Here’s my thoughts with BTC lending as this cycle heats up. During the previous cycle we saw BTC prices jump from 10,000 to 20,000 in 16 days. This means that if the borrower overcollateralized with an LTV of 50%, their escrow will be liquidated (unless margin is met)...1/
More from Bitcoin
Another #FreeLoveFriday. So far, I’ve covered Bitcoin, Mastercoin/Omni, and last week ChainLink and the importance of decentralized oracles. Today, let’s talk about one of the most fascinating projects in crypto - @MakerDAO
In my thread about Mastercoin, I briefly touched on the vital role fiat-backed stablecoins play in crypto markets, but there’s a catch with them:
The counterparty risk of a third-party holding fiat in reserves.
Enter MakerDAO, which set out to create a decentralized, collateral-backed cryptocurrency, DAI, that would be “soft-pegged” to the U.S. Dollar using the power of algorithms. In crypto tradition, its supporters said trust game theory, not operators.
In 2017, MakerDAO published a whitepaper describing a system where anyone could create DAI by leveraging ETH as collateral to create Collateralized Debt Positions. Essentially, you take out a digital USD loan against your crypto.
The game theory of the system is structured such that DAI issuance is controlled to keep the price pegged to $1.00. In essence, it buffers the fluctuations of the underlying collateral to create a synthetic dollar bill.
Back with another #FreeLoveFriday. Last time, we covered how Mastercoin/@Omni_Layer pioneered digital asset issuance on blockchains. Today, let\u2019s discuss @Chainlink and the vital role it plays in connecting blockchains to the real world. https://t.co/0poYIBtGrt
— Emin G\xfcn Sirer (@el33th4xor) January 22, 2021
In my thread about Mastercoin, I briefly touched on the vital role fiat-backed stablecoins play in crypto markets, but there’s a catch with them:
The counterparty risk of a third-party holding fiat in reserves.
Enter MakerDAO, which set out to create a decentralized, collateral-backed cryptocurrency, DAI, that would be “soft-pegged” to the U.S. Dollar using the power of algorithms. In crypto tradition, its supporters said trust game theory, not operators.
In 2017, MakerDAO published a whitepaper describing a system where anyone could create DAI by leveraging ETH as collateral to create Collateralized Debt Positions. Essentially, you take out a digital USD loan against your crypto.
The game theory of the system is structured such that DAI issuance is controlled to keep the price pegged to $1.00. In essence, it buffers the fluctuations of the underlying collateral to create a synthetic dollar bill.
1/ outlook for bitcoin: positive 🚀
in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions
disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at
2/ let's start w sentiment ☺️
first, investor sentiment:
✅ @blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
✅ @RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
✅JPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:
🚨 most important indicator is the forward curve
normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.
this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish 🐂📈 despite funding rate increase!
4/ sentiment drives demand. so DEMAND next.
💸 let's talk fund flows
🤑 our research shows $359M of inflows into crypto products last week alone (https://t.co/6Kky96m3ob)
🤑 our @CoinSharesCo @xbtprovider ETPs saw $200M trading volume on jan
4/ let's talk bitcoin fundamentals
post-halving, 900 BTC mined per day, 312,000 this year.
👀 47M millionaires. 21M bitcoin.
🏆 collectibles selling at all time highs. bitcoin is the ultimate collector's item. (see
in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions
disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at
2/ let's start w sentiment ☺️
first, investor sentiment:
✅ @blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
✅ @RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
✅JPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:
🚨 most important indicator is the forward curve
normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.
this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish 🐂📈 despite funding rate increase!
4/ sentiment drives demand. so DEMAND next.
💸 let's talk fund flows
🤑 our research shows $359M of inflows into crypto products last week alone (https://t.co/6Kky96m3ob)
🤑 our @CoinSharesCo @xbtprovider ETPs saw $200M trading volume on jan
4/ let's talk bitcoin fundamentals
post-halving, 900 BTC mined per day, 312,000 this year.
👀 47M millionaires. 21M bitcoin.
🏆 collectibles selling at all time highs. bitcoin is the ultimate collector's item. (see
Ok, so what is the significance of the @lagarde statement on bitcoin?
We were offered a very open insight (but slightly flawed analysis) into top level policy perspective behind the crack down on selfhosted wallets.
https://t.co/1LTzrxHbgs 1/32
'It is a speculative asset, by any account. If you look at the price movements... '
It starts with an economic price perspective and we can learn that ECB is closely monitoring this price movement as one of the many indicators.
So we are in the classic central bank frame 2/32
'Those who thought it would turn into a currency. Sorry, it is an asset not a currency.'
Here she summarises a classic debate on what is currency and what is needed for that. Based on the holy three: unit of account, means of payment, store of value. 3/32
The summary is classic, but too narrow and does not incorporate the wider financial history viewpoints on money, currencies and the way we pay. 4/32
ECB overlooks the de facto unit of account role of bitcoin, having been used to 200 years of having cash around whic is both the unit of account and a means of payment. 5/32
We were offered a very open insight (but slightly flawed analysis) into top level policy perspective behind the crack down on selfhosted wallets.
https://t.co/1LTzrxHbgs 1/32
ECB President Christine Lagarde called for global regulation of #Bitcoin, saying the digital currency had been used for money laundering activities in some instances and that any loopholes needed to be closed. Follow #ReutersNext updates here: https://t.co/4MgFy4jnw5 pic.twitter.com/qlBtoDuZLW
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 13, 2021
'It is a speculative asset, by any account. If you look at the price movements... '
It starts with an economic price perspective and we can learn that ECB is closely monitoring this price movement as one of the many indicators.
So we are in the classic central bank frame 2/32
'Those who thought it would turn into a currency. Sorry, it is an asset not a currency.'
Here she summarises a classic debate on what is currency and what is needed for that. Based on the holy three: unit of account, means of payment, store of value. 3/32
The summary is classic, but too narrow and does not incorporate the wider financial history viewpoints on money, currencies and the way we pay. 4/32
ECB overlooks the de facto unit of account role of bitcoin, having been used to 200 years of having cash around whic is both the unit of account and a means of payment. 5/32