BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

While we await white smoke signalling a #Brexit deal, let us consider what the end of the transition period on 31 Dec (deal or no deal) will mean for the future of UK politics. Will the end of the Brexit process lead to the end of British #populism? I am very sceptical.
Thread 1/

 This thread serves as an English summary and translation of a long essay I published in the Swiss @RepublikMagazin last week. Contrary to its title, it is not just about @BorisJohnson 2/
https://t.co/vVCYVGJoCm
British populism is a political method, not an ideology. It is not identical with Trumpism, even if it shares some of its traits. The populist method in the UK does not become redundant with #Brexit, because its use hasn't been limited to the UK's relationship with the EU.
3/
The populist method in the UK consists of two key elements:
1) the emotionalization and over-simplification of highly complex issues (such as Brexit, the pandemic, migration, culture or history)
2) the reliance on bogeymen ('enemies') both abroad and at home

4/
Populists depend on enemies, real or imagined, to legitimize their actions and deflect from their own shortcomings. There has been an obvious candidate for the enemy abroad since 2016: the EU. But once transition is over, this may, in the long term, become more difficult.
5/
But even then, Mr. Johnson and his enablers will be able to rely on the 'enemies within' that they have conjured up and attacked since the referendum, and especially since he became PM in the summer of 2019: Parliament, civil servants, judges and lawyers, experts, the BBC.
6/
Individuals & institutions who dare to limit the power of the executive, even if it is just by asking questions, are at constant risk to be denounced as "activists" by Johnson &Co. Everyone has political motives except for the government, which seeks to define "neutrality".
7/
Brexit is being framed as the grand departure, the moment when the UK is finally free and sovereign, when all problems can be solved with common sense and optimism. This is used as justification for a "pragmatic" approach to rules, constitutional conventions and institutions.
8/
The story of the unlawful prorogation of Parliament last year is well known, but this was only one example of the worrying disregard that Mr. Johnson has shown for the institutions of parliamentary democracy and the #RuleOfLaw
9/
A prime example for the populist disregard of the #Ruleof Law is the Internal Market Bill, which, by the government's own admission, breaks International Law. Another one are the attacks on "leftie lawyers" or "judges in pyjamas" (who dare to do their jobs).
10/
Another group which has often found itself in the line of fire since 2016 is the civil service. The image of the "Remoaner cosmopolitian elite" propagated in the pro-Brexit press helps call their professional neutrality into question and opens them to personalized attack.
11/
The replacement of no less than six Permanent Under-Secretaries in various government departments since 2019 is remarkable. As is the fact that the idea of ministerial responsibility appears to have been abandoned. Civil servants resign, ministers stay in their places.
12/
So what is Mr. Johnson's role in all this? He is the most prominent representative of British populism, but it is vital to note that he&his populist method could not succeed without the support or at least silent acquiescence of his party and a significant part of the media.
13/
Which is why even the end of Johnson's premiership (which, btw, I do not foresee v. soon) will not necessarily entail the end of British populism. Moderate conservative politicians have been expelled from the party or left on their own accord. No populist exists in a vacuum.
14/
As for the appeal of the populist method to the electorate, I do not expect it to shrink when the transition period ends, especially not when the very real and hard consequences of the pandemic, and, from 1 January 2021 onwards, of Brexit, are only just beginning to show.
15/
It is naive to expect that a political style which ridicules complexity, presents people with bogeymen to despise, and prides itself on "doing what it necessary" even if "elites"& boring institutions get in the way, will lose its appeal in times of hardship.
16/ends

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@EU_Commission This is in no way confined to food industry - clothes and retailers are also hard-hit.

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The citizens' rights provisions of the withdrawal agreement (on EU citizens who moved to the UK, and UK citizens who moved to the EU, before the end of the transition period) start to apply.

Annotation and detailed analysis of those provisions here:

After today, UK citizens newly moving to the EU, or EU citizens newly moving to the UK, are in principle governed by national law (partly harmonised by the EU, on the EU side).

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The #BrexitDeal also refers to the matching unilateral decisions of the EU and UK to waive a visa requirement for short tourist visits. Analysis of the EU law on that issue here:

UK citizens resident in the EU on the basis of the withdrawal agreement (or who move to EU in future) should be covered by the EU law on long-term resident non-EU citizens, which provides for a limited form of mobility between Member States. Analysis here:
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Many Brits live under the false impression that the UK has a Special Relationship with the US. In reality, it's far more transactional, especially for the Americans. This delusion is especially dangerous as post-Brexit UK seeks a new place in the world

While the two do have a very close relationship on security and defence built on post-war efforts, it would be foolhardy to expect any US president to place much emphasis on the UK's economic interests over any other third country

The problem Boris Johnson has is that a close relationship with the White House is more important than any time since the war, given the UK's new status outside the EU. What a headache, then, that the US is having an election with 2 v different candidates

On one hand: Trump likes Brexit, dislikes the EU and might see benefit in disrupting the EU by teaming up with the UK in a way that helps the UK economically. However, Trump is wildly unpopular in the UK and Boris does not want to be seen as his best mate

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Brexit also brings UK pork sector to standstill. Surprise eh? @RichardAENorth 🙄
UK pork processors are experiencing significant issues in exporting products to the EU, which has already brought part of the industry to a complete standstill, risking knock-on impacts on farm.


The widely seen footage of overzealous Dutch (*my edit: "no they were not"*) inspection officials confiscating ham sandwiches transported by British hauliers is just the tip of the iceberg as far as the UK pig sector is concerned.
The NPA’s processor members have reported that

excessive (*my edit: only for non-EU members*) bureaucracy associated with paperwork requirements are causing delays at Dover, Calais and other ports. With pork being a perishable product, these delays are making UK shipments unattractive to buyers in the EU, forcing processors

to reject shipments and cancel future orders.
Despite the trade deal agreed between the EU & UK just before Christmas, the UK’s formal departure from the EU Customs Union and Single Market was always going to mean additional checks, new labelling and certification requirements

and delays at ports. While the full overall impact of the new rules is yet to be felt, as UK export volumes remain lower than normal for the time of year, the UK pig sector is already feeling the effect. Processors have reported a number of issues, including:
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David Henig
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So many stories of new barriers to trade between UK and EU, but you might be thinking at some point these will run out. The government is certainly hoping so. Well they may slow down, but trade relations and regulations are not static, and changes will lead to further problems.

The likelihood of continued trade problems for a £650 bn trade relationship is why there should be a huge cross-government effort led by the Foreign Office and Department for International Trade to put in place the necessary resources to seek best results.

There isn't.

So the UK's relationship with the EU currently consists of two not particularly good deals and no consistent effort to manage current problems or prevent future ones. Joint committees are a second order problem to putting in place the right internal structures.

But that's been the consistent UK problem in relations with the EU since 2016. Lack of focus on getting the right internal structures, people, asks, strategy, too much attention on being tough and a single leader.

News just in. This doesn't necessarily mean the right structure being put into UK-EU relations. I suspect Frost's main role is to ensure no renegotiations with the EU.

Also, wonder what this says about the PM's trust in Michael Gove?
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