Here’s my thoughts with BTC lending as this cycle heats up. During the previous cycle we saw BTC prices jump from 10,000 to 20,000 in 16 days. This means that if the borrower overcollateralized with an LTV of 50%, their escrow will be liquidated (unless margin is met)...1/

As it's yet again been one of those light news weeks for #Bitcoin, let's get down to brass tacks. Bitcoin is now the 6th... largest... currency in the world. ✊ It's 7th if you include gold. This is quarterly update #11.

2/ For 12 years the world's been trying to understand #Bitcoin, forget Bitcoin, legitimize Bitcoin, criticize Bitcoin, love Bitcoin, hate Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a protocol, it does what it does. But if you want to speak of its value as money, you gotta understand the monetary base.

3/ What follows isn't a lesson in stimulus or bailouts, whatever the world faces. It's an attempt at painting the monetary landscape around the globe. This is an exercise in perspective. The dollars, euros, and yen we're all familiar with, collectively, are worth $27 trillion.

4/ As many know, the response from governments worldwide to Covid-19 has been drastic, so expect big moves in the data.

5/ Gold & silver is base money of the past. Government fiat is base money today. It comprises both physical cash, *and* a digital cash component. Bitcoin may be base money of the future. Before we show the charts, it's important to clarify exactly what basic money is.

With Philadelphia now up, the billboard photo thread that teaches those about #Bitcoin as an alternative to our broken financial system is complete

Those in the 12 Federal Reserve Bank cities who see them are directed to the thread below as copied from @BTCvsFED ⬇️

Not long ago, the dollar was backed by gold

This meant you could redeem your dollar for gold & the government had to have enough gold to match the number of dollars they printed

“The Gold Standard” ended in 1971 b/c the US ran low on gold & needed more $ for war & welfare

Without a cap on how much money could be printed, The Federal Reserve (USA’s central bank) was now free to create unlimited quantities of dollars

When the Fed prints money, inflation occurs & prices go up b/c all dollars are worth less

If your earnings don't keep up w/ the rate of inflation the purchasing power of your dollars melts away

Imagine the economy is a pizza & The Fed gives you a slice ($1)

When printing new money, they cut your🍕into more pieces to give out

Yes, you still have a slice ($1) but you’re hungrier b/c that $1 doesn’t go as far

Many Americans hold dollars b/c they can’t afford a home & w/ bills to pay they can’t risk the stock market

Meanwhile, the wealthy move $ into real estate & other assets that better hold value

For those who were trading in 2017 or earlier bull markets this may be obvious, but these kinds of corrections are typically driven by overleveraged longs, not whales dumping on you. That hasn’t started yet. Let me break down why it happens and why it is worse on the weekends.

I should probably have data to back this up, but I haven’t kept up to date with the latest trading data so much of this is based on intuition and experience trading through 2016-2018. If you have data that invalidates this please provide it, happy to be wrong here!

Firstly in an early bull market you have some OG holders taking profit around previous ATH, they have “learned their lesson” and are trying to not get rekt like last time. Once they finish taking some profits or hedging they are riding this up to multiples of previous ATH.

For example I sold around 5-10% of my ETH into stables between $500-$1200, over $1,200 you would need to claw it out of my cold dead hands before we hit $3k. If we don’t get there this cycle (we will) then I will just keep holding. I know a lot of people who did the same.

The problem with this is that the new money coming in and pushing the price up is highly leveraged, and the people with the most conviction are mainly holding and so while they might buy some dips they probably don’t have the dry powder to soak up huge liquidated positions.