BC ALL
Saved by @anilbajpai

1. Why am I extremely nervous about this market ? This was my POV which I had put forth on a fabulous discussion on CH on Thursday where I argued in front of a distinguished panel @anishteli @Prashanth_Krish @VohiCapital @lonelycrowd @deepakshenoy

 2. I am putting this here on the request of some of my friends who missed the discussion. While all my distinguished panelists made several excellent points on the Bullish side, it was left to me to play the Devil's Advocate for most part of the time... alone. 😳
3. Today, a feeling of Deja vu prevails since situation similar to Dec'07 when India was the flavor of the season & was making newer highs whereas Global mkts led by US & Europe had topped out in Oct & China bubble had been pricked also around the same time.
4. While there was all round euphoria the FIIs were relentless sellers while the Non Institutional players were picking up the slack then as it is now
5. While the Nifty had hit 6k on Nov.1st '07 and was forming a toppish pattern between 6k & 6.3 k over the next several weeks, it was the midcaps & small caps which were where the Euphoria was.
6. I had participated on the short side, selling into the euphoria & was badly being burnt, while this time I had actually long positions in "kachra" stocks a couple of weeks ago , which I had switched to Blue chips : ITC, Reliance; HDFC Bank & TCS as an experiment.
7. Had proposed to end the experiment on Friday16th coinciding with the Zomato Issue, to sell everything, except ITC positions both delivery as well as trading. ( I have done exactly that).
8. I did not have any Short positions even though I was extraordinarily bearish since I was waiting for further confirmation. At the close of Friday I still don't have any short positions.
9. I noticed that on Feb 16th 2021, Nikkei & HSI have topped out, locally its BN which has done so. Noticeably many blue chips like HDFC twins, Maruti, Hero, Bajaj, M&M, Kotak are down more than 10 % & Nifty itself is up just 3% above the prev high ( again similar to 2007 )
10. Liquidity which is the main driver will be sucked out by the Mega IPOs & SEBI rules of margining which will come into effect Sep1st which will tighten the noose further.
11. Observation of Cash Market T/O shows that Non Institutional share is now 70 % which was around 54 % just 5 years ago. In F&O its increased to 68 % vis a vis 63 % 5 years ago, clearly edging out Institutions, which is a dangerous sign.
12. Overall turnover in both cash & Derivatives dropping steadily , esp in F&O where volumes in Nifty are regularly at multi year lows.
13. Macro Indicators, like High Inflation, Low growth in IIP, reduction in GST collections, rise in NPAs & general economic malaise indicating Stagflation.
14. Poor Fundamentals, shaky Technical indicators, Euphoric sentiment, no follow up buying in big blue chips, Low volumes, Liquidity fast drying up ,High levels of complacency among FMs, History, Anecdotal information, my experience & gut feel make me very very scared.
15. POST SCRIPT: Will change my mind only if there is a "WHITE TIGER" event ( Opposite of Black Swan) i.e. like Sep '19 when Corp Tax was reduced or '21 Budget. Hence, only the FM can make me change my mind, since I am not expecting any positive surprises on the Global Front😊

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Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
RANI GAIDINLIU:THE LESSER KNOWN FREEDOM FIGHTER

Rani Gaidinliu joined the freedom struggle at 13 &was sentenced to life imprisonment at 16."We r free people—the White should not rule over us.”Thus calling out to her Zeliangrong tribesmen was the voice of 13yr-old Rani Gaidinliu.


She joined the freedom struggle in the present-day Northeast India. Today, her struggle is lost in history as most of her countrymen wouldn’t even have heard her name. B'coz our history textbooks tell us that only Mahatma Gandhi &Pandit Nehru got India its Independence.


At 16 yrs of age, this valiant girl was sentenced to life imprisonment for leading a movement to drive out the colonial rulers from Manipur and Nagaland. Nevertheless, she was released in 1947 after India’s independence and was given the title ,"Rani of Nagas".


