1/ outlook for bitcoin: positive ЁЯЪА

in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions

disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at

2/ let's start w sentiment тШ║я╕П

first, investor sentiment:
тЬЕ @blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
тЬЕ @RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
тЬЕJPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:

ЁЯЪи most important indicator is the forward curve

normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.

this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish ЁЯРВЁЯУИ despite funding rate increase!
4/ sentiment drives demand. so DEMAND next.

ЁЯТ╕ let's talk fund flows

ЁЯдС our research shows $359M of inflows into crypto products last week alone (https://t.co/6Kky96m3ob)
ЁЯдС our @CoinSharesCo @xbtprovider ETPs saw $200M trading volume on jan 4

https://t.co/8prtUF1Xxv
4/ let's talk bitcoin fundamentals

post-halving, 900 BTC mined per day, 312,000 this year.

ЁЯСА 47M millionaires. 21M bitcoin.

ЁЯПЖ collectibles selling at all time highs. bitcoin is the ultimate collector's item. (see https://t.co/EaxpRwWe3Y)
5/ next, market structure (my fave)

@CoinSharesCo traded >$1.5B in first two weeks of 2021. have never seen this level of participation.

spot volumes skyrocketing - BTC/USD trade pair volume has ~7x'ed since August, institutions instead of crypto native firms (who use USDT)
6/ biggest market structure shift?

ЁЯХР trading hours shifting from asia dominance to UK / US hours activity
ЁЯТ▒ trade pair dominance shifting from USDT to USD
ЁЯЪА open interest (OI) on @CMEGroup bitcoin derivs >$1B, break new high

1 + 2 via @KaikoData -https://t.co/RiYNMEP1h1
7/ lastly, macro, cuz BTC doesn't exist in a vacuum and everything is relative

ЁЯЦия╕П dems + yellen to print print print - $2.5T stimmy

тЪая╕П unprecedented levels of chaos, mass-scale institutional failure all around

*bitcoin is an antidote to dysfunction*

https://t.co/dJLx6I1vFS
8/ hopefully that provides perspective into how our team @CoinSharesCo thinks and works.

no price targets. no timelines. we use empirical evidence to build an actionable outlook.

being a #bitcoin bull is great. being a bitcoin bull who brings receipts is even better.

/ fin

More from Bitcoin

Agree mate. Well done @ttmygh @profplum99 and @nic__carter on a ripping show. Im obviously in the "gold is superior" camp, though I am long #BTC (tiny position). I thought the best/most interesting point of whole debate was raised by @profplum99 regarding the fact that a 1/n


#Bitcoin transaction is never really final, given the energy required to keep the network running, and obviously its scale issues will only grow over time. That said, I actually though @nic__carter "won" the debate as it were, and I was unconvinced by the threat to national 2/n

security or undermining Fed policy angles Mike put forward. Two areas that are super interesting to me. One is the issue of #Bitcoin ownership, and how concentrated it is in terms of a small % of addresses that own most of it (2% addresses > 95% of holdings I think). 3/n

made great point a lot of this is omnibus/exchange related - so exchange or fund - ie @Grayscale holds #bitcoin for multiple investors. That may well be true - but it brings up 2 other issues. One - it proves that #bitcoin doesn't really "work" without 4/n

centralisation - as this implies most people need exchanges or funds (or @Paypal) to buy it. If so, that kills off a major "bitcoin is better than gold argument" - as in reality, gold is way more decentralised (from mine supply to ownership distribution). It also brings up a 5/n
Another #FreeLoveFriday. So far, IтАЩve covered Bitcoin, Mastercoin/Omni, and last week ChainLink and the importance of decentralized oracles. Today, letтАЩs talk about one of the most fascinating projects in crypto - @MakerDAO


In my thread about Mastercoin, I briefly touched on the vital role fiat-backed stablecoins play in crypto markets, but thereтАЩs a catch with them:

The counterparty risk of a third-party holding fiat in reserves.

Enter MakerDAO, which set out to create a decentralized, collateral-backed cryptocurrency, DAI, that would be тАЬsoft-peggedтАЭ to the U.S. Dollar using the power of algorithms. In crypto tradition, its supporters said trust game theory, not operators.

