BC BREXIT
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

Brexit also brings UK pork sector to standstill. Surprise eh? @RichardAENorth 🙄
UK pork processors are experiencing significant issues in exporting products to the EU, which has already brought part of the industry to a complete standstill, risking knock-on impacts on farm.

 The widely seen footage of overzealous Dutch (*my edit: "no they were not"*) inspection officials confiscating ham sandwiches transported by British hauliers is just the tip of the iceberg as far as the UK pig sector is concerned.
The NPA’s processor members have reported that
excessive (*my edit: only for non-EU members*) bureaucracy associated with paperwork requirements are causing delays at Dover, Calais and other ports. With pork being a perishable product, these delays are making UK shipments unattractive to buyers in the EU, forcing processors
to reject shipments and cancel future orders.
Despite the trade deal agreed between the EU & UK just before Christmas, the UK’s formal departure from the EU Customs Union and Single Market was always going to mean additional checks, new labelling and certification requirements
and delays at ports. While the full overall impact of the new rules is yet to be felt, as UK export volumes remain lower than normal for the time of year, the UK pig sector is already feeling the effect. Processors have reported a number of issues, including:
• Officials at ports in the UK, France, Ireland and the Netherlands are taking a far more stringent approach to assessing paperwork, which in itself appears to be excessive. (welcome to 3rd country status)
One load was caught at Calais for 20 hours undergoing vet checks and then
rejected upon finally reaching its destination in Germany because of the delay.
• Additional paperwork is causing major delays for processors – one processor said it took nine hours to prepare the paperwork for one shipment to the EU last week.
• Another processor reported that when sending product to the Netherlands, each Export Health Certificate (EHC) needed 12 stamps for the English, Dutch and French versions required in duplicate.
Therefore, for a 15 tonne load, the vet had to stamp paperwork 72 times.
There is no electronic option at present – all EHCs have to be in hard copy
• Another processor reported that as we are now a 3rd country, new rules require inspectors to check labels on each box in a consignment of pork products meaning that the whole pallet has to be offloaded
and broken apart to check the boxes in the middle, adding more time to the process.
• The Eurotunnel needs to process 500 lorries an hour but only has the veterinary capacity for 150 an hour which will slow things down even more.
• The administrative burden of EHCs means that
vets are struggling to meet the demand and the costs for exporters have increased.
“We are seeing a bureaucracy overload and it is already having a big impact on the pig sector,” NPA chief executive Zoe Davies said.
“This is partly an inevitable consequence of Brexit –
we always knew it would mean more red tape, checks and delays. But there is a political element, too. Why are 30% of all UK consignments to the EU are being checked? This is far more than many other 3rd Country exporters to the EU - for New Zealand, for example, the figure is 1%
(*my edit: yes that's because of the *negotiated* deal and the fact NZ is not wanting the right to *diverge* on standards. It's not fekking hard to understand surely?*)

Dr Davies explained that the delays were forcing processors to cancel some shipments, with
the cull sow trade particularly badly hit. Processors are currently wary of sending shipments out in case they are rejected due to deterioration of product following severe delays. “The concern is that the situation is only going to get worse as export volumes increase over ...
he coming weeks, putting more pressure on a system that is already buckling,” Dr Davies added.
“For the pig sector, this comes on top of an already very difficult situation with processing plants hit by COVID-19 outbreaks and therefore unable to process pigs at the usual rate,
meaning pigs are already staying on farms longer than they otherwise would.”
In the first 10 months of 2020, the UK exported more than 180,000 tonnes of pork to the EU, a vitally important trade for the sector accounting for 44% of UK pork exports.
“If this trade grinds to a standstill, on top of the COVID issues, we are going to see some serious problems across the sector,” Dr Davies said.
“The Government does not appear to think there is a problem. The clear message we are receiving from our processors is that there is –
and we want to see some concerted action and political will to speed the processes up on both sides, with greater priority given to perishable products, such as pork.”
While UK products going to the EU are subject to additional checks, the same rules won’t be applied to products
coming the other way for some time, as the UK is phasing in its checks. (*my edit: because HMG knows it does not have the capacity do so. More peak chaos coming around 1/4 and esp around 1/7*)
“While this delay is convenient for a Government that wants to ensure there are no
empty shelves in supermarkets, UK producers are being placed at a huge disadvantage and we have absolutely no leverage to convince the EU to change their position.
“It is clear that the Commission wishes to make Brexit as painful and as messy as possible to prevent any other
country from following suit, so we have very little hope of improving things. (**My edit: The Commision is there to protect the better interests of member states over *competitor* non-member states..& to appy 3rd country rules consistently Why *is* this so hard to understand??**)
“The Government needs to accept we have a situation here that needs to be resolved, and quickly,” Dr Davies added.

