@Business published an article subtitled "Inside the Brutal Realities of Supply Chain Hell”—it's getting serious.
This thread provides my (very) simple framework for understanding the key drivers:
By now, you’ve probably heard that global supply chains are in a state of disarray.
Here's a simple breakdown of what’s causing it:
@Business published an article subtitled "Inside the Brutal Realities of Supply Chain Hell”—it's getting serious.
This thread provides my (very) simple framework for understanding the key drivers:
Product delays (good luck getting appliances before 2022), product shortages (see semiconductors), port buildups (fly over LA and you'll see), and rampant freight costs (sorry, retailer margins).
It's pretty bad.
A butterfly flaps its wings in Shenzhen and impacts when I receive my bike in New York. Ok, maybe not quite, but almost...
So to understand the drivers of the crisis, we need a simple framework.
Supply here refers to everything related to manufacturing, production, and transportation.
Demand here refers to everything related to consumption.
I'll walk through each side:
Consumers are flush and not afraid to spend.
Further, lockdowns and restrictions have meant more spending on goods vs. services.
So you have a ton of demand for goods--those goods need to come from somewhere!
The major supply drivers I see here:
(1) Factory shutdowns
(2) Port shutdowns
(3) Flight reductions
(4) Container ship challenges
Hitting each one quickly:
Factories—particularly in Asia—have had a tough time managing and containing outbreaks of COVID.
This leads to delays and bottlenecks in production. If an upstream manufacturer is delayed, that impact cascades downstream and has an extensive impact.
Ports have experienced similar challenges—any have had to shut down or restrict labor to avoid outbreaks.
If ports are closed, products can't flow smoothly through the supply chain.
It's like creating a kink in a hose and watching pressure build.
It's news to most people, but about 50% of air cargo flies on passenger flights.
It's a great revenue stream for passenger airlines.
But with travel—especially international travel—reduced by COVID, there was a significant reduction in air cargo capacity.
The Ever Given clogged the Suez Canal in March, causing a backlog whose impact cascaded through global supply chains.
There aren't enough large container ships to meet all of this demand and containers are in the wrong places at the wrong times.
On one end, a structural surge in demand for goods.
On the other end, a number of significant supply challenges and disclocations.
Demand up, supply down.
For consumers, this means rising prices, as these rising supply chain costs are passed through.
Your holiday shopping may be a whole lot more expensive (and late) this year...
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Also, these articles are great:
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More from Sahil Bloom
Lifelong learning is a competitive advantage.
But contrary to what you’ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
THREAD: 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today.
Stimulate Dynamically
The mind is a muscle - it needs to be stimulated dynamically to continue to grow.
Don’t rely on one “exercise” - develop a menu of options.
Write, read, listen, watch. Solve puzzles, play games. Enjoy it!
Stimulate dynamically, learn dynamically.
Build Learning Circles
The most powerful learning is communal, not individual.
Build learning circles with other intellectually curious minds.
Engage regularly with no set intention or goal.
Community is everything. Embrace it.
Keep Asking Why
“Why?” is the most useful tool in our learning toolkit.
But somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking why and just accept “facts” as we are told them.
Reject the norm.
If you want to understand the world, take a cue from our kids - keep asking why!
Adopt a Process Orientation
Prioritize process.
Learn for the sake of learning, not always for a specific goal.
When you prioritize process, you become flexible in where you are headed.
Life is a winding, confusing journey - forward progress is all that matters.
But contrary to what you’ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
THREAD: 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today.
Stimulate Dynamically
The mind is a muscle - it needs to be stimulated dynamically to continue to grow.
Don’t rely on one “exercise” - develop a menu of options.
Write, read, listen, watch. Solve puzzles, play games. Enjoy it!
Stimulate dynamically, learn dynamically.
Build Learning Circles
The most powerful learning is communal, not individual.
Build learning circles with other intellectually curious minds.
Engage regularly with no set intention or goal.
Community is everything. Embrace it.
Keep Asking Why
“Why?” is the most useful tool in our learning toolkit.
But somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking why and just accept “facts” as we are told them.
Reject the norm.
If you want to understand the world, take a cue from our kids - keep asking why!
First principles thinking is a powerful mental model for driving non-linear outcomes. It also requires a willingness to ask difficult, uncomfortable questions.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) March 14, 2021
Here are a few to help you get started: pic.twitter.com/KyuAr7IUf7
Adopt a Process Orientation
Prioritize process.
Learn for the sake of learning, not always for a specific goal.
When you prioritize process, you become flexible in where you are headed.
Life is a winding, confusing journey - forward progress is all that matters.
Short Squeeze 101
If you follow financial markets (or if you watch Billions), you've heard the phrase "short squeeze" used quite frequently.
But what is a "short squeeze" and how does it work?
