1/ outlook for bitcoin: positive 🚀

in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions

disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at

2/ let's start w sentiment ☺️

first, investor sentiment:
@blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
@RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
✅JPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:

🚨 most important indicator is the forward curve

normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.

this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish 🐂📈 despite funding rate increase!
4/ sentiment drives demand. so DEMAND next.

💸 let's talk fund flows

🤑 our research shows $359M of inflows into crypto products last week alone (https://t.co/6Kky96m3ob)
🤑 our @CoinSharesCo @xbtprovider ETPs saw $200M trading volume on jan 4

https://t.co/8prtUF1Xxv
4/ let's talk bitcoin fundamentals

post-halving, 900 BTC mined per day, 312,000 this year.

👀 47M millionaires. 21M bitcoin.

🏆 collectibles selling at all time highs. bitcoin is the ultimate collector's item. (see https://t.co/EaxpRwWe3Y)
5/ next, market structure (my fave)

@CoinSharesCo traded >$1.5B in first two weeks of 2021. have never seen this level of participation.

spot volumes skyrocketing - BTC/USD trade pair volume has ~7x'ed since August, institutions instead of crypto native firms (who use USDT)
6/ biggest market structure shift?

🕐 trading hours shifting from asia dominance to UK / US hours activity
💱 trade pair dominance shifting from USDT to USD
🚀 open interest (OI) on @CMEGroup bitcoin derivs >$1B, break new high

1 + 2 via @KaikoData -https://t.co/RiYNMEP1h1
7/ lastly, macro, cuz BTC doesn't exist in a vacuum and everything is relative

🖨️ dems + yellen to print print print - $2.5T stimmy

⚠️ unprecedented levels of chaos, mass-scale institutional failure all around

*bitcoin is an antidote to dysfunction*

https://t.co/dJLx6I1vFS
8/ hopefully that provides perspective into how our team @CoinSharesCo thinks and works.

no price targets. no timelines. we use empirical evidence to build an actionable outlook.

being a #bitcoin bull is great. being a bitcoin bull who brings receipts is even better.

/ fin

More from Bitcoin

$BTC views

Price needs to let volatility wear off before its next big move. Thinking 30K-40K range for the next 1-2 weeks. Then either 50K straight or after piercing 30K and bouncing back above 30K within 1-2 days.


$27500-$27000 is the key area. If price heads back down to 30K, expect 30K to be breached, fall to that area, and bounce back. FAST. All very fast.


What do I do with this information?

Simple.

I'm trading the range against a core position. Buying when price pushes lower, selling when higher. It's like playing the achordeon. There's always air left inside.

Where exactly?

Nowhere.

I don't use limits for that. $BTC is liquid enough to trade at market without issues.

I'm watching PA, volume and rates for buying and euphoria as reflected in rates for reducing.

Decision making is dynamic. Nothing is set in stone. But most likely if price heads back down to 30K 'll be holding off next time. The gameplan is to have ammo to buy the dip (to redeploy). If 30K breaks absolutely no buying until down to 27Ks or back above 30K.
1/ #Bitcoin FUD-busting time!

claim: bitcoin ownership is heavily concentrated.

@business published an article claiming "2% of accounts control 95% of all Bitcoin" 🤣

truth: the facts, my friends, simple don't line up. let's dive in!

2/ interrogating on-chain addresses is tricky.

address =/ account.

one person can control multiple addresses.

one address can hold bitcoin belonging to multiple ppl.

exchanges and trading firms will have addresses with large balances that represent client funds.

3/ the fine folks @glassnode published an excellent analysis of on-chain address balances in January

the ownership distribution of bitcoin among wallets is actually much more diverse than one might expect.

full piece here:
https://t.co/n5IdIQdNoA


4/ 31% of BTC is held in addresses not identified as exchange wallets.

these are likely institutions, funds, custodians, and OTC desks.

our analysis at @CoinSharesCo indicates >15% of all bitcoin is held in third party custody, including @coinbase and our own @KomainuCustody

5/ in fact, between asset managers @Grayscale ($36B in BTC) and our @xbtprovider ($4B in BTC), 4% of bitcoin is locked up by fund providers and asset managers!

our @CoinSharesCo research team publishes an EXCELLENT weekly report on fund flows and AUMs -

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