In 2017, MakerDAO published a whitepaper describing a system where anyone could create DAI by leveraging ETH as collateral to create Collateralized Debt Positions. Essentially, you take out a digital USD loan against your crypto.

The game theory of the system is structured such that DAI issuance is controlled to keep the price pegged to $1.00. In essence, it buffers the fluctuations of the underlying collateral to create a synthetic dollar bill.
The defi matrix

As each asset class goes on-chain, it can be stored in a digital wallet. And it can be traded against other such assets. Not just cryptocurrencies, but national digital currencies, personal tokens, etc.

WeтАЩre about to enter an age of global monetary competition.

The defi matrix is the table of all pair wise trades. ItтАЩs the fiat/stablecoin pairs, the fiat/crypto pairs, the crypto/crypto pairs, and much more besides.

Uniswap-style automatic market making for everything. Every possession you have, constantly marked to market by ~2040.

More liquidity, less currency?

This is an interesting point. Cash doesnтАЩt make you money. In fact, it can lose you money in an inflating environment.

Reliable, 24/7 mark-to-market on everything is hard тАФ but if achieved, means less % of assets in cash.


AMMs boost BTC. Here's why.

- All assets trade against all assets in the defi matrix
- Automated market makers give liquidity for rare pairs
- Everything is marked-to-market 24/7
- Value of cash drops, as you can liquidate instantly
- The new no-op is to keep your assets in BTC

Basically, automated market makers like @Uniswap boost BTC in the long term, because they allow *everything* to be priced in BTC terms, and *anyone* to switch out of BTC into their asset of choice.

Though in practice this may mean WBTC/RenBTC [or ETH!] rather than BTC itself.
1/ If, like me, you've been looking at #Bitcoin over the last few years with interest, but you have never really decided which side of the fence you sit on, this thread might be good for you.

This isn't another opinion piece on #Bitcoin , in-fact, it's exactly the opposite. ЁЯСЗЁЯП╝

This thread is a list of resources I have found to be useful and insightful when it comes to understanding the pros and cons of #Bitcoin .

Below, you'll find knowledgeable people ЁЯСйЁЯП╜тАНЁЯТ╗, articles/essays ЁЯУЭ, podcasts ЁЯОз and videos ЁЯУ╣ about #Bitcoin . Enjoy!

/2 People ЁЯСйЁЯП╜тАНЁЯТ╗

These individuals are valuable to listen to, whilst they are bullish, they justify their stance:

@RaoulGMI
@michael_saylor
@DTAPCAP
@APompliano
@VentureCoinist
@AlexSaundersAU
@danheld
@aantonop
@jchervinsky
@real_vijay
@lawmaster
@LynAldenContact

/3 Resources ЁЯПв

A video library of interviews from various Bitcoin enthusiasts. ЁЯСЗЁЯП╝

https://t.co/CJJvHavSOn

A great guide for new investors to Bitcoin. ЁЯСЗЁЯП╝

https://t.co/fOoSfTlWr5

A portal for people to go from zero knowledge to intermediate level.

/4 Tweet threads ЁЯРж

A great thread on rebuttals from common #Bitcoin queries/criticisms. ЁЯСЗЁЯП╝

https://t.co/tPEpFMMPhH

Why companies are starting to put BTC on the balance sheet. ЁЯСЗЁЯП╝

https://t.co/lL71M1A3NF

тАЬA double-spend broke Bitcoin" debunked.