Here's Short Squeeze 101!
👇👇👇
1/ First, the basics.
The "short" in "short squeeze" refers to the concept of short selling.
The basics are covered in my thread below.
https://t.co/xecJYNCxMs
TL;DR - short selling is a way of betting against a stock - i.e. betting that its price will decline.
2/ "Short interest" is a measure of how heavily an asset is shorted by the market.
It is the total number of shares that have been sold short (borrowed and sold), but have not yet been covered (bought and returned).
It is usually measured as a % of the # of shares outstanding.
3/ A "short squeeze" occurs when a heavily-shorted asset experiences a rapid upward price movement.
When this happens, short sellers may be forced to close their short positions (i.e. buy the stock and return it to the broker), further accelerating the upward price movement.
4/ Let's look at a simple example to show this in action.
We will use Tesla, one of the most heavily-shorted stocks in the world.
Imagine the stock price is $1,000 per share. This seems crazy. Ricky Rational decides to short the stock at this level.
If you follow financial markets (or if you watch Billions), you've heard the phrase "short squeeze" used quite frequently.
But what is a "short squeeze" and how does it work?
Here's Short Squeeze 101!
👇👇👇
1/ First, the basics.
The "short" in "short squeeze" refers to the concept of short selling.
The basics are covered in my thread below.
https://t.co/xecJYNCxMs
TL;DR - short selling is a way of betting against a stock - i.e. betting that its price will decline.
1/ Short Selling 101
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) July 6, 2020
With the markets continuing to rally, there has been more talk of \u201cshorting\u201d or \u201cshort selling\u201d stocks.
But what does that mean and how does it work?
Here\u2019s a quick educational primer: Short Selling 101 pic.twitter.com/JTrJmuY7fI
2/ "Short interest" is a measure of how heavily an asset is shorted by the market.
It is the total number of shares that have been sold short (borrowed and sold), but have not yet been covered (bought and returned).
It is usually measured as a % of the # of shares outstanding.
3/ A "short squeeze" occurs when a heavily-shorted asset experiences a rapid upward price movement.
When this happens, short sellers may be forced to close their short positions (i.e. buy the stock and return it to the broker), further accelerating the upward price movement.
4/ Let's look at a simple example to show this in action.
We will use Tesla, one of the most heavily-shorted stocks in the world.
Imagine the stock price is $1,000 per share. This seems crazy. Ricky Rational decides to short the stock at this level.
Shared a lot of wins publicly in 2021, so it feels appropriate to share the losses just as publicly.
Here are my 10 biggest Ls from 2021 (and what I learned from each one):
Dopamine Addiction
Humans were not made for social media—the dopamine hits are dangerous.
I fell victim.
On several occasions, I found myself constantly refreshing my notifications on a viral thread.
It was gross.
I’m learning to physically force separation to avoid it.
Hustle Culture Fail
I spent the better part of the last decade as a hustle culture aficionado.
Then I burned myself out and was totally incapable of thinking creatively.
I made a change. Now I:
• Work like a lion
• Sleep 8 hours
• Take more walks
My life & work have 10Xed.
Solana Fail
I invested in Solana early and was riding high when it hit $30+ in April—10X+ on my investment.
I sold it and thought I was the next Warren Buffett.
Then it hit $100, $200, & $250—as I stubbornly sat on the sidelines refusing to re-enter.
I am not Warren Buffett.
The Hedonic Treadmill
I tweeted this in May—and then failed to practice what I preached.
Every win felt a bit less exciting. It’s part of our biology, but it was no way to live.
Measure internally, not externally.
Here are my 10 biggest Ls from 2021 (and what I learned from each one):
Dopamine Addiction
Humans were not made for social media—the dopamine hits are dangerous.
I fell victim.
On several occasions, I found myself constantly refreshing my notifications on a viral thread.
It was gross.
I’m learning to physically force separation to avoid it.
Hustle Culture Fail
I spent the better part of the last decade as a hustle culture aficionado.
Then I burned myself out and was totally incapable of thinking creatively.
I made a change. Now I:
• Work like a lion
• Sleep 8 hours
• Take more walks
My life & work have 10Xed.
Solana Fail
I invested in Solana early and was riding high when it hit $30+ in April—10X+ on my investment.
I sold it and thought I was the next Warren Buffett.
Then it hit $100, $200, & $250—as I stubbornly sat on the sidelines refusing to re-enter.
I am not Warren Buffett.
The Hedonic Treadmill
I tweeted this in May—and then failed to practice what I preached.
Every win felt a bit less exciting. It’s part of our biology, but it was no way to live.
Measure internally, not externally.
The Hedonic Treadmill is real.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) May 21, 2021
Humans have a tendency to quickly return to a baseline level of happiness after positive events.
Step off the treadmill.
