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As #brexit talks drift towards the rocks, trade groups say plans for Irish Sea trade border after Brexit are ‘in a mess’ via, my latest via @FT ...this is an issue coming deal or no deal. Stay with me 1/

 @FT So to recap, under Northern Ireland protocol negotiated in the Withdrawal Agreement all goods going from Great Britain to NI must confirm with EU customs code. To avoid new border in Ireland, that means trade border in Irish Sea - new paperwork, new systems. Operational Jan 1/2
@FT The problem is that because the FTA negotiations are stuck, the negotiations in the Joint Committee on how to implement the Protoocl (and @michaelgove is with @MarosSefcovic talking today) haven't yet born fruit. That means a LOT of uncertainty. /3
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic How much uncertainty? Well, as @MichaelAodhan tells me, a lot. Research by the Northern Ireland Business Brexit Working Group (NIBBWG) found only 20% of members were ready. And its not their fault: need info on tarifs, computer systems etc. And are not getting answers /3
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan Now. The Government has earmarked £200m for the Trade Support Service run by Fujitsu and the Customs Clearance Consortium with @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 to help business process new paperwork...BUT even it cannot answer lots of Qs, and won't help with animal/SPS issues. /4
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 So. Take a look a this presentation by @ShankerASingham and TSS to @ManufacturingNI members last week....as M'fing NI boss Stephen Kelly tells me, his members just aren't clear what they need to do. This isn't necessarily anyone's fault... /5

https://t.co/vSgU5LlZ31
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI The problem is a lack of information because of constraints noted above...and which biz groups have been screaming at the government about. Take this letter from the NI Meat Exporters Association last week...which says they can't ready - deal or no deal. /6
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI Because this is about real-world processes. Companies registering with the TSS, creating cleanses 'master data' sets and then interfacing with the govts CDS customs systems - which they have to do via TSS because it seems software interfaces aren't ready for others /7
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI If you look at the timelines on this NIMEA letter you can see how constrained the situation is - and why there is going to have to be some flexibility on both sides come January 1. Some form of phasing in or implementation period /8
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI The government has indicated it will take a "light touch" approach to the new enforcements...but for hauliers and shippers a 'nod and a wink' approach is a very difficult way to do business. Do you just take your chances at the border? /9
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI Because as @RHARichardB explains, supply chains work (particularly in food/supermarkets) on the basis that you DO catch that boat, because if you don't your perishable goods aren't going to be on the supermarket shelves on time. /10
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB Hauliers I'm talking to are shocked by the level of detail they are being asked for as part of the TSS service (basically everything about a customs code) which a lot are not equipped to provide.

At the same time Defra is unable to answer basic questions..../11
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB So for example "groupage". Simply. I go pick up a load of lamb, beef and chicken from three distro point. I get an export health cert for the lamb. Arrive at second stop. Then seal is 'broken', so how do I certify the lamb again - make sure it wasn't tampered with etc. /12
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB And then the same process with the chicken...

Leaving aside how chicken currently in cold storage will get a health certificate which it will need after Jan 1 if going to NI...but didn't when it was delivered?

It can be make to work, but its complex and needs time /13
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB The gov is trying best to negotiation a Retail Movement System simplification that will push checks to warehouse and create, for example a month-long validity 'conformity certificate' for meat products...but that wont help wholesalers or anyone shipping inputs/14
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB The point is that even as we do get clarity of which goods are 'at risk' of going into EU single market, business will need time to adjust.

Negotiatiors on both sides say a one-year 'implementation' period won't happen...but there will need to be flexibility /15
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB The TSS - which is offering inflated customs intermediary salaries of £40k+, compared to £25k - is also going to be put to the test in the coming months as it tries to process the movements of operators who are highly inexperienced in doing all this /16
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB And whatever happens with the deal, BOTH sides have a responsibility to the Good Friday Agreement and Northern Ireland to make this work in a way that doesn't make NI consumers & businesses pay too high a price for an "English" #Brexit - which is how some will present it /17
@FT @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 @ManufacturingNI @RHARichardB There is a LOT of frustration and finger-waving going on out there at the moment (totally understandably) but there is a huge mutual interest - for the UK's Union and the EU's Union, which of course includes Ireland, to get this right. ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
It's OUT! The first #Brexit Briefing of 2021...which explores how unrealistic some industry expectations are about 'fixes' to the current deal, now the penny is dropping about what it means for supply chains and UK position vis-a-vis EU

So take the example this week, where the @Foodanddrinkfed raised the issue that UK-hubs for food and drink were "unworkable" since goods that came in from the EU were attracting full tariffs when the were spun back into Ireland or other EU members /2



They were backed by other EU associations - and both said they would lobby UK govt and @EU_Commission to 'fix' what they presumed was an "unintended consequence" of the deal....except that both EU officials and UK govt have basically shrugged. The deal is the deal. /3

@EU_Commission This is in no way confined to food industry - clothes and retailers are also hard-hit.

