The #Bitcoin fundamentals of four generations of inflation, entitlements, and regulations are separate and apart from #Bitcoin the technological innovation. If we had sound money there would be little demand for Bitcoin. (1/13)

✨ Today, I started my ８ＴＨ ＹＥＡＲ working full-time in #Bitcoin.

I've been a journalist, I've worked at a global exchange and I've spent thousands of hours down the rabbit hole.

If you're just starting out, here are the lessons I'd pass along 🧵

1/ The #Bitcoin bear case has two two components:

The macro, and the miners.

THREAD 👇

2/ On the macro side, if the dollar reverses its major downtrend and/or real rates turn positive, that will hurt $BTC considerably.

I don't expect either to happen in 2021, but have to pay attention to these.

3/ On the miners side, one has to consider the miners' cycle.

It works like this 👇

4/ Miners' hashrate (the aggregated bitcoin computing capacity) is directly tied to mining difficulty, which is the main variable in the bitcoin cost of production

=> the more capacity installed, the higher the difficulty, and the higher the cost.

5/ In a bull-run, miners' hashrate lags price, so as price takes off and moves higher, miners' profitability explodes (as price goes up but production costs don't as much).

These are the happy times.

1/ If you're new, here are some must-read resources on bitcoin, ethereum, defi, web 3.0, and the future of crypto.

Tools to join the revolution. 👇

2/ @case4bitcoin is the ultimate bitcoin beginners resource, with macro stats and charts, a deep library of curated content, and regular updates that put bitcoin's evolution in

3/ We've built the new @MessariCrypto to give users a "second screen" for navigating the markets.

+ ROI & fundamentals metrics by sector
+ Comprehensive asset profiles
+ Charting tools, screeners, watch lists

Free! (Though we have premium tools,

4/ Our crypto theses were downloaded 3x more than 2019's. At 134 pages, it seems daunting.

But it's a tight summary of all of our research team's epic work throughout the year.

Almost like 120 tear sheets or 12 sector research reports stapled

5/ Once you've been redpilled on BTC, and have an understanding of the overall crypto markets, the next rabbit hole to jump down is usually ETH.

@RyanWatkins_ and @WilsonWithiam wrote the must read primer on Ethereum, and its major new upgrade

For those who were trading in 2017 or earlier bull markets this may be obvious, but these kinds of corrections are typically driven by overleveraged longs, not whales dumping on you. That hasn’t started yet. Let me break down why it happens and why it is worse on the weekends.

I should probably have data to back this up, but I haven’t kept up to date with the latest trading data so much of this is based on intuition and experience trading through 2016-2018. If you have data that invalidates this please provide it, happy to be wrong here!

Firstly in an early bull market you have some OG holders taking profit around previous ATH, they have “learned their lesson” and are trying to not get rekt like last time. Once they finish taking some profits or hedging they are riding this up to multiples of previous ATH.

For example I sold around 5-10% of my ETH into stables between $500-$1200, over $1,200 you would need to claw it out of my cold dead hands before we hit $3k. If we don’t get there this cycle (we will) then I will just keep holding. I know a lot of people who did the same.

The problem with this is that the new money coming in and pushing the price up is highly leveraged, and the people with the most conviction are mainly holding and so while they might buy some dips they probably don’t have the dry powder to soak up huge liquidated positions.

Unmasking the Deceased Programmer Who Donated 28 Bitcoin to Capitol Hill Rioters. https://t.co/EOrIu7x4J6

French far-right hacker Laurent Bachelier aka "pankkake"