*My edit: None of above should be a surprise as the rules are not "new" but *existing* rules for non SM/CU members... just needed to study *these* non-member rules
adding further weight to the realisation that most of the UK somehow rather idiotically/unforgiveably throught the "deal" (any FTA) was going to match that of SM/CU membership*

Extra popcorn supplies will be purchased 😬

More from Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧

Michael M. \U0001f1e8\U0001f1ed\U0001f1f3\U0001f1f4\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f8\U0001f1f1\U0001f1ee\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧...
@vivamjm
H/T @PatHarrison2
A decent report from the NY Times...
"As the new year made Brexit a reality, Tony Hale encountered the pitfalls of Europe’s redrawn geography. Specifically, he confronted the need to extricate 53 tons of rotting pork products from administrative purgatory

a port in the Netherlands.
For more than two decades, Mr. Hale’s company had shipped pork to the European Union without customs checks, as if the United Kingdom and the continent across the water were one vast country.

With Britain now legally outside the bloc,

exporters suddenly had to navigate inspections, safety regulations & a bewildering crush of paperwork.
For Mr. Hale, incorrectly prepared documents meant sending five containers full of pork to an unplanned final destination : the incinerator.
“It’s a new game,& we have to learn”

Mr. Hale said. “We are having to double- and triple-check every document.”
In the early days of the post-Brexit era, Britain is struggling to adapt to its new position in the global economy — its fortunes still tethered to the European Union; its companies now on the outside.

The trade deal Britain struck late last year with the European Union stopped tariffs from being imposed on goods exchanged across the English Channel, but did not prevent the revival of customs procedures, health and safety checks, value-added taxes on imports, and other
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Michael M. \U0001f1e8\U0001f1ed\U0001f1f3\U0001f1f4\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f8\U0001f1f1\U0001f1ee\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧...
@vivamjm
FELIXSTOWE, England (Reuters) -

In just one month of post-Brexit trading, British logistics expert Jon Swallow has seen exports dive, prices rise and customers so desperate that he is practically offering a counselling service.

Swallow is one of thousands of freight forwarders and customs brokers based around Britain’s biggest ports who have described the overnight introduction of a full customs border as akin to the country placing economic sanctions on itself.

Britain’s New Year’s Eve departure from the European Union’s orbit after 47 years of membership means exporters must now provide customs and safety declarations, health checks and rules of origin details to trade with its biggest partner.

We are now at a disadvantage to people trading within the EU,” Swallow, a co-director of Jordon Freight, told Reuters in his office next to the vast cranes that tower over Felixstowe docks, Britain’s biggest container port, on the south east coast of England.

“We’re a very fast-paced business, but now we’re just like walking through mud. There’s just paperwork everywhere.”
Those companies that trade goods between Britain and the bloc are paying a price, particularly small firms.
BREXIT
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Michael M. \U0001f1e8\U0001f1ed\U0001f1f3\U0001f1f4\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f8\U0001f1f1\U0001f1ee\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧...
@vivamjm
Whatever the analyses, I'll never understand the efforts, taxpayers money & substantial pain to come to make the disunited or broken apart UK, face so many more difficulties in trading with its neighbours; even within its own territory & to be so much poorer & less secure

with fewer rights for Brits in their own country & across the EU/EEA.
And that there is not a lot more official opposition/media attention & anger about it
.
Even more so when I read the following from 2010 by the "Taxpayers Alliance"