But lots of industry has wrongly bet that 'common sense' and 'self interest' would prevail once the nasty negotiations phase was out the way...but that's not the signal being sent. /4

As one EU official puts it: “You can’t expect the UK to remain the food import hub for the EU. It’s not sustainable, and makes no sense in the mid-to-longer run." And that applies to financial services, clothing, retail goods....a bureaucratic curtain has descended. /4
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW: 🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🚛🚚🍤🐟🚢🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨 Building of Brexit border posts faces delays via...industry calling for delay to July 1 U.K. #brexit border roll out - my latest via ⁦@FinancialTimes⁩

This goes back to last year, when UK gov got £430m of bids for new Border Control Posts and only funded £194m worth - and those bids that won took a 33pc 'haircut'. Result, everyone unhappy - those that got nothing, and those that won, got not enough

The result is that ports looking to build BCPs to accommodate new border coming in from July 1 say they haven't got enough money. They want either delays to border on July 1, or flexible implementation. /3

So as @timgmorris of @UKMajorPorts group tells me: “We need urgent action from the government to show flexibility either on the July 1 deadline or what is required on that date....or accept potentially serious implications for traffic flows this summer." /4

@timgmorris @UKMajorPorts As @richard_bpa of @britishports says “There is now a real danger that customs infrastructure won’t be ready by July in some ports and we’re urging ministers to take a pragmatic approach to ensure that goods can continue moving at those locations,” /5
BREXIT
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
BREAK: The UK drops all its 'law breaking' clauses - including plans for more in forthcoming taxation bill - after @michaelgove
and @MarosSefcovic agree deal on terms of implementing Northern Irish Protocol. 1/

https://t.co/MdBbcI8vjd


@MarosSefcovic This is obviously very good news - recalling that it relates to the implementation of last autumn's deal to allow #Brexit to happen without returning a trade border to island of Ireland...but leaving one in the Irish Sea. /2

@MarosSefcovic The statement says that the two sides have determined "criteria for goods to be considered 'not at risk' of entering the EU" - though the extent to which goods pay tariffs UK-EU will depend on whether we get an FTA with the EU. (Even if we do, some still will) /3

@MarosSefcovic The two sides have also agreed on the 'reachback' of Article 10 or the "application of State aid under the terms of the Protocol" which the UK govt feared could be used to constrain UK govt subsidy decisions after January 1 /4

@MarosSefcovic This was because EU state aid law applied to UK in respect of NI Goods - so risk of 'catching' a UK decision to, say, give a bank a tax break if it had NI Clients...thereby blowing hole in @BorisJohnson 'sovereign' Brexit. An understanding has been reached here. /5
TAXATION BILL
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So. The hunt is on in Whitehall for #brexit dividends...to show some clear value in the freedoms given by Brexit.

As we report today one area being looked at is workers' rights...but it is politically difficult territory.

No cabinet decisions have been taken, but per sources, three potential areas been identified in Business Dept...

- the 48 Hour Week
- holiday pay/overtime calculations
- new EU rules on reporting hours worked...

All potentially possible post #brexit /2

The government says it has no intention of “lowering” workers’ rights....and notes that UK has actually gold-plated many EU regulations...BUT (think of government saying it won't "lower" animal welfare standards)...the devil will all be in the detail, if and when it comes /3

So the government likes to talk about ensuring workers’ rights are protected but ALSO making sure businesses has freedoms and flexibility to grow...so one man's reduction in rights is another freedom to get richer/work harder/be more prosperous. It depends how you sell it. /4

So take this 2017 story from The Sun on the cash bonanza that will be rained down on hardworking families by Brexiteers' (long standing) desire to scrap the 48-hour week. Overtime booooom..../5

https://t.co/QLqQ7rCzkv
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🚨🚨🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🚛🚒🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨🚨 serious #brexit story alert - companies now starting to see penny drop on what rules of origin does to supply chains (food for example) but Brussels seems deaf to both EU & U.K. pleading. A bellwether? 😬 Stay with me. 1/


So first the problem: its a tad complicated but basically goods that are imported into UK and then 'hubbed' onwards into Ireland or other parts of the EU are facing full EU tariffs - this is particularly bad for food stuffs, which attract high tariffs. Why is this? /2

It's a function of the Rules of Origin clauses that mean that goods have to sufficiently "originate" in the UK to qualify for zero-tariff entry to EU (and vice versa).

But to qualify, you have to do something to the goods - process them or add value - not just punt them on /3

The brilliant @AnnaJerzewska does a better job than me of explaining, but the important thing is that this is a nightmare for companies that 'hub' /distribute products through the UK - and that's both EU and UK companies /4


So both the @Foodanddrinkfed and EU groups like @CAOBISCO_EU (chocs etc) say they want the EU Commission to fix this with a derogation/waiver that takes into account proximity and interdependence of EU/UK supply chains. /5
BREXIT

More from Brexit

Ian Dunt
Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Commons debate of the Brexit deal kicks off in a bit and lasts until 2:30pm, when it goes off to the Lords. You can follow here.