Focus on increasing your happiness baseline, not on the height or frequency of the spikes above it.
More from Business
Former CEO and future former Chairman of ATT RandaII Stephenson fun facts:
>>was chairman of Boy Scouts of America
>>was mentored by CarIos SIim
>>subsequently promoted to CFO of “southwestern bell company” (former name of ATT)
>>quickly resolved $30B in debt
>>is on CFR
😲
https://t.co/wWjV2t3bVB
And he worked for Bush telecoms ? Damn. This is a jackpot
I’m guessing This expIosion wasn’t just some expIosion
https://t.co/s0i05aaWXt
Silver lake
Silver Lake Senior Leadership
https://t.co/YLaUtP8lQa
>>was chairman of Boy Scouts of America
>>was mentored by CarIos SIim
>>subsequently promoted to CFO of “southwestern bell company” (former name of ATT)
>>quickly resolved $30B in debt
>>is on CFR
😲
https://t.co/wWjV2t3bVB
And he worked for Bush telecoms ? Damn. This is a jackpot
I’m guessing This expIosion wasn’t just some expIosion
https://t.co/s0i05aaWXt
Silver lake
Silver Lake Senior Leadership
https://t.co/YLaUtP8lQa
This is a GREAT argument to pull up when talking to people about minimum wage. Some others nested below
A large number of new jobs being created are minimum to low wage, so looking for a new job generally won’t increase pay.
Raising minimum wage helps things not directly related.
Helps Infant mortality? Yup.
Lowers Suicide? Yup.
Reduce smoking rates? You bet.
It also boosts the local economy! Minimum to low wage earners spend more % of their money, so an increase means more is spent, often in community!
Low paying jobs are often in sectors which would gain from this. More people spending money in your shop makes your business more money! Now you have more profits and increased labor costs are covered.
"it doesn't affect me if companies pay low wages"
— Dan Price (@DanPriceSeattle) February 11, 2021
In reality, you're paying for it. Over 50% of people on food stamps are actively working. The leading employers are Walmart, McDonald's and Amazon.
As taxpayers, you're subsidizing corporations to pay literal poverty wages.
A large number of new jobs being created are minimum to low wage, so looking for a new job generally won’t increase pay.
Raising minimum wage helps things not directly related.
Helps Infant mortality? Yup.
Lowers Suicide? Yup.
Reduce smoking rates? You bet.
It also boosts the local economy! Minimum to low wage earners spend more % of their money, so an increase means more is spent, often in community!
Low paying jobs are often in sectors which would gain from this. More people spending money in your shop makes your business more money! Now you have more profits and increased labor costs are covered.
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Speech Delay is most common in children nowadays
In ancient times, our grandparents used to follow typical natural way of caring the needs of a child. All they used were more of natural products than chemical based for the growth of child.
One of major step followed was to feed Gurbach Jadd/ Vasa Kommu/ Acorus Calamus for initiating good speech ability in a child. This stem was needed to babies on Tuesdays and Sundays in mother's milk.
Vasa is feed to baby after the 1st bath on 12th day in week. Weekly only thrice it is fed and named as :
Budhwar - Budhi Vasa
Mangalwar - Vaak Vasa
Ravi Vaar - Aayush Vasa
This stem is burnt and rubbed against the grinding stone in mother's milk or warm water to get a paste
The procedure to make it is in the link
https://t.co/uo4sGp7mUm
It should not be given daily to the child. Other main benefits are
1. It clears the phlegm in child's throat caused due to continuous milk intake. It clears the tracts and breathing is effortless.
2. Digestion
For children who haven't got their speech and is delayed than usual should feed this vasa on these days in week atleast for 6months. Don't get carried away with this dialogue
"Some gain speech little late"
In ancient times, our grandparents used to follow typical natural way of caring the needs of a child. All they used were more of natural products than chemical based for the growth of child.
One of major step followed was to feed Gurbach Jadd/ Vasa Kommu/ Acorus Calamus for initiating good speech ability in a child. This stem was needed to babies on Tuesdays and Sundays in mother's milk.
Vasa is feed to baby after the 1st bath on 12th day in week. Weekly only thrice it is fed and named as :
Budhwar - Budhi Vasa
Mangalwar - Vaak Vasa
Ravi Vaar - Aayush Vasa
This stem is burnt and rubbed against the grinding stone in mother's milk or warm water to get a paste
The procedure to make it is in the link
https://t.co/uo4sGp7mUm
It should not be given daily to the child. Other main benefits are
1. It clears the phlegm in child's throat caused due to continuous milk intake. It clears the tracts and breathing is effortless.
2. Digestion
For children who haven't got their speech and is delayed than usual should feed this vasa on these days in week atleast for 6months. Don't get carried away with this dialogue
"Some gain speech little late"