BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

"The tangible benefits of #Brexit." A thread.

For the EU, the tangible benefits of Brexit have been immense. Not just in the way it has galvanised support for the EU across the bloc, but in the way that the UK has made itself...

/1

 ...the least competitive advanced economy in the world. Don't forget -- we're no longer a trading partner of the EU, but its main trading rival, and considering both their population and economy is 7x bigger than ours, we don't stand a chance.

/2
(Remember Boris Johnson's famous mutterings about business...? Something that could only have been said by a man born into fabulous wealth and privilege...)

/3
But the big win for the EU has been in the sheer, gob-smacking, eye-watering amount of assets that have been stripped from the UK and moved to banks and financial institutions in Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt etc.

$1.6 trillion as of October this year.

That is an INSANE amount.

/4
I'll try to put it into perspective: $1.6 trillion is over half our entire GDP. It's 1/64th of the WORLD'S entire GDP. If you stacked it up in $100 bills, it would reach FOUR TIMES the height of the International Space Station.

/5
All gone. Handed over to the EU! I mean, cards on the table, I'd have much rather have stayed in the EU, but I don't love our European friends and neighbours *that* much!

https://t.co/6bOSSVJM4C

/6
And before somebody says "money moves all the time"... not like this -- Barclays had to go to the High Court to shift their €190 billion of assets from London to Dublin. That's over 100 times more than what the UK's entire fishing industry is worth.

/7
And that's just one financial institution.

(This matter doesn't get much coverage by Britain's Brexit press... I wonder why...)

For the UK, the tangible benefits of Brexit have shockingly few and far between.

/8
Making our own trade deals with "the rest of the world" sounds great on the surface, but dig a little deeper and you'll see we only really make goods and services for affluent people, and the developing world, God love it, just isn't that affluent.

/9
The IMF lists just 39 nations with an "advanced economy" on their website. 30 of them are in Europe. Of the nine that remain, there are none in the whole of Africa, Latin America or the Caribbean. There are only five in the whole of Asia & the EU already has deals with them.

/10
Many of the countries we're actively seeking new trade deals with are countries that we give aid money to. It's a bit like running a charity shop where your only customers are the people that require the charity.

/11
Furthermore, Scotland (62% Remain) is eyeing the door and the border down the Irish Sea has been a huge psychological blow to Unionists in Northern Ireland... expect to see a border poll sooner rather than later.

/12
No serious commentator believes the UK will survive to the end of the decade, so unless you regard the break up of our 313 year Union as a benefit, I feel most Brits will be sorely disappointed by how things play out.

/13
But for the privately-educated millionaires who pushed this on us: Cummings, Farage, Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg etc... they'll be laughing all the way to the bank. Disaster capitalism has never been so profitable... no advanced economy has ever been so potty as to try it.

/14

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EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has briefed Europe Ministers from EU member states that progress continues to be made in negotiations with the UK but not significantly when it comes to key sticking points: level playing field, fish, governance of deal /1

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Peter Foster
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It's OUT! My latest #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - examining @BorisJohnson
"buy now, pay later" Northern Ireland Protocol, why the EU-UK trust deficit is killing it, how that can be restored - because it needs to work. /1

@BorisJohnson The danger here is that lingering animus over the opportunistic nature Johnson's Faustian bargain - dividing his Kingdom in order to 'get #Brexit done' and win an 80-seat majority - is clouding judgement on both sides of the Channel /2

@BorisJohnson The facts of the Protocol are no less true for Johnson's constant denial of them - that there would be checks, that there really is a trade border that now prevents plants and pets from travelling freely from Bedford to Ballymena as M.Gove reminds us. But these are other facts/3

@BorisJohnson Firstly, NI remains part of UK, even if it is now has EU customs rules.

Secondly, NI remains politically divided and fragile; the Good Friday Agreement is a constant work in progress.

Thirdly, both the EU and the UK agreed to this unsatisfactory arrangement jointly. /4

@BorisJohnson Fourthly, therefore, they have a joint responsibility to make it work because

Fifthly - and most importantly — there is no alternative to it. /5
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Shane Brennan
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End of week 2 thread on post Brexit food trade

There is continued growing unease. The main picture remains one of depressed/tentative trade (c50% down y-o-y) and some high profile logistics business have taken the rational step to stop and regroup.

The big worry here is that ‘not-trading’becomes a habit. We can’t/won’t carry on at half the volumes of before, but as volumes claw back we may only reach something like 80% of previous volumes and that is a disaster for a food industry already battered by a recession.

Lots of focus has been on the idea of EU businesses stopping serving the UK. Worries about how we feed ourselves has trumped worry about our exporters at every stage. Even though it is the collapse of our export businesses that is (and has always been) the greater threat.

To reassure the mainland British shopper that feels like less of a risk. UK is a large market of wealthy consumers, and UK gov has shown it will do anything (however unfair) to ensure stuff gets in - even letting supermarkets have access to the fast track lane to Dover.


I am not as close to this but it feels like shortage on the shelves is more of a genuine immediate threat for the island of Ireland. The types of innovative solutions we have discussed this week can help but will they come in quick enough?
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