I'm going to tweet along to the Commons bit because fuck it, what else is there to do. Just to eat and drink and be merry and relaxed, and why would anyone want to do something like that.

In the mean time, I strongly recommend this blog by @Brigid_Fowler of the Hansard Society

"Parliament’s role around the end of the Brexit transition and conclusion of the EU future relationship treaty is a constitutional failure to properly scrutinise the executive and the law."

The great irony at the heart of it all. This entire process was done to give parliament control. In reality, it is spending much less time scrutinising constitutional changes than when we were in the EU.
BREXIT
Simon Usherwood
Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Your regular reminder that Brexit is going badly because the UK has still to decide what the purpose of leaving the EU is

1/

#EUref came about as piece of party mgt by Cameron, rather than as culmination of considered and structured debate about UK's place in the world

2/

Yes, we talked a lot (A LOT) about 'Europe' and the EU, but primarily as a function of lots of other things

A touchstone of dissent, if you will (h/t @PaulAdamTaggart)

3/

Referendum campaigns on both sides were simply about getting people to vote their way, not efforts to set out settled plans of What Comes Next

"Vote for us and everything will be dandy" is not a plan

4/

That might have been alright if post-vote there had been a national discussion on how to proceed in an inclusive manner, but instead the political logic pointed to trying to capture the meaning of it all to serve particular agendas

All very majoritarian, as per

5/
BREXIT
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Shane Brennan
Shane Brennan
@ColdChainShane
As @michaelgove admitted yesterday we are expecting significant disruption in our #trade flows with the EU in coming days. The fact he is willing to say this confirms what most of us feel, that problems are building. This thread is a summary of what I have learnt in the past week

DISCLAIMER I run a trade body and spent the week in my back bedroom on the phone to members, reading the media and on zoom calls. I’m not on the ground and I am not in the operation rooms. So my info is second hand and partial. No one has a complete view. IT IS HIDEOUSLY COMPLEX

The first obvious problem is the number of different actors involved. On the commercial side - within 1 exporter there are multiple depts. There is also the buying company and the logistics company. They all have to sync. 1 load of goods involves multiple commercial actors.

On the government side its even more complex. In UK there are dozens of departments and agencies involved, and the same if not more in every member state of the EU. there are hundreds of thousands of decision makers involved.

They all have the same rule book though - YES true but its 1200 pages long and it's 15 days old - also - here's the thing with red tape, it's open to interpretation. (It's why lawyers tend to drive nice cars) and so being BORDER READY means different things to different actors.
BREXIT
Alessio Patalano
Alessio Patalano
@alessionaval
Two excellent questions at the end of a very sensible thread summarising the post-Brexit UK FP debate. My own take at attempting to offer an answer - ahead of the IR is as follow:


1. The two versions have a converging point: a tilt to the Indo-pacific doesn’t preclude a role as a convening power on global issues;
2. On the contrary, it underwrites the credibility for leadership on global issues, by seeking to strike two points:

A. Engaging with a part of the world in which world order and global issues are central to security, prosperity, and - not least - values;
B. Propelling the UK towards a more diversified set of economic, political, and security ties;

3. The tilt towards the Indo-Pacific whilst structurally based on a realist perception of the world, it is also deeply multilateral. Central to it is the notion of a Britain that is a convening power.
4. It is as a result a notion that stands on the ability to renew diplomacy;

5. It puts in relation to this a premium on under-utilised formats such as FPDA, 5Eyes, and indeed the Commonwealth - especially South Pacific islands;
6. It equally puts a premium on exploring new bilateral and multilateral formats. On former, Japan, Australia. On latter, Quad;
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Today's UK-EU trade deal reflection - what is rarely stated in discussions about the deal's shortcomings is that they reflect UK government policy choices - in particular that control of immigration and a US trade deal are a higher priority than an EU deal.

Thus, why was it not a UK government priority to secure for UK musicians the rights to tour the EU? Because that would probably have required a reciprocal right to be given to those in the EU, which we didn't want to give. Choice.

Meanwhile why did the UK government not seek or secure a reduction in food inspections for GB products going to the EU? Because that would probably have required fixing food regulations in a way that might have been an obstacle to a US trade deal.

Works the other way as well. Why did the EU refuse UK requests on mutual recognition of industrial testing? In part at least because of UK lack of commitment on maintaining the previous EU system of standards and conformity assessment which might be a problem in a US deal.

One of the strangest opinions in the London politics bubble is that the UK government isn't that bothered about a US trade deal, as it so obviously goes against the evidence. There might be domestic opposition, but this was to be Brexit Dividend Number 1.
BREXIT

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• How to deploy capital
• Exit criteria
• What ROI he targets weekly
• What % risk he takes

Done with the help of @niki_poojary


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• Always play directional
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