@bakerstherald Thanks for bringing this to my attention when the MSM - for whatever reason - is so noticably reticent to expose these would be quickly evolving (sounds better/less sinister)


From 2010
"As long as anyone can remember, Britain's old industrial heartlands have been a disaster area. Once they'd lost their traditional industries like steel and shipbuilding, something very bad happened to them - they seemed to lose the will to live. And as we've blogged

many times (eg here), despite decades of political promises and billions of tax-funded support, they have never managed to leave the high dependency unit. For example, when last sighted - in 2007-08 at the height of the biggest economic boom the world has ever seen -
GOVERNMENT
Michael M. \U0001f1e8\U0001f1ed\U0001f1f3\U0001f1f4\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f8\U0001f1f1\U0001f1ee\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧...
@vivamjm
TRAGIC..
"And so it came to pass that alleged Prime Minister Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson travelled to Brussels to personally take charge of the Brexit trade deal negotiations. He alone could break the deadlock, put the dastardly Eurocrats in their place and snatch victory
BREXIT
Michael M. \U0001f1e8\U0001f1ed\U0001f1f3\U0001f1f4\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f8\U0001f1f1\U0001f1ee\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧...
@vivamjm
Public notice from Hannants: UK's biggest model kit & accessories supplier

"There are still problems with sending parcels to the EU. To date only 3 parcels we sent have been delivered. Some are still in England. Some are in europe. We cannot find out what the problems are but .

suspect it is incorrect paperwork.
We are very sorry but we cannot start taking orders knowing that these problems exist. We are going to have to wait longer before we can re-open for EU orders but we cannot say when that will be. We cannot feed 100s of orders a day into a system

that is not working knowing they may not go anywhere.
Also bizarrely the new Royal Mail system can only accept parcels with 20 items or less in them. More than half the orders we send have more than 21 items in them. Parcelforce can take packages with any quantity of contents.

So somehow our website now needs to be modified so that if customer wants 20 items they see the Royal Mail/Parcelforce postage options but if there are more than 20 items they only get the Parcelforce option. We do not want to start work on that change at the moment.

We are no longer able to reply to emails asking when we will be opening up for EU orders. We are sorry but we do not know and we have no way to find out. Please see the message on the home page for the latest information.
DPD is still a problem and there has been little progress.
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David Henig
David Henig
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Brexit. UK-EU talks. Let's try to explain why we're in such a state, of increased risk of no deal, moving away from the fish and playing fields which are the detail but not the answer, to differing philosophies and divorce parallels that might just help... 1/

First, with apologies to those concerned, we need to go beyond those saying this is the inevitable path to deal / no-deal. Half of them will be right and I'll definitely be wrong (don't worry, I'm hedged in wine bets), but it wasn't inevitable, typical, or necessary. 2/

I'll also ignore the content of any deal, which has been clear for months, the UK compromises on level playing field, the EU on fish. Something so obvious really isn't the fundamental issue. Could, as some not noted for their perspicacity have said, be done in an afternoon. 3/

Some truth in the idea that flounces and playing the tough cop are a part of trade negotiations. But equally as we're in about the 5th pass of these, I think it has ceased to be helpful. Either side could already have cut the deal having shown their toughness. 4/

Some fundamentals then, that we've forgotten. First, the trade deal that will lead to much less free trade than before. The incentive structures, the ability to create a win-win, are inevitably going to be different to a normal deal. 5/
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Anton Spisak
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@AntonSpisak
Amid all the announcements today, it's easy to overlook that the OBR has updated its scenario on a no-deal Brexit. It exposes an undeniably hard reality for the Govt that claims that the UK would "prosper mightily" under no-deal next year.

(Short thread)

1. Key chart: a no-deal/WTO/Australia-style Brexit would delay the point at which econ output regains its pre-virus peak by "almost a year to the third quarter of 2023."

