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Kyle Vogt
@kvogt 5 years, 6 months ago 673 views

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1/ Interesting thing happening in the LIDAR industry right now. 5+ companies will soon or have SPAC'd. Their value is based on projected revenue that comes from entirely overlapping potential customers, with very little discount applied to future projections. Is this bad?

2/ And how did we end up here? SPACs aren't subject to the same effective restrictions on future revenue projections as traditional IPOs. It's totally possible the numbers will be correct for one of these companies. But it's not possible for all to be correct.

3/ SPACs may be a good thing for pre-revenue companies or companies that have chosen to go public before they meet the more customary milestones for an IPO ($100m in ARR, for example).

4/ If these companies were to be valued based on earnings today, they would be severely undervalued. But if you look at the market caps for each of these companies, they're each being valued as if they had already realized some of their ambitious future projections.

5/ Of course, it's certainly not unusual for startups to be valued based on future revenue projections, even in a highly competitive space. But I typically see private markets put a much larger discount on these future projections than what we see with these SPACs.

6/ Let's look at the overlap (from public pitches):
* All targeting ADAS or robotaxi market as the top of one of the top revenue sources
* All include value added software for perception
* All counting on today's nascent industry adoption of LIDAR to balloon

In no order:

7/ AEVA

8/ Innoviz

9/ Ouster

10/ Velodyne

11/ Luminar

12/ What does this mean? First, I have great respect for all of these companies. They're each innovating in different ways, and competition is great for the industry. Robotaxis will have an enormous positive impact on society, so it's critical to see progress here.

13/ But we saw a consolidation / collapse of the robotaxi space over the last 24 months (down to a handful of players), and LIDAR is next. This probably means lower market caps for most of these co's, which sucks for everyone involved, but may the best product win!

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a h
@alexharfouche1

#irrationalebullience If you want to understand the nature of this asset bubble and the epic capital mis-allocation at it’s heart, look no further than rates. CB’s only tool to push an uber-levered financial system that is highly interconnected through derivatives
(1/N)

away from it’s natural convergence path towards collapse is to create opposing forces to push it towards divergence. Meaning: force, through financial repression, market participants to rely on price continuation, in a way that makes it self-fulfilling.
(2/N)

The tool used is rates as it is the basis off of which all other financial assets are priced. Today any buyer of $UST across the curve up to 30Y is guaranteed a loss given reals are negative throughout. So the only hope of escaping this GUARANTEED loss
(3/N)

is to angle for capital gains, i.e a continuous move downwards in real rates to push for some capital gains in real terms. The longer the financial repression lasts, the further investors are pushed out the maturity and credit risk curves.
(4/N)

Here are examples to understand what exactly is happening. If an investors buys a 5 Y UST he is guaranteed to lose almost 2% in real terms, so making that up in capital gains is much harder given the v short duration.
(5/N)

Ankur Warikoo
@warikoo

No one is going to do it for you

A thread...

As a founder, if you won't show up every single day, despite how you are feeling, or how the startup is doing or what the press is writing about you, or your cofounders not working out, or your product failing or your customers shouting

No one is going to do it for you

As a student, if you won't do things that scare you, that make you feel nervous, that challenge you, that intimidate you, that you have always wanted to do but never gathered the courage to

No one is going to do it for you

In your first job, if you are not going to make an effort to know how things have happened before and why, to meet new people, to seek help, to ask for feedback, to be patient with results, to not seek "impact" in the first month itself

No one is going to do it for you

If as a son/daughter you are not going to realize what your parents went through while growing up, that they want the same things from your life that you want for your self, that their path is different but there are reasons why

No one is going to do it for you

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James Hanson
@jameshanson87

$CCIV / LUCID MOTORS

DD Thread ⤵️

The $CCIV leadership team:

I will highlight who I believe are the key players.

Starting with Sir Jony Ive, who was the Chief Design Officer at Apple Inc for over 20 years. (Connections to Apple are never a bad thing..)

Andrew Leveris is the former CEO of The Dow Chemical company who also just happens to be a board member of, you guessed it - Lucid Motors, further supporting SPAC rumors.

As the former CEO of Ford, Mulally brings a wealth of motor industry experience to Churchill Capital and Lucid Motors.

Shreyas Doshi
@shreyas

If you’re a Startup trying to compete with a Megacorp—the 800-pound Gorilla in the space—you need to understand the tax inherent to being a Gorilla

And then you need to make that tax work against the Gorilla—with your product's positioning & features

A thread on Gorilla taxes👇🏾

1/
Collaboration Tax

Getting two or more product groups at a megacorp to collaborate on creating a seamless end user experience is the hardest problem in computer science.

(I am not joking)

Examples of Collaboration Tax:

Calendly exists because the Gmail team & Calendar team haven’t worked together on creating a more seamless experience for that use case.

Loom might succeed because the Gmail, Video, Meet teams at Google are probably too busy with their own goals.

The takeaway for startups:

If you can create meaningful value by seamlessly integrating features of two or more distinct Gorilla products, you will typically have a lot of runway before the Gorilla can get its act together and eliminate its Collaboration Tax.