EARLY LIFE AND HERAKA MOVEMENT

Gaidinliu belonged to the Rongmei clan of the Zeliangrong tribe in the Tamenglong district of western Manipur. Born on January 26, 1915, she was fifth among eight children.


Her native village was Nungkao, which is present day Tamenglong distt. Brought up in a specially backward region,she couldn't receive any formal education. However,this didn't stop her from joining the freedom struggle. At the age of 10 she came under the influence of her cousin.
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JayneshKasliwal
JayneshKasliwal
@JayneshKasliwal
ULTIMATE GUIDE TO 21 and 200 Moving Average
SUNDAY THREAD 🔖
A trend Following System That will Help You Improve Trading immensely.

RETWEET AND SHARE 🔄
@kuttrapali26 @AmitabhJha3
#stocks #StockMarket
1/n

Moving averages
EMA and SMA
1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is similar to Simple Moving Average (SMA), measuring trend direction over a period of time.
2. However, whereas SMA simply calculates an average of price data, EMA applies more weight to data that is more current
2/


21 EMA : SHORT TERM TREND
1. Calculates the Average Price of past 21 days
2. A stock above 21 ema is in strong momentum , which will give pullbacks to 21 ema again and again.
3. Stock above 21 ema should never be shorted so as to stay with the trend
3/n

3. A stock which moves 10-15% above 21 ema will be too extended and hence will generally pullback
Stocks take dynamic support on 21 ema
4. You can Short only if its too extended like 15 to 20% from 21 ema ( Not advised )
#ADANIPOWER:
#pnbhousing
4/n


1. Whenever 21 ema is sloping upwards its called uptrend
2. Whenever 21 ema is sloping downwards its called dowtrend
3. Whenever 21 ema is sideways its called consolidation
⏫Buy in uptrend
⏬Sell in downtrend
Examples:
5/n
MOVINGAVERAGES , MOVING AVERAGE 20021 , ALL
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Naval
Naval
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How to Get Rich (without getting lucky):

Seek wealth, not money or status. Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep. Money is how we transfer time and wealth. Status is your place in the social hierarchy.

Understand that ethical wealth creation is possible. If you secretly despise wealth, it will elude you.

Ignore people playing status games. They gain status by attacking people playing wealth creation games.

You’re not going to get rich renting out your time. You must own equity - a piece of a business - to gain your financial freedom.
LIFE , STARTUPS , NAVAL1
Buzz Chronicles
Buzz Chronicles
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@SaveToBookmarks Hola! Sure. Original tweet by @AnJamison: "@JeffJacksonNC @buzz\_chronicles @buzz\\\_chronicles @buzz_chronicles save as ca...". Enjoy 👉

Hi! You can find it here. Original tweet by @SaveToBookmarks: "@AnJamison @JeffJacksonNC @buzz @buzz_chronicles @pdfmakerapp @Readwiseio @threa...". Enjoy 👉
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professorstam.eth
professorstam.eth
@ProfessorStam
I worked in bank liquidity and treasury for the better part of the last decade, and there is one very interesting risk factor from the SVB collapse that I do not think we have ever witnessed before in modern finance, a 🧵:

First, some context. Following the 2008 financial crisis where a massive driver of stress was caused by low quality assets littering the balance sheets of massive institutions, the regulators sought to create a framework to ensure all banks were verifiably sound.

This meant forcing Federally registered banks to conform to capital and liquidity ratios. If they did not comply, they would not be allowed to issue dividends or buy back stocks, hurting the value of their enterprise.

There was the introduction of the concept of RWA, or risk weighted assets. A simple way to think of these ratios is, the riskier your asset base on a weighted basis, the more high quality capital (think cash) you would need to hold to stay in compliance.

Not only were banks required to regularly be in compliance with these ratios as a going concern, but needed to prove they could maintain certain limits when met with a time of stress across a number of incrementally adverse scenarios.
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A thread on an interesting report by Goldman Sachs' Peter Oppenheimer, the bank's chief global equity strategist. He points out that Goldman's "Bear Market Risk Indicator" is looking ominous.