In the upside scenario, this cross-over point could be at the start of 2022; in the downside, in 2025. Grim.


2. Next year, a no deal Brexit would reduce real GDP by around a further 2% - as a result of immediate disruption to the border and uncertainty facing businesses. That's on top of the Covid-related contraction.


3. While there's some short-term border disruption, most of the costs come in the medium term: from lost employment; productivity losses; lower business investment.

Exactly the opposite of what the Chancellor said to @AndrewMarr9 on Sunday.

4. Underneath these numbers, output would fall *below* the Covid levels for several key sectors: Manufacturing, professional services, financial services, retail, energy.

All trade intensive sectors that have been spared the same drop in output as the non-tradables this year.
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Chris Randone
Chris Randone
@ChrisRandone
Many bearish sentiments across the mortgage sector because they believe companies won't succeed as much when rate finally go back up (3 maybe 4 years from now). Which makes sense except for $GHIV and here's why. In 2016 Brexit came & rates went down which lead to huge success...

in mortgages. Business was great for many companies but then in ‘17 and ‘18, rates went up. What happened you might ask? A lot of people got compressed, margins got compressed, rates went down, & people struggled in the mortgage market...

Well UWM ( $GHIV ) compound annual growth rate, from ‘16 to ’18, was 28%. Companies that focused on refi struggled, so obviously a very successful company like Rocket or Quicken, they went down 14% in compound annual growth rate in those years...

$GHIV actually grew, and so did their profits, so the opportunity to continue to grow in all cycles is a big differentiator for UWM, and the broker channel versus a lot of our competitors. When rates rise, it's actually even better for $GHIV (UWM)..

If rates stay low, great UWM will continue to crush but when the rates rise, they will continue to steal even more market share because of how they operate in the mortgage sector. People also talk about the speed in closing a loan & that other competitors are faster...
BREXIT
Shane Brennan
Shane Brennan
@ColdChainShane
End of week 2 thread on post Brexit food trade

There is continued growing unease. The main picture remains one of depressed/tentative trade (c50% down y-o-y) and some high profile logistics business have taken the rational step to stop and regroup.

The big worry here is that ‘not-trading’becomes a habit. We can’t/won’t carry on at half the volumes of before, but as volumes claw back we may only reach something like 80% of previous volumes and that is a disaster for a food industry already battered by a recession.

Lots of focus has been on the idea of EU businesses stopping serving the UK. Worries about how we feed ourselves has trumped worry about our exporters at every stage. Even though it is the collapse of our export businesses that is (and has always been) the greater threat.

To reassure the mainland British shopper that feels like less of a risk. UK is a large market of wealthy consumers, and UK gov has shown it will do anything (however unfair) to ensure stuff gets in - even letting supermarkets have access to the fast track lane to Dover.


I am not as close to this but it feels like shortage on the shelves is more of a genuine immediate threat for the island of Ireland. The types of innovative solutions we have discussed this week can help but will they come in quick enough?
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Small business in particular struggling with new Brexit red tape. Entirely predictable, and a function of a world trade system distorted against smaller traders. Stay with me a short while as Brexit threadmeister and story author @pmdfoster may say... 1/

The nub of the issue is the extra costs for most exports, whether this is paperwork or meeting different regulatory requirements. A fixed cost per exported load inevitably adds a higher percentage cost to small than larger business... and they may lack expertise. 2/


You'll note that in the EU, with virtually no paperwork or differing regulations, the costs of exports are similar for smaller and large companies - though even there there is a big company bias, because who can afford to lobby for friendly regulations? 3/

The same unfortunately typically applies to trade deals. If you are Nissan and threaten to leave the country without the right deal you have more clout than a small cheesemaker. As we see. But is it just the EU that is over-bureaucratic? Sadly not... 4/


One of the best UK business groups on trade policy @BritAmBusiness (and yes you can quote me @EmanueAdam) has a new report out on a UK-US trade deal and SMEs. It shows opportunities. But unfortunately problems unlikely to be solved. 5/
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Maharaj Dahir of Sindh👇

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