2/
Denominator Tax

Once a Gorilla’s product reaches massive scale (i.e. the denominator for its metrics gets very large), the pressure of OKRs & incentives will often force the Gorilla’s product teams to prioritize breadth of usage more than depth of usage.

$S\u0142awomir D\u0119bski$

Sławomir Dębski...
@SlawomirDebski

There’s rumour about confidential negotiations btn the Biden admin and the German gov. Their goal: to find a way out of the mess in which the whole transatlantic community finds itself because of Merkel’s support for Putin’s pipeline—Nord Stream 2

2/ The preferred solution for the Biden team would be to deny Putin the ability to exercise energy blackmail against Central Europe and Ukraine, while at the same time foregoing sanctions against Germany.

3/ Early in his career, Biden’s Secretary of State Anthony @SecBlinken had analyzed the decision of the Reagan administration not to levy sanctions against West Europeans for building the Siberian pipeline with the Soviets.

4/ See for example:

5/ Reagan decided to take a step back, calculating that the unity of the West was more important than the gas pipeline. Not even Lady Thatcher supported Reagan’s policy.

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Алексић је жртва енглеске освете преко Оливере Иванчић .
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THREAD: 15 of the most useful razors and rules I've found.

Rules of thumb that simplify decisions.

Bezos' Razors:

• If unsure what action to take, let your 80-year-old self make it.

• If unsure who to work with, pick the person that has the best chances of breaking you out of a 3rd world prison.

Skinner's Law:

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1. Make the pain of not doing it greater than the pain of doing it.

2. Make the pleasure of doing it greater than the pleasure of not doing it.

Luck Razor:

• If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.

I used this razor to go for drinks with a stranger rather than watch Netflix.

In hindsight, it was the highest ROI decision I've ever made.

Bragging Razor:

• If someone brags about their success or happiness, assume it’s half what they claim.

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The map is not the terrain.

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Patrick McKenzie
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So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.

If everyone was holding bitcoin on the old x86 in their parents basement, we would be finding a price bottom. The problem is the risk is all pooled at a few brokerages and a network of rotten exchanges with counter party risk that makes AIG circa 2008 look like a good credit.
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The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

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SK
@sk_diary1

#DoYouKnow -The place where
Lalitha Sahasranamam -1000 names of Devi originated.

It is in Lalithambigai temple -Thirumeeyachur,Near Mayiladuthurai,TN

There is a Legend #story & it is related to this beautiful #sculpture of Kshetrapuraneswarar & Ambal Lalithambigai #Thread 👇

#Legend #story
It is believed that this is birth place of Kashyapa Maharishi’s sons, Arunan& Garudan. Arunan(charioteer of Surya)was physically handicapped.He was a Shiva devotee.Arunan wanted to visit Kailash to have Shiva Darshan,but Surya Dev denied permission.

So Arunan disguised as a girl & was on his way to Kailash.On the way Surya Dev saw this girl & outraged her modesty.Shiva was very angry with Suryan for misbehaviour & cursed him to get darkened. Whole world plunged into darkness.Surya Dev pleaded to Bhagwan Shiv to forgive him.

Shiva Bhagwan asked him to go to Thirumiyachur & worship him there. As advised, Surya Dev performed rigorous penance, placed murthi of Shiva& Parvathy on an elephant & took them to the clouds.Shiva in this temple is known as Meganathaswamy,Devi is known as Lalithambigai

Even after severe penance,Shiva does appear,so Surya Dev cries out in agony.Disturbed by his call, Parvathy protests.Siva pacifies her & offers relief to Surya Dev.The sculpture of Shiva pacifying Ambal shows her sullen from one angle &smiling from another.

$Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3$

Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5

Stories of Guruvayurappan
Shri Krishna Leela

This is a beautiful story of Guruvayurappan. Once there lived in Guruvayur a poor family. Kitta, his wife & kids were struggling for their daily needs. With only a coconut tree in house, he earned a living by selling coconuts.

Kitta was from a low caste family. He was a great devotee of Guruvayurappan. Everyday before going to work he always prayed infront of a picture of Guruvayurappan in his house. His only wish was to worship at Guruvayur & have annadanam in temple. But he was not allowed there

It was Utsavam time in Guruvayur. From far behind kitta and family worshipped Guruvayurappan. Annadanam was given daily and no one was left empty stomach. Only Kitta didn't receive. That night, it was only Kitta's family who was sleeping without food. After temple nada closed

Shri Krishna, dressed himself as a Brahmin went to temple Kitchen. He packed food and went directly to kitta's house. Reaching Kitta's house, Shri Krishna told he was sent by a cook of Guruvayur temple and gave them the food he packed. Kitta and family was very happy seeing food.

When Kitta finished his food, Brahmin asked it will be better if he get a tender coconut( karikku)to drink. Kitta climbed the tree and gave all coconuts to him. After having 1 tender coconut, the Brahmin asked to bring remaining coconuts to Guruvayur temple the next day.