You May Also Like

рдорд╣рд╛рднрд╛рд░рдд рдХреА рдХрд╣рд╛рдиреА рдХреМрди рдирд╣реАрдВ рдЬрд╛рдирддрд╛редрд▓реЗрдХрд┐рди рдХреНрдпрд╛ рдЖрдкрдХреЛ рдкрддрд╛ рд╣реИ рдХрд┐ рдорд╣рд╛рднрд╛рд░рдд рдХреЗ рдЬреНрдпрд╛рджрд╛рддрд░ рдкрд╛рддреНрд░ рдХрд┐рд╕реА рди рдХрд┐рд╕реА рд╢реНрд░рд╛рдк рдореЗрдВ рдлрдВрд╕реЗ рдереЗредрдЕрдЧрд░ рдпреЗ рд╢реНрд░рд╛рдк рди рд╣реЛрддреЗ рддреЛ рдХрджрд╛рдЪрд┐рдд рдорд╣рд╛рднрд╛рд░рдд рдХреА рдХрд╣рд╛рдиреА рдХреБрдЫ рдФрд░ рд╣реЛрддреАредрд╣рд┐рдиреНрджреБ рдкреМрд░рд╛рдгрд┐рдХ рдЧреНрд░рдВрдереЛрдВ рдореЗрдВ рд╡рд┐рднрд┐рдиреНрди рд╢реНрд░рд╛рдкреЛрдВ рдХрд╛ рд╡рд░реНрдгрди рдорд┐рд▓рддрд╛ рд╣реИ рд╡ рд╣рд░ рд╢реНрд░рд╛рдк рдХреЗ рдкреАрдЫреЗ рдХреЛрдИ рдХрд╣рд╛рдиреА рдЕрд╡рд╢реНрдп рд╣реЛрддреА рд╣реИред


рдЖрдЗрдП рдЖрдЬ рдЬрд╛рдирддреЗ рд╣реИрдВ рдорд╣рд╛рднрд╛рд░рдд рдХрдерд╛ рдореЗрдВ рд╡рд░реНрдгрд┐рдд рдХреБрдЫ рд╢реНрд░рд╛рдкреЛрдВ рдХреЗ рдмрд╛рд░реЗ рдореЗрдВред

1) рд░рд╛рдЬрд╛ рдкрд╛рдгреНрдбреБ рдХреЛ рдЛрд╖рд┐ рдХрд┐рдиреНрджрдо рдХрд╛ рд╢реНрд░рд╛рдк

рдПрдХрдмрд╛рд░ рдорд╣рд╛рд░рд╛рдЬ рдкрд╛рдгреНрдбреБ рд╢рд┐рдХрд╛рд░ рдЦреЗрд▓рдиреЗ рд╡рди рдЧрдПредрдЭрд╛рдбрд┐рдпреЛрдВ рдХреЗ рдкреАрдЫреЗ рдХреБрдЫ рд╣рд┐рд▓ рд░рд╣рд╛ рдерд╛ред рдореГрдЧ рд╣реИ рд╕реЛрдЪрдХрд░ рд░рд╛рдЬрд╛ рдиреЗ рдмрд╛рдг рдЪрд▓рд╛рдпрд╛ рдЬреЛ рдЬрд╛рдХрд░ рдЛрд╖рд┐ рдХрд┐рдиреНрджрдо рдФрд░ рдЙрдирдХреА рдкрддреНрдиреА рдХреЛ рд▓рдЧрд╛редрд╡реЗ рджреЛрдиреЛ рд░рддрд┐-рдХреНрд░реАрдбрд╝рд╛ рдореЗрдВ рд▓рд┐рдкреНрдд рдереЗред

рдЬрдм рд░рд╛рдЬрд╛ рдиреЗ рдЙрдиреНрд╣реЗрдВ рджреЗрдЦрд╛ рддреЛ рдмрд╣реБрдд рджреБрдЦреА рд╣реБрдП рдХрд┐ рдпреЗ рдореБрдЭрд╕реЗ рдХреНрдпрд╛ рдкрд╛рдк рд╣реЛ рдЧрдпрд╛редрдмрд╣реБрдд рдХреНрд╖рдорд╛ рдпрд╛рдЪрдирд╛ рдХреЗ рдмрд╛рдж рднреА рдХрд┐рдиреНрджрдо рдЛрд╖рд┐ рдиреЗ рдкрд╛рдгреНрдбреБ рдХреЛ рд╢реНрд░рд╛рдк рджреЗ рджрд┐рдпрд╛ рдХрд┐ рдЬрдм рднреА рд╡реЛ рдХрд┐рд╕реА рд╕реНрддреНрд░реА рдХреЛ рдХрд╛рдо рднрд╛рд╡рдирд╛ рд╕реЗ рд╕реНрдкрд░реНрд╢ рдХрд░реЗрдВрдЧреЗ рдЙрд╕реА рдХреНрд╖рдг рдЙрдирдХреА рдореГрддреНрдпреБ рд╣реЛ рдЬрд╛рдПрдЧреАредрдкрд╢реНрдЪрд╛рддрд╛рдк рдХрд░рдиреЗ, рд╡реЗ рд╕рд┐рдВрд╣рд╛рд╕рди рдкреЗ рдЕрдиреНрдзреЗ рд░рд╛рдЬрд╛ рдзреГрддрд░рд╛рд╖реНрдЯреНрд░ рдХреЛ рдмреИрдард╛рдХрд░...


