1/ outlook for bitcoin: positive ЁЯЪА

in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions

disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at

2/ let's start w sentiment тШ║я╕П

first, investor sentiment:
тЬЕ @blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
тЬЕ @RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
тЬЕJPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:

ЁЯЪи most important indicator is the forward curve

normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.

this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish ЁЯРВЁЯУИ despite funding rate increase!
4/ sentiment drives demand. so DEMAND next.

ЁЯТ╕ let's talk fund flows

ЁЯдС our research shows $359M of inflows into crypto products last week alone (https://t.co/6Kky96m3ob)
ЁЯдС our @CoinSharesCo @xbtprovider ETPs saw $200M trading volume on jan 4

https://t.co/8prtUF1Xxv
4/ let's talk bitcoin fundamentals

post-halving, 900 BTC mined per day, 312,000 this year.

ЁЯСА 47M millionaires. 21M bitcoin.

ЁЯПЖ collectibles selling at all time highs. bitcoin is the ultimate collector's item. (see https://t.co/EaxpRwWe3Y)
5/ next, market structure (my fave)

@CoinSharesCo traded >$1.5B in first two weeks of 2021. have never seen this level of participation.

spot volumes skyrocketing - BTC/USD trade pair volume has ~7x'ed since August, institutions instead of crypto native firms (who use USDT)
6/ biggest market structure shift?

ЁЯХР trading hours shifting from asia dominance to UK / US hours activity
ЁЯТ▒ trade pair dominance shifting from USDT to USD
ЁЯЪА open interest (OI) on @CMEGroup bitcoin derivs >$1B, break new high

1 + 2 via @KaikoData -https://t.co/RiYNMEP1h1
7/ lastly, macro, cuz BTC doesn't exist in a vacuum and everything is relative

ЁЯЦия╕П dems + yellen to print print print - $2.5T stimmy

тЪая╕П unprecedented levels of chaos, mass-scale institutional failure all around

*bitcoin is an antidote to dysfunction*

https://t.co/dJLx6I1vFS
8/ hopefully that provides perspective into how our team @CoinSharesCo thinks and works.

no price targets. no timelines. we use empirical evidence to build an actionable outlook.

being a #bitcoin bull is great. being a bitcoin bull who brings receipts is even better.

/ fin

More from Bitcoin

1/ #Bitcoin FUD-busting time!

claim: bitcoin ownership is heavily concentrated.

@business published an article claiming "2% of accounts control 95% of all Bitcoin" ЁЯдг

truth: the facts, my friends, simple don't line up. let's dive in!

2/ interrogating on-chain addresses is tricky.

address =/ account.

one person can control multiple addresses.

one address can hold bitcoin belonging to multiple ppl.

exchanges and trading firms will have addresses with large balances that represent client funds.

3/ the fine folks @glassnode published an excellent analysis of on-chain address balances in January

the ownership distribution of bitcoin among wallets is actually much more diverse than one might expect.

full piece here:
https://t.co/n5IdIQdNoA


4/ 31% of BTC is held in addresses not identified as exchange wallets.

these are likely institutions, funds, custodians, and OTC desks.

our analysis at @CoinSharesCo indicates >15% of all bitcoin is held in third party custody, including @coinbase and our own @KomainuCustody

5/ in fact, between asset managers @Grayscale ($36B in BTC) and our @xbtprovider ($4B in BTC), 4% of bitcoin is locked up by fund providers and asset managers!

our @CoinSharesCo research team publishes an EXCELLENT weekly report on fund flows and AUMs -
The #Bitcoin fundamentals of four generations of inflation, entitlements, and regulations are separate and apart from #Bitcoin the technological innovation. If we had sound money there would be little demand for Bitcoin. (1/13)


The notion that gold futures hold down the physical gold price or subjects the gold price to long-term manipulation is a canard. CME gold futures deliveries are settled with warrants meeting exact specifications met by approved refineries, carriers, and warehouses which (2/13)

ensures the integrity of delivery apart from the exchange. https://t.co/CpV1OBSsAT One need look no further than the 1980 Hunt Silver fiasco which illustrates how deliverable futures contracts provide for the discovery of an untapped silver supply resting in people's homes.(3/13)

Not so for Bitcoin. The CME Bakkt Bitcoin contract is for Bakkt Bitcoin. It is not Bitcoin. Bakkt Bitcoin is a cash-settled monthly futures contract. While the Bakkt Bitcoin has geographically storage of private keys, they are not your private keys. (4/13)


Not your keys, not your bitcoin. The Bitcoin Warehouse is an internal ledger The internal ledger operates separate and apart from the Bitcoin blockchain. The only interaction with the public blockchain is during the deposit of bitcoin into the Bakkt Warehouse and the (5/13)

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