1/ outlook for bitcoin: positive 🚀

in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions

disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at

With Philadelphia now up, the billboard photo thread that teaches those about #Bitcoin as an alternative to our broken financial system is complete

Those in the 12 Federal Reserve Bank cities who see them are directed to the thread below as copied from @BTCvsFED ⬇️

Not long ago, the dollar was backed by gold

This meant you could redeem your dollar for gold & the government had to have enough gold to match the number of dollars they printed

“The Gold Standard” ended in 1971 b/c the US ran low on gold & needed more $ for war & welfare

Without a cap on how much money could be printed, The Federal Reserve (USA’s central bank) was now free to create unlimited quantities of dollars

When the Fed prints money, inflation occurs & prices go up b/c all dollars are worth less

If your earnings don't keep up w/ the rate of inflation the purchasing power of your dollars melts away

Imagine the economy is a pizza & The Fed gives you a slice ($1)

When printing new money, they cut your🍕into more pieces to give out

Yes, you still have a slice ($1) but you’re hungrier b/c that $1 doesn’t go as far

Many Americans hold dollars b/c they can’t afford a home & w/ bills to pay they can’t risk the stock market

Meanwhile, the wealthy move $ into real estate & other assets that better hold value

#Bitcoin #BTC - Break of lower channel support at around 16500-17000 shall take it to 1750-1800

Massive price erosion in cryptos a very likely outcome. This shall spill over to equities as well but not to same extent.

1/ Thread explains the rationale for $GBTC over #bitcoin. (Speaking from experience, but not necessarily an endorsement of GBTC):

2/ $GBTC fills a need and is designed to permit exposure to #bitcoin for professional, registered investment advisors in the US. Money managers have unique circumstances compared to individual investors.

3/ #Imagine you are an investment mgr with 250 client accounts (an average-sized separate account manager would have 400). Owning #bitcoin means setting up another 250 accounts - major work with not a lot of reward. If you want to rebalance (stocks/bonds/bitcoin)...

4/ you have 250 transfers to make. Doubles admin workload, makes operational life very complicated. Lots of work for a 5-10% allocation (or less!) to $BTC.

5/ Client reporting is a nightmare. 2 sets of custodian statements not easily combined... A typical client already has 3 accounts, now it is 6 accounts & 6 statements, and there are few software feeds to consolidate data from #crypto exchanges into traditional portfolio reports.

1/ @Square buys $50M of #Bitcoin w/ its balance sheet 🚀

let's untangle what corporate treasurers do and why this matters...

the role of corp treasurer didn’t exist until the 1970s, when co's faced high inflation and financial uncertainty

2/ in this environment, companies with no cash management or treasury strategy were losing 10-12% / yr to inflation

modern corporate treasury is typically focused on cash management and managing the opportunity cost of capital

holding cash is *not* a strategy

3/ when i worked in corp treasury, we mostly traded the overnight and short term rate markets

we could earn a nice 3-5% return in these very low-risk assets w/ time preference

treasurers today are living in a radically different world!

RATES ARE 0

TARGET INFLATION IS >2%

4/ faced with this new reality, corporate treasurers (and all investors) are looking at alternatives

#Bitcoin is a highly liquid asset that trades 24/7 in an increasingly regulated and structured global market - and its an effective portfolio diversifier!

5/ Square’s willingness to hold bitcoin on its balance sheet as a treasury asset speaks to:

(1) the changing landscape that treasurers must navigate, and;
(2) their ability to manage the operational, risk, and compliance requirements of holding bitcoin directly