There are three factors that suggest that the recent stability could evaporate and that equities are "about to enter a sustained bear market", Oppenheimer says.

First is the fact that growth, inflation and interest rate outlook is unfriendly for equities.


Second is that greater volatility, such as multiple corrections and new peaks (which we've seen in 2018) tend to presage a full bear market.


Here is Goldman's data showing how falls and bounces tend to come ahead of "the dramatic final fall".
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Enigma
Enigma
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On December 25 Mr Pool retweeted August 16 message about the Phoenix and that the worst was still on the horizon to come. 1/*


Maybe now we can assume that November 3 message meant "FUD" nor "FUN". Putting the word in capital letters seems to indicate the aspect the word fud has in our space, FUD. 2/*


Brad started it on December 22 (1/3 posts (Don't say? Sure) = 13 = Plan B). 3/*


And immediately the SEC followed dropping the bomb (1.3 billions (Don't say? Sure) = 13 = Plan B). 4/*


FUD materializes, Bitstamp is one of the first that haltes XRP trading and so on. 5/*
FOR LATER READ
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John Hayward
John Hayward
@Doc_0
Funny, before the election I recall lefties muttering the caravan must have been a Trump setup because it made the open borders crowd look so bad. Why would the pro-migrant crowd engineer a crisis that played into Trump's hands? THIS is why. THESE are the "optics" they wanted.


This media manipulation effort was inspired by the success of the "kids in cages" freakout, a 100% Stalinist propaganda drive that required people to forget about Obama putting migrant children in cells. It worked, so now they want pics of Trump "gassing children on the border."

There's a heavy air of Pallywood around the whole thing as well. If the Palestinians can stage huge theatrical performances of victimhood with the willing cooperation of Western media, why shouldn't the migrant caravan organizers expect the same?

It's business as usual for Anarchy, Inc. - the worldwide shredding of national sovereignty to increase the power of transnational organizations and left-wing ideology. Many in the media are true believers. Others just cannot resist the narrative of "change" and "social justice."

The product sold by Anarchy, Inc. is victimhood. It always boils down to the same formula: once the existing order can be painted as oppressors and children as their victims, chaos wins and order loses. Look at the lefties shrieking in unison about "Trump gassing children" today.
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Andrey \uf8ff Azimov
Andrey  Azimov
@AndreyAzimov
The best way to know if people like your product is NOT:

- Have a lot of emails in the waiting list
- Become #1 on PH
- Become #1 of HN or Reddit
- Have people that saing "I'll pay"
- Have a lot of free users

The best way to know if they're actually pay for it.

The only thing that matters is your product providing a value, and you can't know this until people will pay money for it.

We can have a first signal of a product/market fit after the launch by check how many sales we've got in the first 24h. Some scale:

200+ This has a high potential.
100+: This has a potential.
50+: Some people need it.
10+: People almost don't need it.
0+: People don't need it.

This is for a single time payment product. For a subscription probably it should be less because people hate subscription.

And obviously, you should have a lot of traffic like 3-5k+.

Here is a stat for my products (macOS apps) for the first 24h after the launch:
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Justin Kan
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1/ Throughout my startup career, I’ve seen many founders have an aversion to sales. This is a mistake that can kill your startup.

2/ Sales is often viewed as either a saving grace or proof that the product isn’t good enough (because it should sell itself). Neither are ever true. Some common mistakes that result in...

3/ Mistake 1: Hire a sales rep before reaching product/market fit to get your initial batch of customers. This is a mistake because founders need to work through their MVP with early adopters to truly understand what it is they’re selling.

4/ Mistake 2: Reach product/market fit, need to scale, and rely entirely on self-serve. For enterprise products that require big commitments and internal shifts, almost no product is self-explanatory enough to sell itself.

5/ Mistake 3: Make a first sales hire who isn’t scrappy enough to help mold the sales process from scratch. Some salespeople are amazing at their jobs, but not cut out to establish the processes that others end up following. This skillset is what @rdedatta calls a “sales ninja”.
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