There seems to be a lot of short-term pain coming $BABA's way: lower consumption due to the lock-downs, another wave of regulation in the fintech sphere, cloud as a matter of national security and an increased focus on state-owned cloud providers.

$JD Health and $BABA AliHealth

$JD Health and $BABA Ali Health are $JD and $BABA's newest competition ground and the two biggest online medical platforms in China . Here is a thread on the things you need to know for $JD health and $Ali health.

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1. Problem
China have MANY medical problems. These include: poor structure of the Chinese medical system, inadequate/unequal resources, long waiting time, expensive medical services, sub-par medical quality and insufficient or unskilled medical staff.

2. Long waiting time
It is very inconvenient to visit a doctor in China unless you go to expensive private ones. There is not a clear distinction between a GP and a specialist, causing many elderlies, to crowd the hospital even when they only have a small medical issue.

2.1 A typical hospital visit in China may take up to 2-3 hours, half a day, or even a full day. You can basically image a Chinese hospital is like your favorite next door grocery stores constantly at 120%-200% capacity.

3. Medical Expenditure
Although the Chinese medical system has been improving, it is still unorganised and inefficient, causing medical services/medicine to be ‘expensive’, especially to low-income earners in China. Medical service is more expensive in China than the US % wise.

1/

$BABA in their most recent investor presentation reported the China cloud market size in 2020 at $32B of which they have a market share of ~30% which equated to $11B in revenues FY21.

Now here’s where it gets pretty crazy …

2/

They estimate the China cloud market size in 2025 to be $154B which is a 37% CAGR.

If $BABA maintain ~30% market share that will be $46B in revenues from the cloud business in FY25. Over 4x the current revenue for Alibaba cloud.

3/

Western cloud businesses like AWS and Azure are valued at ~15x sales or more by most analysts.

An equivalent multiple to $BABA cloud in 2025 would give a value of $693b which is over double the current market cap for Alibaba.

4/

If we put a 50% discount on the cloud business in FY25 for regulatory concerns and use a 7x sales multiple .. we still get to the current market cap in value.

Cloud is only ~9% of LTM revenues for $BABA, yet the FY25 value of cloud is potentially equal to the market cap.

In 2021, $BABA increased their cloud infrastructure market share to ~38%, stealing market share from $TCEHY & Huawei who have ~17% share each.

The cloud industry in China is forecasted to grow at >30% CAGR into 2025.

$DADA and $JD

$DADA's goal is to empower stores to have the ability to deliver everything to their customers within an hour on-demand. $JD owns 51% of $DADA. Here is a thread on the things you need to know as a $DADA or $JD investor.

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1. The Chinese E-commerce Market – Growth
The China E-commerce market has grown rapidly over the past decade and is poised to continue to grow for the coming decades.

2. China E-commerce as a % of total sales
Despite strong growth, Chinese E-commerce share has only taken up 24.9% of the total retail sales in consumer goods in 2020. There is still great potential in the coming 5-10 years in Chinese E-commerce.

3. The 3 phrases of E-commerce in China
The first phrase of E-commerce is when products are delivered in days, the second phrase delivered under 24 hours, and the third phrase, ‘on-demand’, products are being delivered within an hour. China is currently entering the third phase.

4. On-Demand Delivery Orders
China has experienced rapid growth in total on-demand delivery orders over the past couple years. As of 2019, there are more than 18 billion total on-demand orders delivered, a growth of 36.93%.

$BABA will be $400 by 2024 EOY…$150s is an absolute steal if you’ve got the intelligence & guts to go against the crowd that knows next to nothing about it 🤷🏼‍♂️