..рд╕реНрд╡рдпрдВ рдЕрдкрдиреА рд░рд╛рдирд┐рдпреЛрдВ рдХреБрдВрддреА рд╡ рдорд╛рджреНрд░реА рдХреЗ рд╕рд╛рде рд╡рди рдЪрд▓реЗ рдЧрдПредрдкрд╛рдВрдбрд╡реЛрдВ рдХрд╛ рдЬрдиреНрдо рднреА рдХреБрдВрддреА рдХреЛ рдЛрд╖рд┐ рджреБрд░реНрд╡рд╛рд╕рд╛ рджреНрд╡рд╛рд░рд╛ рджрд┐рдП рдЧрдП рдордВрддреНрд░ рд╕реЗ рд╣реБрдЖ рдерд╛ рдЬрд┐рд╕рдореЗ рдХрд┐рд╕реА рднреА рджреЗрд╡ рдХрд╛ рд╕реНрдорд░рдг рдХрд░ рдЙрд╕ рджреЗрд╡ рд╕реЗ рдХреБрдВрддреА,рдкреБрддреНрд░ рдкреНрд░рд╛рдкреНрдд рдХрд░ рд╕рдХрддреА рдереАредрдПрдХ рдмрд╛рд░ рдорд╛рджреНрд░реА рдкреЗ рдореЛрд╣рд┐рдд рд╣реЛ рдЬрдм рдкрд╛рдВрдбреБ рдиреЗ рдЙрд╕реЗ рд╕реНрдкрд░реНрд╢ рдХрд┐рдпрд╛,рдЙрд╕реА рдХреНрд╖рдг рдкрд╛рдВрдбреБ рдХреА рдореГрддреНрдпреБ рд╣реЛрдЧрдпреАред


2) рдЙрд░реНрд╡рд╢реА рдХрд╛ рдЕрд░реНрдЬреБрди рдХреЛ рд╢реНрд░рд╛рдк

рдорд╣рд╛рднрд╛рд░рдд рдпреБрджреНрдз рд╕реЗ рдкрд╣рд▓реЗ рдЬрдм рдЕрд░реНрдЬреБрди рджрд┐рд╡реНрдпрд╛рд╕реНрддреНрд░ рдкреНрд░рд╛рдкреНрдд рдХрд░рдиреЗ рд╕реНрд╡рд░реНрдЧ рдЧрдП рддреЛ рд╡рд╣рд╛рдВ рдЙрд░реНрд╡рд╢реА рдирд╛рдо рдХреА рдЕрдкреНрд╕рд░рд╛ рдЙрди рдкрд░ рдореЛрд╣рд┐рдд рд╣реЛ рдЧрдпреАред рдЕрд░реНрдЬреБрди рдиреЗ рдЬрдм рдЙрдиреНрд╣реЗрдВ рдЕрдкрдиреА рдорд╛рддрд╛ рдХреЗ рд╕рдорд╛рди рдмрддрд╛рдпрд╛ рддреЛ рдпрд╣ рд╕реБрдирдХрд░ рдЙрд░реНрд╡рд╢реА рдХреНрд░реЛрдзрд┐рдд рд╣реЛ рдЧрдпреА рдФрд░ рдЕрд░реНрдЬреБрди рдХреЛ рд╢реНрд░рд╛рдк рджреЗ рдбрд╛рд▓рд╛ рдХрд┐ рддреБрдо рдирдкреБрдВрд╕рдХ рдХреА рднрд╛рдВрддрд┐...