timeframe, value inexorably accrues to the content owner
GRADE: C+
Say what you will about low end disruption, but after all these years I still don't want to use a Chromebook
More from Crime
My students @maxzks and Tushar Jois spent most of the summer going through every piece of public documentation, forensics report, and legal document we could find to figure out how police were “breaking phone encryption”. 1/
This was prompted by a claim from someone knowledgeable, who claimed that forensics companies no longer had the ability to break the Apple Secure Enclave Processor, which would make it very hard to crack the password of a locked, recent iPhone. 2/
We wrote an enormous report about what we found, which we’ll release after the holidays. The TL;DR is kind of depressing:
Authorities don’t need to break phone encryption in most cases, because modern phone encryption sort of sucks. 3/
I’ll focus on Apple here but Android is very similar. The top-level is that, to break encryption on an Apple phone you need to get the encryption keys. Since these are derived from the user’s passcode, you either need to guess that — or you need the user to have entered it. 4/
Guessing the password is hard on recent iPhones because there’s (at most) a 10-guess limit enforced by the Secure Enclave Processor (SEP). There’s good evidence that at one point in 2018 a company called GrayKey had a SEP exploit that did this for the X. See photo. 5/
ACLU is suing the FBI over its efforts to break into encrypted devices. https://t.co/TN8X0Slmnf
— Zack Whittaker (@zackwhittaker) December 22, 2020
This was prompted by a claim from someone knowledgeable, who claimed that forensics companies no longer had the ability to break the Apple Secure Enclave Processor, which would make it very hard to crack the password of a locked, recent iPhone. 2/
We wrote an enormous report about what we found, which we’ll release after the holidays. The TL;DR is kind of depressing:
Authorities don’t need to break phone encryption in most cases, because modern phone encryption sort of sucks. 3/
I’ll focus on Apple here but Android is very similar. The top-level is that, to break encryption on an Apple phone you need to get the encryption keys. Since these are derived from the user’s passcode, you either need to guess that — or you need the user to have entered it. 4/
Guessing the password is hard on recent iPhones because there’s (at most) a 10-guess limit enforced by the Secure Enclave Processor (SEP). There’s good evidence that at one point in 2018 a company called GrayKey had a SEP exploit that did this for the X. See photo. 5/
This is terrible weighing of the costs and benefits of the pardon power. I think Senator Murphy woefully undervalues its utility. /1
In part because the Congress of which he is a part has established no functioning second-look mechanisms for shortening sentences or expunging convictions, commutations and pardons are the only mechanisms for correcting injustices in the federal system. /2
And it's not as if those injustices are rare. Go to any federal correctional facility, and take time to learn who is there and about their cases, and you find literally thousands of people whose sentences were grossly excessive given their offenses. /3
Those people need commutations as a corrective because there is no parole or other second look in place to address that. Some have tried to use compassionate release under the First Step Act, but DOJ tries to block those efforts at every turn and it's a limited option. /4
Presidential commutations are thus the only avenue for these folks. And under President Obama, more than 1,700 regular people (not his cronies) received relief. It was woefully inadequate for the need, but it shows the value of the power. /5
Once one party allows the pardon power to become a tool of criminal enterprise, its danger to democracy outweighs its utility as an instrument of justice.
— Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) December 24, 2020
It\u2019s time to remove the pardon power from the Constitution.
In part because the Congress of which he is a part has established no functioning second-look mechanisms for shortening sentences or expunging convictions, commutations and pardons are the only mechanisms for correcting injustices in the federal system. /2
And it's not as if those injustices are rare. Go to any federal correctional facility, and take time to learn who is there and about their cases, and you find literally thousands of people whose sentences were grossly excessive given their offenses. /3
Those people need commutations as a corrective because there is no parole or other second look in place to address that. Some have tried to use compassionate release under the First Step Act, but DOJ tries to block those efforts at every turn and it's a limited option. /4
Presidential commutations are thus the only avenue for these folks. And under President Obama, more than 1,700 regular people (not his cronies) received relief. It was woefully inadequate for the need, but it shows the value of the power. /5
